A Week of AI Milestones, & 'The Blip 2.0' Continues. ARD #100

A week of milestones — both here at AI Ramblings Daily and across the AI industry. We’re crossing the 100th podcast here at ARD — my 50th since switching to a daily format, alongside AI: Reset to Zero‘s 1,121st daily post today, come rain or shine. Thank you all for being part of the journey; keep the feedback, comments, likes and subscriptions coming. A quick note: Anthropic’s ‘The Blip 2.0’ continues — tomorrow marks a full week since the US government’s move against the company, and I’ll have more on it this weekend. In other milestones, there are three I’d like to dig into today for the AI Tech Wave — each with my Take first, then my Overall Take.

(1) Apple’s Tim Cook Signals Higher Prices — Even Apple’s Supply-Chain Moat Hits a Breaking Point

MP TAKE: The key quote from Tim Cook to note: “This is a hundred-year flood. I’ve never seen anything like it in any area in over 40 years.” It’s like Stephen Curry saying it’s not as easy to make those three-pointers anymore. This milestone — along with the long-anticipated rise in tech and chip component costs from the AI Tech Wave — means a milestone postponement of the fifty-plus-year trend of declining consumer hardware prices.

That trend ran not just on chip and tech-component efficiencies, but on a unique global supply chain that grew up around computers, smartphones and all other technology — most of it taken for granted, until now. And leveraged China’s unique capacity to work hard, innovate and build at global scale. Cook’s legacy is the most extraordinary supply chain the world has ever seen: even with 30% of the global smartphone market, Apple controls over 70% of the economics. Since Steve Jobs introducing the iPhone to the world in 2007, Apple has employed over 33 million Chinese folk to build all manner of tech that led US global leadership in fields far beyond smartphones. That’s ten million people more than the population of Taiwan. For even Apple to raise the white flag — unable to buy ahead at the scale it needs versus AI-side demand from the Nvidias and AMDs of the world — is a wake-up call. The average device’s memory and storage has gone from 5% to 30-40% of the bill of materials, and this touches everything electronic — not just phones and computers, but refrigerators and cars. The average iPhone is likely to go up over $200 or more, an increase of 20%+. We’re in a very different state of affairs for global tech hardware and software prices, at least through the end of the decade. And that’s a milestone all by itself — with real implications for the US-China geopolitical struggle, since Cook himself notes there’s far more memory and storage supply in China that the current geopolitics keep him from accessing. Not just the non-China oligopoly around SK Hynix and Samsung in South Korea, and Micron here in the US.

Sources, in narrative order: WSJ — Apple to raise prices due to the memory-chip crunch, Tim Cook says. For longtime readers, in narrative order: Apple’s supply-chain moat on tech memory prices in AI-RTZ #1010; global memory shortages of 20%+ through 2030+ in AI-RTZ #1030; and Apple’s MacBook Neo value-computing push in AI-RTZ #1017.

(2) Microsoft Weighs China’s DeepSeek for Copilot — As DeepSeek Ramps Up With New Funding

MP TAKE: That a company of Microsoft’s stature is considering an against-the-geopolitical-winds move — looking at open-source AI from China — is a milestone moment, and one to be applauded, even if it never comes to pass. As I’ve often said in these pages, the long road to prosperity for the US and its tech industry runs through the narrow paths to work with China and its unrivaled manufacturing ecosystems — not without it. That’s the true milestone geopolitical moment: the US and China need to find a way together.

On Microsoft’s own AI strategy with Copilot — and its five-year-plus IP relationship with OpenAI — Microsoft is smartly thinking about ‘Good Enough’ and, importantly, ‘Cheap Enough.’ Customers increasingly want models that are good enough that they don’t shatter operating budgets on a-la-carte pricing for the latest frontier models — which they’ll still use for their most advanced applications. That balance has been core to Microsoft’s success across multiple tech waves, and it doesn’t seem to be changing. On DeepSeek’s funding round: it’s a milestone move for China’s milestone AI company — and an accelerating one for global AI open source. Founder/CEO Liang Wenfeng remains deeply committed to open source globally, despite the obvious attractions of the hybrid models its rivals — OpenAI, Microsoft and Meta among them — are pursuing. Nine of ten big and small Chinese tech companies have reverted to open source; in my view open source takes 80-90% of global AI inference by volume, even if 80-90% of the economics stays with frontier models for the next two or three years.

