CLOSING BELL

Good afternoon, and happy Friday, and happy SpaceX public listing today, for those who celebrate. The market rebounded to where it started the week, after the largest stock offering in human history swept the world — and the Stocktwits community — like a tidal wave.

Elon Musk became a trillionaire, as his rocket propelled stock raised $75B, opening at $150/share and jumping over 30% at one point before settling down.

In war news, the U.S. is still claiming talks are underway. The G7 will meet this upcoming week in Geneva Switcherland, and the president has said his reps VP JD Vance and Steve Witkoff may be ready Sunday to sign a ‘memorandum of understanding’ as the Iranian foreign minister put it. Oil futures were down nearly 4% on the news.

But that’s a side show compared to the real shabang.

Stocktwits chatter is almost all SpaceX and its blast radius. $SPCX is +23.0% with extremely bullish sentiment and extremely high message volume. The proxy space basket was getting punished: $RKLB -9.4%, $ASTS -14.0%, $DXYZ -21.8%, $NASA -9.1%, and $SATS -11.8%. The clean read: traders wanted space exposure until the real ticker showed up.

Today’s Briefing:

• After the Bell: SpaceX made the biggest public-market entrance ever, then crushed the space proxy trade on arrival

• Stocks: Roku found buyout chatter, while Trade Desk got relief from its Publicis dispute

• Macro News: Hormuz deal hopes knocked oil lower and put energy risk premium on watch

• Pops and Drops & More

AFTER THE BELL
Trillionaire Liftoff 🚀

SpaceX finally hit public markets Friday, opening above its IPO price in the largest debut ever and ripping through the afternoon. The pop minted Elon Musk as the world’s first trillionaire while 4,400 employees, welders and cooks included, joined the millionaire club with zero lockup. Morningstar says fair value is less than half the IPO price, and the lockup calendar puts a date on the bear case.

The memes for fresh millionaire cafeteria workers aside, it was a ripping day. The stock raised more than twice the second highest IPO ever, Saudi Aramco in 2019, and with the amount of pent-up demand on the sidelines waiting to get a bite, it might be volatile for a while.

The RIP: $SPCX ( ▲ 19.22% ) opened at $150, +11% above the $135 IPO price, and ran as high as $176.52, briefly topping a $2.25T market cap. The $75B raise came against $250B+ in demand, with 2025 revenue of $18.7B and a $4.9B net loss.

It was a day to remember, and the Stocktwits stream won’t forget it- we saw a 10k% increase in message volume in the stock, three times the next highest symbol traffic on the site. Messages on SPCX made up the second most messages per ticker all week, behind just SPY, the market main page.

Our users, as always, offered the full spectrum of retail investing takes on the massive events unfolding. Here were some top takes based on trending likes:

• @StocktwitsPolls: “Do you think SpaceX ($SPCX) will outperform the S&P 500 ($SPY) over the next 5 years?” (post)

• @MS_Tammy: “$SPCX I got a stater ..1000 shares soon as open,,” (post)

• @OG_Monkey_Banana_Genius: “$SPCX requested shares through multiple platforms. Got a huge allocation on HOOD. A whole 1 share out of my r…” (post)

Want the full breakdown: Mars math, Morningstar’s bearish by comparison $63/share valuation cold shower, the lockup calendar? Look no further than today’s special edition. Read it before the sympathy basket opens Monday.

Get the full special edition →

SPONSORED BY DEFIANCE ETFS
SpaceX Is Public. $SPCL Is the First and Only ETF With 2X SpaceX Exposure on IPO Day.

SpaceX is public! $SPCX made its long-awaited Nasdaq debut today, and $SPCL was already on the launchpad.

The Defiance Daily 2X Space ETF (Cboe: SPCL) now seeks 200% of the daily performance of SpaceX, beginning today on IPO day. $SPCX exposure was established at the $135 IPO price, making SPCL the world’s first and only ETF with 2X SpaceX exposure on IPO day.

