🪦 AMD eats the bear case, S&P hits new highs
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CLOSING BELL
Happy Tuesday
The market ended Tuesday in the green, chip stock news sending the S&P 500 to fresh records yet again.
News from the Strait of Hormuz looked grim, the U.S. attempting to safeguard boats through the passageway while trading shots with Iran naval forces, while the Pentagon said the ceasefire was still on. But on Wall Street, fresh updates from PLTR last night, and AMD after the bell Tuesday kept the record high machine running.
Tech was the leading sector, while communications fell.
Today’s Briefing:
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AMD crushed Q1 estimates after the bell and torched the HSBC downgrade that sent it down 5% intraday
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Apple’s reported Intel foundry talks sent $INTC to a 52-week high and lifted the alt-chip trade with it
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Greg Abel’s first Berkshire meeting: no drama, record cash pile, Buffett’s jersey in the rafters
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Pops and Drops & More
AFTER THE BELL
AMD Just Ate the Bear Case for Breakfast 🔴
The stock fell -5% on Tuesday after a HSBC downgrade warned expectations were too high — then AMD reported after the bell and made HSBC look like it hadn’t done its homework.
The RIP: $AMD ( ▲ 16.35% ) surged +5% in extended trading after Q1 adj. EPS of $1.37 beat the $1.29 estimate; revenue hit $10.25B vs. $9.89B expected, up +38% Y/Y. Data center revenue jumped +57% to $5.8B. Q2 guidance of $11.2B crushed the $10.52B consensus.
The community had been running 5:1 bullish Tuesday even as the stock sold off intraday — they were right. CEO Lisa Su said server growth will “accelerate meaningfully” as supply scales to demand, and both OpenAI and Meta have already signed up for AMD’s Helios rack-scale AI system, its first direct rival to Nvidia’s Grace Blackwell.
The bear case — TSMC capacity constraints cap upside — is real, but Q2 guidance this far above consensus suggests AMD is getting more wafer allocation than HSBC modeled. Watch whether the after-hours move holds at open Wednesday; the stock is now up +66% YTD and has more than tripled in a year. At some point the multiple conversations come back. 🔴
Check out the full conversation on Stocktwits ->
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Sentiment: ~40% bullish / 60% bearish — bearish lean despite the AH pop, reading as profit-taking caution after the prior 30% run
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Top posts:
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@mikesterz7 : Don’t ever sell a single share!!!! PT 1000″
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@PashaGainz : long but warning MMs have been “playing this”
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@574TRADER : “$AMD #moon”
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STOCKS
Intel’s Comeback Might Have Just Gotten an Apple Stamp 🔵
Bloomberg reported Tuesday that Apple held exploratory talks with Intel and Samsung about manufacturing its main device processors in the U.S. It was a wake-up call to TSMC that the market treated as a full endorsement of Intel’s foundry revival of Tuesday.
The RIP: $INTC ( ▲ 3.13% ) surged +13% to $108.14, hitting a new 52-week high of $110.48 on volume of 170M shares. The move stacks on top of last week’s Q1 beat — $13.6B revenue, +7% Y/Y — and a fresh analyst upgrade wave from Evercore, Citi, KeyBanc, and Roth with price targets ranging from $95 to $118. The stock is now up +175% YTD.
On Stocktwits, retail was optimistic the rumors were true. “See you at $115 tomorrow,” one user wrote. “Bears are dying on Intel,” said another. The real risk is that there are no orders placed yet, Bloomberg reported Apple is merely investigating. The smartphone maker apparently has active concerns about non-TSMC quality.
$TSM ( ▲ 5.65% ) slipped -1.7% as the anchor-customer thesis cracked. $AAPL ( ▲ 0.78% ) quietly touched all-time highs at $284, retail running 73% bullish, framing the Intel talks as pure supply-chain de-risking with no downside. 🔵
It wasn’t the only name climbing on the news, anyone and everyone that could serve alternative products to TSM was on the way up
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$APLD Applied Digital ⚡: ripped +12%
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$MU Micron ⚡: surged +11%
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$QCOM Qualcomm: popped +11%
STOCKS
Warren Buffett’s Last Show Was Greg Abel’s First 🎩
Greg Abel ran Berkshire’s annual meeting in Omaha over the weekend for the first time as CEO, and the headline is simple: no drama, no surprises, and Wall Street mostly approved.