Sources, in narrative order: Axios — Microsoft weighs DeepSeek for Copilot / Cowork. The Information — China’s DeepSeek raises $7.5B in a uniquely structured $50B+ round. For longtime readers, in narrative order: US companies building on Chinese open-source LLMs in AI-RTZ #923; Nvidia & Apple as potential US open-source champions in AI-RTZ #1089; DeepSeek not faded out in China in AI-RTZ #1062; Nvidia’s Jensen rides Air Force One to China after all in AI-RTZ #1085; ‘Threading the China needle’ (Aug 2023) in AI-RTZ; today’s companion ‘China’s DeepSeek raises $7.4B’ in AI-RTZ #1121; and ‘China’s DeepSeek does more with less’ (Jan 26, 2025) in AI-RTZ #612.

(3) OpenAI Snags OG AI Researcher Noam Shazeer From Google — Presumably for Billions

MP TAKE: OpenAI managing to hire uber AI Researcher Noam Shazeer away from Google — amid Google’s Gemini resurgence — is a sweet reversal of OpenAI’s own ‘Code Red’ last December, after Gemini shook the world of GPT and ChatGPT. Most people don’t know who Noam is, but he was the lead author of the eight Google folks behind the seminal 2017 ‘Attention is all you need’ AI paper that gave the world Transformers (The ending ‘T’ in ChatGPT)— the roadmap that kicked off this whole multi-trillion-dollar AI thing over the last nine years, and the reason OpenAI became OpenAI.

It’s notable because Google itself acqui-hired Noam back from his startup, Character AI, for $2.7 billion in 2024 — so one can imagine what it took for OpenAI to pry him away. He was instrumental in Gemini’s remarkable success to date, which is exactly why Gemini has been so far ahead of where perceptions sat even a year ago. Google still has Demis Hassabis, founder/CEO DeepMind and a deep bench of world-class researchers — but this loss will be felt. It’s a milestone for Google on its trek to a mega-AI IPO this year, and a dent in its ability to lead. A big victory for Sam Altman’s team — and an industry milestone embodied in one individual who keeps shifting where he works. These researchers, by the way, are most attracted by the company they keep, not just the billions.

Sources, in narrative order: The Information — Star Google AI researcher Noam Shazeer joins OpenAI. WSJ — Google paid $2.7 billion to bring back its AI genius (Sept 2024). For longtime readers, in narrative order: OpenAI’s ‘Code Red,’ catalyzed by Google Gemini (Dec 2025) in AI-RTZ #924; Google scaling AI in AI-RTZ #548; and another possible key AI-talent acquihire in AI-RTZ #436.

MP OVERALL TAKE

These milestones today carry mixed glass-half-full and glass-half-empty aspects for the AI industry going forward. The industry faces a unique set of headwinds against the ever-decreasing tech hardware prices we’ve enjoyed for fifty+ years under Moore’s Law — pricing down 40-50% every couple of years while performance went up. That’s now interrupted, and we’re seeing Apple raising a white flag — Stephen Curry conceding the three-pointers aren’t as easy going forward. It’s a milestone over a fifty-year time frame.

MP Take: Even that one step back for Apple is potentially mitigated by its global supply chain, resources and cash to invest ahead of capacity. And the shifting of top AI talent among US companies is a milestone for the companies concerned — but doesn’t change the overall trajectory of US AI tech vs the world. All of it also accelerates the open-source AI trajectory led by the likes of DeepSeek and Microsoft. But the overall BIG milestone needed for AI going forward is the US and China working more together than not. Without that cooperation — even reduced versus prior years — we lose the chance to move the global AI ball forward for billions, and the prospects rise for a balkanized global technology world with a smaller relative global pie of new tech-driven prosperity. Even OpenAI just defended Anthropic to the government on the need to hire foreign AI talent. China’s Xi Jinping coming to the White House this September is an important next step in this possible milestone — and that would be a jarring milestone indeed if we miss it, regardless of AI-talent moves and iPhone price increases in the short term.

Gadget AI — Apple’s 2nd-Generation, Thin iPhone Air in 2027 (2nd Ultra-Wide Camera and More)

Sources, in narrative order: Bloomberg — Apple prepares the second-generation iPhone Air for Spring 2027. For longtime readers: Apple’s AI strategy embedded in its Fall 2025 production launch in AI-RTZ #840.

MP Take: It’s my favorite new iPhone in years — and a second daily-carry alongside my iPhone 17 Pro Max. The first Air took criticism for a lesser battery and a single camera, but Apple signaled a second-generation Air for Spring 2027, as it shifts to launching hardware twice a year rather than once every September. Leaks point to a 2nd ultra-wide camera, possibly a bigger battery, and Apple’s latest A20 chip (the Pro and Air both carry the 12GB of RAM needed for the highest-level Siri AI). Glad it’s getting an extended life, contrary to the negative reviewers. It highlights Apple’s focus on innovating quietly. A milestone update for a milestone phone.