Already listed. Already trading. One ticker, double the daily move, no margin account required.

SPCL resets its 2X exposure each day and trades intraday just like a stock, so your daily result is tied to a single session, up or down.

Defiance has built first-mover leveraged ETFs on names like Oracle and Seagate, and SPCL brings that playbook to SpaceX.

Short-term investment. Leveraged funds carry significant risk. The Fund is not suitable for all investors. The Fund is designed to be utilized only by knowledgeable investors who understand the potential consequences of seeking daily leveraged (2X) investment results, understand the risks associated with the use of leverage, and are willing to monitor their portfolios frequently. The Fund is not intended to be used by, and is not appropriate for, investors who do not intend to actively monitor and manage their portfolios. For periods longer than a single day, the Fund will lose money if the underlying security’s performance is flat, and it is possible that the Fund will lose money even if the underlying security’s performance increases over a period longer than a single day. An investor could lose the full principal value of his/her investment within a single day.

An investment in the Fund is not a direct investment in SpaceX.

Distributed by Foreside Fund Services, LLC.

*3rd Party Ad. Not an offer or recommendation by Stocktwits. See disclosure here.

CRYPTO
Crypto’s fake SpaceX access had a very real Friday problem: the IPO happened, underwriters handed out crumbs, and several tokenized “pre-IPO” products had to refund users instead of delivering shares.

Cryptotwits has the full breakdown on who got rugged by allocation math, who actually launched real tokenized SpaceX exposure, and why the whole thing looked suspiciously CFD-ish from the jump.

Read Cryptotwits here →

STOCKS
Space Proxies Lose Orbit 🛰️

SpaceX, the launch and satellite-internet giant behind Starlink, finally became tradable Friday. That gave investors direct access to the story, and the old public proxy basket got hit hard.

The RIP: $SPCX closed +19.2% at $160.95 after pricing at $135. The proxy trade sold off: $DXYZ fell -25.1%, $ASTS -15.5%, $LUNR -13.1%, $RDW -11.5%, $SATS -11.0%, $RKLB -10.8%, and $NASA -9.4%.

The market’s message was brutal but logical: scarcity got repriced. $DXYZ and $NASA lost part of their SpaceX-access premium, $RKLB became the clean public launch comp with a Nasdaq-100 catalyst, $ASTS kept its direct-to-device bull case, and $SATS turned into a messy NAV debate around its pending SpaceX stake. 🛰️

Community was split across the basket: $SPCX was extremely bullish with extremely high message volume, while $ASTS leaned bearish, $RKLB was neutral, and $DXYZ, $SATS, $NASA, and $RDW stayed bullish despite the drawdown.

• @Space_Cowbell said: “$RKLB now that SpaceX IPO out of the way, can go back to focusing on big RKLB triggers” (post)

• @Splicinglass said: “$ASTS -14% on launch week isn’t a fundamental story. It’s a gift.” (post)

• @BIG_BEAR_ said: “$DXYZ the scarcity premium is gone today, retail can just buy SpaceX directly” (post)

• @campb029 said: “$SATS doesn’t SATS own 262m Spacex shares worth $43B as we speak?” (post)

Roku Finds Bankers 📺

Roku, the streaming platform behind connected-TV devices, branded TVs, and its ad-supported channel, ripped Friday after Bloomberg said the company is in talks to sell itself. The headline put the living-room ad platform back in play after a long post-pandemic reset.

The RIP: $ROKU ( ▲ 20.08% ) traded +20%, near $142.60, hit a fresh 52-week high at $144.48, and ran on 8.1M shares, about 3.25x normal volume. Bloomberg said the company had a $19.9B market value before the latest move. Community is bullish, message volume is high across ~134.2K Watchers.

