CLOSING BELL

Tuesday’s tape had a weird little personality disorder: every major index closed red, but Stocktwits sentiment stayed wildly bullish anyway. The only asset climbing higher was crude oil, up 7% this week with no news on a deal after the China meetup.

The bond market sent stocks into fear. A global bond selloff pushed the U.S. 30-year toward a nearly 20-year high, while German, U.K., and Japanese yields joined the tantrum as oil pressure kept the inflation scare alive. The war shut down 20% of crude flow and even more natural gas, and after three months, it’s starting to look like a grand reopening is far away. Inflated gas means inflated everything else, and the bond market is starting to freak out.

“With debt rising faster than growth, worsening inflation profiles, and no political will for fiscal reform, there is little reason to reach for the long end,” Ajay Rajadhyaksha, Barclays Plc’s global chairman of research, wrote in a note on Monday.

On Stocktwits, sentiment stayed weirdly bullish for a red day. $NVDA still owned the room before earnings, but $CAVA, $SLS, $BA, and $CLSK carried the live chatter.

Today’s Briefing:

• After the Bell: Cava’s Q1 beat and Nvidia’s earnings setup gave traders plenty to argue over

• Stocks: Retail earnings week, Target’s preview, Walmart’s Thursday test, and SpaceX IPO fever hit the tape

• Macro News: Sector rotation showed money hiding in defensives and oil before Nvidia reports

• Trending on Stocktwits: CleanSpark, SELLAS, Keysight, Trump Media, Corvus, Coterra, and Chewy led the live movers

AFTER THE BELL
Cava Keeps Serving Growth 🥙

Cava, the Mediterranean fast-casual chain, popped Tuesday after Q1 showed the restaurant growth story is still alive, even if the valuation debate remains spicy enough to come with a warning label. The $CAVA stream is bullish, message volume is high, and 13k watchers are focused on whether the Q1 beat and raised guide justify the premium valuation.

The RIP: $CAVA ( ▼ 2.22% ) rose +4% after Q1 revenue grew 32% year-over-year to $434.4M, while GAAP EPS fell 9% to $0.20. Same-restaurant sales rose 9.7%, driven by 6.8% guest traffic growth and 2.9% from price/mix. The company opened 20 net new restaurants, ending the quarter with 459 locations.

Top Posts

• @ReaLiLJ: “$CAVA CAVA FAMMMMMMM WE DID IT!!! Same Restaurant Sales Growth: Increased by 9.7% driven by 6.8% guest traffic growth.” Post

• @nopumpdump: “$CAVA P/E is 148 .. Industry average is 16 .. hmmmmmm how long until this hits $25” Post

The guide is the real reason bulls stayed loud: Cava raised fiscal 2026 net new restaurant openings to 75-77, same-restaurant sales to 4.5%-6.5%, adjusted EBITDA to $181M-$191M, and restaurant-level margin to 23.7%-24.3%. The bear case is still valuation and execution, because opening a lot of restaurants is easy to model and much harder to do without letting costs, culture, or cannibalization bite the thesis. 🥙

Jump into $CAVA: growth bowl or valuation bloat →

Nvidia Faces The Bar 🧠

Nvidia, the AI chip leader powering the data-center buildout, reports Wednesday night with the market already trained to expect another beat. After more than a dozen straight blowout quarters, the risk is not bad numbers, it’s boring numbers.

The RIP: $NVDA ( ▼ 0.77% ) traded at $223.07 Tuesday, up +18% YTD. Analysts expect Q1 revenue of ~ $79B vs. $44.06B last year, and EPS of $1.76 vs. $0.96. Nvidia has beaten revenue estimates for 14 straight quarters and EPS estimates for 13.

The watch list is simple: China commentary, data-center growth, and whether AI capex still looks endless. Investors keep getting news drops that ‘China is buying chips again!’ but the tune fades: retail needs real concrete plans to show up in the call. Investors watched as CEO Jensen Huang chowed through delicious looking food in Beijing this weekend, but there was little in terms of real news on China exports.

The market expects big things from its data center business, a whopping $72.85 billion compared to nearly half that in the same quarter last year.

Cantor raised its target to $350, while HSBC, DA Davidson, Morgan Stanley, Wedbush, and KeyBanc all stayed bullish into the print. The bear case is that expectations are now so high that even a beat needs clean guidance to matter. 🧠

Jump into $NVDA: beat or ceiling? Cast your price prediction now for the Thursday trading day after Nvidia reports →

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STOCKS
Retail Gets the Check 🛒

Home Depot, the home improvement giant, gave retail earnings week a sturdy but not exactly thrilling start Tuesday. The bigger consumer test comes next, with Target reporting Wednesday and Walmart stepping up Thursday.