Questions

Q1 — What’s MP’s favorite feature of the iPhone Air?

How it feels to use. It’s tough to point to one thing — of course it’s thin and light — but I love the just bright, ephemeral and effortless feel of using it. It’s like wearing a well-fitted good suit versus an off-the-rack one: you just feel different. It’s more qualitative than any single spec, and that’s my favorite feature.

Q2 — What’s MP’s most wished-for feature in the iPhone Air 2?

Sure — I’ll take the ultra-wide 2nd camera, a better chip, and possibly a bigger battery. Those are nice things, and I look forward to the A20 chip. But my biggest wish: don’t change the ineffable feel of the phone in the new version. Just the feel of it — qualitative, I know, but it’s the kind of thing Apple is good at, and I hope they carry it into the next model.

Full Source Reading —

For the broader context, see the canonical sources for ARD 100 — in today’s narrative order:

Event 1 — Apple’s Tim Cook Signals Higher Prices

• WSJ — Apple to raise prices due to the memory-chip crunch, Tim Cook says

• AI-RTZ #1010 — Apple’s supply-chain moat on tech memory prices

• AI-RTZ #1030 — Global memory shortages of 20%+ through 2030+

• AI-RTZ #1017 — Apple’s MacBook Neo value-computing push

Event 2 — Microsoft Weighs DeepSeek / DeepSeek Funding

• Axios — Microsoft weighs DeepSeek for Copilot / Cowork

• The Information — China’s DeepSeek raises $7.5B in a uniquely structured $50B+ round

• AI-RTZ #923 — US companies building on Chinese open-source LLMs

• AI-RTZ #1089 — Nvidia & Apple as potential US open-source champions

• AI-RTZ #1062 — DeepSeek not faded out in China

• AI-RTZ #1085 — Nvidia’s Jensen rides Air Force One to China after all

• AI-RTZ — ‘Threading the China needle’ (Aug 2023)

• AI-RTZ #1121 — China’s DeepSeek raises $7.4B (today’s companion)

• AI-RTZ #612 — China’s DeepSeek does more with less (Jan 26, 2025)

Event 3 — OpenAI Snags Noam Shazeer From Google

• The Information — Star Google AI researcher Noam Shazeer joins OpenAI

• WSJ — Google paid $2.7 billion to bring back its AI genius (Sept 2024)

• AI-RTZ #924 — OpenAI’s ‘Code Red,’ catalyzed by Google Gemini (Dec 2025)

• AI-RTZ #548 — Google scaling AI

• AI-RTZ #436 — Another possible key AI-talent acquihire

Gadget AI — Apple’s 2nd-Gen iPhone Air (Spring 2027)

• Bloomberg — Apple prepares the second-generation iPhone Air for Spring 2027

• AI-RTZ #840 — Apple’s AI strategy embedded in its Fall 2025 production launch

Shorts Clips from today

Clip 1 — iPhone Air: The Ephemeral Feel

Watch on YouTube Shorts

MP’s favorite feature of the iPhone Air isn’t a spec — it’s how it feels to use. Not just thin and light, but bright, ephemeral and effortless. It’s a second daily-carry alongside the iPhone 17 Pro Max, used for the lighter stuff.

MP Take: It’s like wearing a good suit versus an off-the-rack one — you just feel different. That qualitative feel is the favorite feature, and it’s exactly the kind of thing Apple is good at.

Clip 2 — Apple’s Supply Chain: ‘100-Year Flood’

Watch on YouTube Shorts

Tim Cook’s words to note: “This is a hundred-year flood. I’ve never seen anything like it in any area in over 40 years.” Even Apple’s vaunted global supply-chain moat is hitting a breaking point under AI-driven memory and component demand from the likes of Nvidia and AMD.

MP Take: Cook’s legacy is the most extraordinary supply chain the world has ever seen. For even Apple to raise the white flag is a wake-up call. Memory and storage have gone from 5% to 30-40% of a device’s bill of materials — and this milestone touches everything electronic, not just phones.

Clip 3 — Apple’s New iPhone Air: Twice a Year

Watch on YouTube Shorts

Apple is prepping a second-generation iPhone Air for Spring 2027 — leaks point to a 2nd ultra-wide camera, possibly a bigger battery, and Apple’s latest A20 chip. Notably, Apple is shifting to launching hardware twice a year rather than once every September.

