AI: AI Home Robots in the distance. RTZ #467
A few days ago, in “AI Robots get closer”, I emphasized that humanoid robots, now revamped with LLM AI ‘Foundation Robotics’ technology, are in a new AI race between the US and China. This compares with robots both consumer and industrial, humanoid or not, powered for the past couple of decades with ‘deterministic’ software programming, vs the ‘probabilistic’ and LLM AI optimized Data of the Generative AI boom since 2022. In homes, the scifi version via cartoons over 60 years ago was Rosey the home robot from the Jetsons.
Today, I’d like to focus on the ‘Home’ part of this long-awaited Robotics revolution, again, humanoid or not.
Techcrunch sets the stage with a comprehensive piece “Why do so many home robots still suck?”:
“‘The Jetsons’ debuted September 23, 1962. The first episode, titled “Rosey the Robot,” was an origin story of sorts for the titular character, describing how an overworked Jane hired the housekeeper. Sixty-two years after her debut, Rosey remains an important pop cultural touchstone for the unfulfilled promise of home robots.”
“The home of 2024 isn’t necessarily wholly devoid of robots. According to its own figures, iRobot has sold more than 50 million Roombas. That, meanwhile, is a fraction of the overall number of robot vacuums that have been sold around the globe. Robot lawnmowers and pool cleaners have gained traction as well, though those figures pale in comparison to their vacuuming counterparts.”
Amazon even tried to acquire iRobot for $1.7 billion in 2022 but was thwarted for regulatory reasons. But the vacuum robot market isn’t lacking for interest:
“Home robots’ unfulfilled potential isn’t because of a lack of consumer demand or lack of effort from manufacturers. It’s more complicated and nuanced than that, though ultimately it’s a matter of pricing, functionality and efficacy. Outside of the aforementioned use cases, today’s home robots don’t do enough or do what they do well enough, and building a robot that can tick both of those boxes would prove prohibitively expensive for those of us who can’t afford our own islands.?”
“Vacuums make for good home robots.”
“During his long tenure as iRobot CEO, co-founder Colin Angle was fond of saying that he didn’t become a successful roboticist until he became a vacuum salesman. It’s a fun quip that gets to something much deeper about the industry. Before the Roomba came along, the company had experimented with everything from baby dolls to military equipment.”
“iRobot found success when it focused on a simple task: cleaning floors. The earliest models were primitive by today’s standards, but they got the job done well enough to justify their price point. In addition to marking 62 years since Rosey’s TV debut, next month is also the Roomba’s 22nd anniversary. The robot vacuum is old enough to legally buy a case of Sam Adams.”
“In the nearly quarter century since the Roomba launched, much of iRobot’s R&D has gone into making the system smarter, adding sensing, mapping, and AI and integrating with smart assistants. The company has invested into other robotics categories as well, including gutter clearing, pool cleaning and a lawnmower that may never see the light of day, but all have failed to recapture the Roomba’s magic.”
With Generative AI, robots of all types are being redone with LLM/Generative AI, at new and existing company. And of course Elon is in the mix with Tesla Optimus, which was announced a few years ago with a dancer in a spandex onesie.
But Generative AI is hard with ‘edge cases’, and the lack of in home data that can be used to train home robots. That alone is likely to take years to accomplish. Not to mention the challenges of getting the complex manufacturing done at Scale, and at price points affordable for home use. It’s one of the reasons I explained China has some advantages here.
Optimus is being targeted at an ambitious and mostly unaffordable $30,000, when high-end Roombas themselves are almost a thousand dollars.
All that hasn’t prevented Amazon, Apple and a range of other companies to try for the home robot price. Even at limited capabilities and price points in the thousands.
But it’s important to keep all the headwinds in mind for home robots, before getting too excited to see the Jetson robots helping around the house. It’s likely going to be another AI future we’ll need to wait for in this AI Tech Wave. Stay tuned.
(NOTE: The discussions here are for information purposes only, and not meant as investment advice at any time. Thanks for joining us here)
