Are We Trying Too Hard?

Happy Tuesday – 

We live in the most exciting time! 

The FAA expects US air travel to double in the next twenty years. One billion to two. 

Today’s system cannot support that. 

Not the towers. Not the runways. Not the airframes. 

The industry needs a top-to-bottom overhaul.

Advanced Air Mobility is supposed to be the answer. Drones and eVTOLs. But the evolution moves slower than a snail’s pace. 

Safety, certification, regulation. Complex problems with complex solutions. 

The slow pace makes sense. But it doesn’t change the deadline.

I like to watch the leading edge for signs of what breaks the logjam. 

Last weekend, something strange happened in Dayton. 

DARPA ran its Lift Challenge. More than 70 teams, one rule that mattered: carry 4x your weight over five nautical miles, in an airframe that weighs less than 55 lbs. 

Nobody hit 4:1. 

Avidrone came closest at 3.84:1. A 29lbs aircraft hauling 112lbs of cast iron. 

Its machine was a single main-rotor helicopter. The configuration we’ve been flying since the 1940s. 

Third place went to Xtreme Aerial Concepts at 3.45:1. Also a helicopter design. 

For reference, today’s best multirotors sit at 1:1 or less. A DJI Agras T50 weighs 115lbs and carries 85lbs – a 0.75:1 ratio.

The old shape beat the best production drone flying today by 5x. 

I’m not an engineer. But I know what a signal looks like. 

The obvious counter: a 29lbs helicopter hauling cast iron is not a six-seat air taxi. Rotor efficiency scales. Noise, redundancy, and passenger comfort don’t follow the same curve.

Fair. But the question still stands.

We’ve spent a decade adding rotors, tilt mechanisms, and distributed propulsion to solve lift. A team on a museum lawn in Ohio got closer with a design our grandparents would recognize.

Maybe today’s eVTOLs are over-engineered.

Maybe the path of least resistance for electric aircraft isn’t reinventing the wheel. It’s electrifying the one that already works.

The eVTOLs in the media are cool. They look slick. But cool, slick aircraft don’t move mass.

And if demand doubles while airframes stay this inefficient, we need more aircraft, more energy, and more ground to do the same work.

I’m curious to hear what you think. Message me.

Here are a few links that caught my fancy,

Skydrive Studies Regional EVTOL Applications In Asia

Olson Kundig Crowns Sky View House with Retractable Roof 

Designing the Future of Ground & Air Transportation Infrastructure

Boeing to Fold Its Flying-Taxi Venture Into Rival Archer Aviation

Joby Builds Defense Division with $500M Acquisition of Resonant Sciences