The RIP: $HD ( ▲ 0.88% ) reported Q1 sales of $41.8B, up +4.8% year over year, with adjusted EPS of $3.43. Comparable sales rose +0.6%, and the company reaffirmed fiscal 2026 guidance. $TGT reports Wednesday. $WMT reports Thursday.

Aside from Nvidia’s report, this week might as well be retail week, with both Target and Walmart reports dropping in the days to come to give a live pulse on how a quarter that ended with a sudden war affected U.S. buyers. 🛒

Take it to $TGT: bargain or breakdown →

This Summer: SpaceX Sets Launch Date 🚀

SpaceX, Elon Musk’s rocket, Starlink, and AI mega-corp is moving from rumor to rocket launch. If the timeline holds, the company could make its public filing this week, giving retail insight into the financials behind the largest IPO ever. Whether exposed through a fund that claims private share ownership, or eyeing the first day of trade, the pace of IPO excitement is heating up. Investors are looking at an early June launch date.

The RIP: SpaceX is seeking up to $75B in its IPO at a valuation up to $1.75T. It reportedly filed confidentially on April 1, plans to list on Nasdaq under SPCX, approved a 5-for-1 split on May 15, and is targeting a June 12 debut.

What The Community Said: The $SPACEX ( 0.0% ) stream is extremely bullish, message volume is extremely high, and 3.2k watchers are focused on the upcoming IPO and whether retail will get access. Top Posts

• @Jason8844: “I love Starlink but they have a major issue with hardware delays. I ordered 5 systems on 4/2 and they still have not shipped.” Post

• @Dirt_Nasty_Trades: “Elon dumping bags on the public is reminiscent to dumping subprime rated AAA on the market.” Post

The trick is that this is not just a space IPO anymore. SpaceX now bundles rockets, Starlink, xAI, and X into one giant public-market story, with Nasdaq’s fast-entry rule potentially forcing index funds to buy after 15 trading sessions. The warning label is history: IPOs often stumble after the opening hype, and a 180-day lockup would put insider selling risk around Dec. 9. Butttt, it’s a Musk company, and that power of personality can send valuations out of this world. 🚀

Bring it to the $SPACEX ( 0.0% )  stream: launch or lurch →

TRENDING ON STOCKTWITS
Pops & Drops

• $CLSK ( ▲ 9.3% )  CleanSpark ⚡: ripped +10% after Bernstein backed miner AI optionality

• $SLS ( ▲ 4.12% )  SELLAS ⚡: jumped +6% after REGAL trial countdown heated up

• $KEYS ( ▲ 1.07% )  Keysight ⚡: climbed +4% ahead of Q2 earnings

• $DJT ( ▼ 3.27% )  Trump Media ⚡: dropped -3% as viability worries resurfaced

• $CRVS ( ▼ 5.82% )  Corvus ⚡: slid -4% after shelf-offering worries lingered

• $CTRA ( ▼ 8.62% )  Coterra: tanked -9% after Devon deal spread unwound

• $CHWY ( ▼ 9.11% )  Chewy ⚡: cratered -9% after CEO conference comments disappointed

ST EDITOR’S PICKS
Links That Don’t Suck 🌐

🤑  Mortgage rates surge to highest level since July

😨 Google debuts new AI models, personal AI agents in effort to keep pace with OpenAI and Anthropic

🏠️ Graduates are booing pep talks on AI at college commencements

💰️ OpenAI co-founder Andrej Karpathy joins Anthropic

📺️ NATO Is Starting to Consider Hormuz Mission to Protect Ships

👀 Elon Musk breaks silence on OpenAI trial decision

WHAT’S ON DECK
Tomorrow’s Top Things 📋

Macro: Fed Barr Speech (2:15 PM ET), EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (2:30 PM ET), FOMC Minutes (6:00 PM ET). 📊

Pre-Market Earnings: $TGT Target Corp, $LOW Lowes Companies Inc, $BZUN Baozun, $ZIM Zim Integrated Shipping Services Ltd, $TJX Tjx Inc, +9 more. ☀️

After-Market Earnings: $NVDA NVIDIA Corp, $POET POET Technologies Inc, $COSM Cosmos Health Inc., $ELF e.l.f. Beauty Inc, $BORR Borr Drilling Ltd, +17 more. 🌙

P.S. You can listen to all of these earnings calls on Stocktwits.

Get In Touch 📬

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