• @gpaisa said: “$ROKU BUYOUT?” (post)

• @Munsen said: “$ROKU Evercore bumps to $185” (post)

The buyer logic is simple: Roku reaches more than 100M households, and its platform segment generated $4.1B, or 87.5% of revenue, last year. The catch is control, since founder and CEO Anthony Wood owns 11.6% and holds majority voting power through Class B shares. 📺

Weigh in on $ROKU: bid or bait →

Trade Desk Settles Up 📺

The Trade Desk, the ad-tech platform brands use to buy digital ads across the open internet, rose Friday after its dispute with Publicis was reportedly resolved.

The RIP: $TTD ( ▲ 2.01% ) traded near $19.28, touched a fresh 52-week low at $18.31, and ran on 30.6M shares, about 1.5x normal volume. The stock remains far below its $91.45 52-week high.

The issue was with Publicis, one of the big global ad agency holding companies. Back in March, Publicis told clients to stop using Trade Desk after a third-party audit raised questions around billing, fee structures, and data access. Trade Desk said giving the auditor the requested data would violate confidentiality agreements, while analysts framed the fight as a bigger agency-margin dispute over who gets to charge what in programmatic ad buying.

Community is bullish, message volume is high across ~48.2K Watchers.

• @Humanistic said: “$TTD this could really squeeze. If we get above the 20.51 mark, I believe its clear blue skies” (post)

Sound off in $TTD: relief or reset →

MACRO NEWS
Hormuz Deal Tease 🛢️

Washington and Tehran are suddenly talking like a Strait of Hormuz deal could land near next week’s G7 summit, which is trader-speak for “maybe stop panic-pricing oil.” The catch: Iran’s final blessing still has to come from leadership that has spent the war in hiding.

The RIP: Brent fell 3.2% Friday to below $88 a barrel, still up nearly 45% this year. The G7 runs June 15-17. The interim ceasefire would last around two months. Hormuz normally handles one fifth of global oil and LNG flows and roughly 140 ships per day.

Trump went from threatening new strikes Thursday to floating a deal Friday, which is either diplomacy moving fast or the world’s most expensive group chat. The obvious trade sits in energy and shipping: $XLE if crude risk premium fades, $XOM and $CVX if barrels keep moving. The tell is not the signing photo, it is whether ships actually move through Hormuz without a toll fight, mine scare, or Israeli spoiler headline. 🛢️

TRENDING ON STOCKTWITS
Pops & Drops

• $ARM ( ▲ 11.27% )  Arm: surged +11% after AI chip rally hit fresh records

• $AMKR ( ▲ 8.71% )  Amkor ⚡: jumped +9% after memory strength lifted chip-packaging names

• $MOS ( ▲ 7.59% )  Mosaic: climbed +8% after fertilizer names rebounded with commodity tape

• $RIVN ( ▲ 7.85% )  Rivian ⚡: popped +7% after R2 deliveries reset growth hopes

• $PSKY ( ▼ 0.19% )  Paramount Skydance ⚡: popped +5% after media deal speculation lifted shares

• $XOVR ( ▼ 0.7% )  ERShares ⚡: slid -2% after SpaceX proxy trade unwound

• $CTRA ( ▼ 8.46% )  Coterra: fell -8% after crude risk premium faded hard

• $SATS ( ▼ 10.97% )  EchoStar: dropped -11% after SpaceX stake discount widened

• $DXYZ ( ▼ 25.14% )  Destiny Tech 100 ⚡: cratered -25% after SpaceX public listing killed proxy premium

ST EDITOR’S PICKS
Links That Don’t Suck 🌐

🤑  Jim Cramer Wants A 30% SpaceX IPO Pop, Not A Cerebras-Style Surge: ‘People Hang On To It And Buy More’

😨 Robinhood Clients Face Issues in Early Moments of SpaceX Trading

💰️ The Space X IPO …Huge Win for American Capital Markets, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan and the Money Multiplier

📺️ Paramount-WBD merger wins approval from DOJ, source says

👀 Iran war live: Pakistan’s PM says ‘final text’ of US-Iran deal agreed

Get In Touch 📬

Want to see some change? Email Kevin Travers feedback, follow him on Stocktwits. Refer a friend for this quarter’s edition of The RIP Forecast!

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