MP Take: It’s my favorite new iPhone in years, and I’m glad it’s getting an extended life, contrary to the negative reviewers. It highlights Apple’s focus on innovating quietly. A milestone update for a milestone phone.

Clip 4 — Apple Warns: iPhone Prices to Rise

Watch on YouTube Shorts

Apple made a preemptive move signaling iPhone and Mac prices are likely to rise this fall, driven by memory and storage shortages from the three big oligopolists — SK Hynix, Samsung and Micron. Estimates point to the next Pro model running a couple of hundred dollars more than last year’s.

MP Take: Apple will do everything it can to keep prices down relative to Android and Windows rivals, with the broadest supply chain and huge resources to buy ahead. But even Apple can’t outmuscle the demand structure coming from AI. Prices are going up, at least through the end of the decade.

About AI Ramblings Daily (ARD), and AI-RTZ

Both are daily. Both are free. Both are about AI. But they’re different mediums carrying different messages.

AI-RTZ is the morning text — a deeper written take on one idea, published by at least 5 AM EST. Today: post #1121.

AI Ramblings Daily is the afternoon video + podcast — my ad hoc takes and perspective on the day’s AI issues & news flow, around 20 minutes, with short 1-2 minute clips for quick topic views. Today: episode #100.

Subscribe to either or both on michaelparekh.substack.com. They run as separate Sections you can opt into or out of.

Links used in today’s show (already embedded inline above; listed here for reference)

Take 1 — Apple’s Tim Cook Signals Higher Prices:

• WSJ — Apple to raise prices due to the memory-chip crunch, Tim Cook says

• AI-RTZ #1010 — Apple’s supply-chain moat on tech memory prices

• AI-RTZ #1030 — Global memory shortages of 20%+ through 2030+

• AI-RTZ #1017 — Apple’s MacBook Neo value-computing push

Take 2 — Microsoft Weighs China’s DeepSeek for Copilot / DeepSeek Funding:

• Axios — Microsoft weighs DeepSeek for Copilot / Cowork

• The Information — China’s DeepSeek raises $7.5B in a uniquely structured $50B+ round

• AI-RTZ #923 — US companies building on Chinese open-source LLMs

• AI-RTZ #1089 — Nvidia & Apple as potential US open-source champions

• AI-RTZ #1062 — DeepSeek not faded out in China

• AI-RTZ #1085 — Nvidia’s Jensen rides Air Force One to China after all

• AI-RTZ — ‘Threading the China needle’ (Aug 2023)

• AI-RTZ #1121 — China’s DeepSeek raises $7.4B (today’s companion)

• AI-RTZ #612 — China’s DeepSeek does more with less (Jan 26, 2025)

Take 3 — OpenAI Snags OG AI Researcher Noam Shazeer From Google:

• The Information — Star Google AI researcher Noam Shazeer joins OpenAI

• WSJ — Google paid $2.7 billion to bring back its AI genius (Sept 2024)

• AI-RTZ #924 — OpenAI’s ‘Code Red,’ catalyzed by Google Gemini (Dec 2025)

• AI-RTZ #548 — Google scaling AI

• AI-RTZ #436 — Another possible key AI-talent acquihire

Gadget AI — Apple’s 2nd-Generation, Thin iPhone Air in 2027:

• Bloomberg — Apple prepares the second-generation iPhone Air for Spring 2027

• AI-RTZ #840 — Apple’s AI strategy embedded in its Fall 2025 production launch

Q1 + Q2 — MP’s favorite iPhone Air feature + most-wished-for in the Air 2:

• (no external sources — MP’s own analyst view)

Companion text:

• AI-RTZ #1121 — China’s DeepSeek raises $7.4B (at a $50B+ valuation)

AI Ramblings Daily on AI-RTZ is here to think through AI and reset. Together.

Today’s AI-RTZ #1121 — China’s DeepSeek raises $7.4B — DeepSeek raised a $7.4 billion round at a $50B+ valuation, a little over a year after its appearance on the global AI stage. I’m a huge fan of founder/CEO Liang Wenfeng, the ex-hedge-fund manager who turned around the entire open-source AI industry in China — recommended as today’s reading post.

Tomorrow — ARD 101 on AI-RTZ 1122.

Thanks for joining us today, AI Curious Folk. Stay tuned.

(NOTE: The discussions here are for information purposes only, and not meant as investment advice at any time. Thanks for joining us here.)

Subscribe to AI: Reset to Zero for daily AI Ramblings + Sunday Bigger Picture posts.