The RIP: Operating earnings at $BRK.B ( ▲ 0.69% ) jumped +18% Y/Y to $11.35B, insurance underwriting up +28.5%. Cash pile hit a record $397.4B — up from $373B at year-end — as Berkshire sold $24.1B in equities while buying just $15.9B, making it a net seller for a 14th straight quarter. Share buybacks resumed in March but totaled only $235M for the quarter.
Abel literally raised Buffett’s jersey to the rafters with the number 60, and spent a half-hour longer than expected walking through Berkshire’s businesses.
He named Apple, American Express, Moody’s, and Coca-Cola as his “core four” equity anchors, and said AI would only be deployed where it’s “additive.” Buffett sat in the front row, took the mic once to say Abel is doing everything he did “and then some,” and told CNBC separately that this is not the ideal environment to deploy cash — and that he’s never seen markets in a more gambling mood than now.
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TRENDING ON STOCKTWITS
Pops & Drops
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$DGXX ( ▲ 14.87% ) Digi Power X ⚡: surged +29% on momentum with no confirmed fundamental catalyst; low-float, high-volatility name
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$WATT ( ▼ 1.83% ) T Waters: surged +13% after Q1 adj. EPS of $2.70 crushed the $2.31 estimate on $1.27B revenue, $56M above guidance
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$SNDK ( ▼ 0.57% ) Sandisk: jumped +12% after Goldman and Bernstein raised targets to $1,200 and $1,700 on AI storage demand
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$AKAM ( ▲ 1.15% ) Akamai: climbed +12% after Oppenheimer raised its target to $130 ahead of May 7 earnings on cloud infrastructure momentum
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$PYPL ( ▼ 0.71% ) PayPal ⚡: fell -8% after Q2 non-GAAP EPS guidance implied a -9% decline despite a Q1 revenue beat of $8.35B
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$FISV ( ▼ 2.34% ) Fiserv: tumbled -9% after Q1 revenue fell -2% Y/Y to $4.68B, a $50M miss, with organic revenue down -4% and margins sharply compressed
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$HII ( ▼ 3.53% ) Huntington Ingalls: fell -10% after Q1 operating margin compressed to 5.0% from 5.9% and free cash flow hit -$461M
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$SHOP ( ▼ 1.91% ) Shopify ⚡: cratered -16% after Q1 revenue of $3.17B beat but Q2 guidance of +27.5% growth signaled deceleration from 34% — at 85x forward P/E, any slowdown gets punished
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Delivery is expected in Q4, with potential for broader rollout across Marine Corps training centers. This program builds on growing traction for Virtuix’s 360-degree movement technology across the U.S. military, including engagements with the Army, Air Force, and Navy.
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ST EDITOR’S PICKS
Links That Don’t Suck 🌐
🤑 Michael Burry sells GameStop after Ryan Cohen’s hefty eBay bid: ‘Never confuse debt for creativity’
💰️ Hegseth says ‘the ceasefire is not over’ after U.S., Iran exchange fire
👀 INTC Stock Hits Record High As Apple Mulls Using Co’s Chipmaking Skills; TSM Drops
WHAT’S ON DECK
Tomorrow’s Top Things 📋
Macro: ADP Employment Change (Apr) revised (8:15 AM ET), Trade Balance (Mar) (8:30 AM ET), EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report (10:30 AM ET). 📊
Pre-Market Earnings: $DIS Walt Disney, $UBER Uber Technologies Inc, $FUBO Fubotv Inc Class A, $BCRX Biocryst Pharmaceuticals Inc, $CVS Cvs Health Corp, +30 more. ☀️
After-Market Earnings: $SNAP Snap Inc, $BYND Beyond Meat Inc, $NVAX Novavax Inc, $CLOV Clover Health Investments Corp Cla, $VXRT Vaxart Inc, +137 more. 🌙
P.S. You can listen to all of these earnings calls on Stocktwits.
Get In Touch 📬
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