OVERVIEW

Both Leverage And Nerves Are Up 🔼

Here’s What’s Happening 👇️

Today’s top trending tickers: Osmosis, LCX, Tezos, Anyswap, and SingularityNET.

Biggest winners: $DOGE ( ▲ 2.88% ) , $BNB ( ▲ 1.07% ) , $CC ( ▲ 0.74% ) , $ASTER ( ▼ 0.34% ) , and $WLFI ( ▼ 0.19% )

Biggest losers: $TON ( ▼ 8.8% ) , $XMR ( ▼ 4.17% ) , $TAO ( ▼ 5.43% ) , $ZEC ( ▼ 6.05% ) , and $SOL ( ▼ 4.08% )

Before we dive in, here’s the total crypto market cap and altcoin market cap charts:

Source: TradingView

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ON-CHAIN ANALYSIS
Let’s Look At Leverage 👀

The Leverage Absorption Ratio (LAR) measures whether perpetual futures leverage is being added in a healthy way or a fragile way.

• A high reading means leverage got absorbed without realized volatility expanding. That’s Smooth Sailing.

• A low reading means new leverage is showing up exactly where it shouldn’t, paired with vol the market can’t keep contained. That’s the Danger Zone.

• The space between is Check Engine.

It is not a price-prediction tool. It is a structural read. It tells you whether the next move has a soft floor under it or a trapdoor with big nasty spikes.

ON-CHAIN ANALYSIS
Bitcoin’s Leverage Just Filed Its Notice 📂 

The Leverage Absorption Ratio for Bitcoin sits at 1.54, which is the kind of reading you get when the structural floor stops telling you it’s changed and they’ll never lie to you again.

Six days ago this thing printed 5.00. Now it’s in the Danger Zone. That’s the smoke detector going off about forty minutes after the kitchen actually caught fire.

Price is up 5.5% over the trailing 28 days. Open interest is up $3.3 billion nominally. On paper this looks fine. The funding adjustment is the part that ruins the dinner party. Funding has climbed from the 28th percentile to the 86th percentile of the window. =

Apply that haircut and funding-adjusted open interest is down $16.1 billion. Notional leverage went up. Structural leverage cratered. TL;DR – longs are still being added, just at prices only the desperate would pay.

Volatility has compressed to 2.78%. That’s the elevator quiet you hear right before the cable goes.

Near-term lean: cautious. Funding needs to cool or this exits leverage-first.

ON-CHAIN ANALYSIS
Ethereum’s LAR Is Smiling for the Camera 📷️ 

Ethereum’s LAR is at 4.02 – which is in the Smooth Sailing category. The trailing fourteen sessions: 4.95, then 1.14, then 4.97, then 3.53, now 4.02. Whipsaws everywhere.

Volatility has collapsed to 1.61% and that is what’s propping up the LAR. When the volatility denominator shrinks, the ratio inflates even if the leverage building underneath is the wrong kind.

Strip the optical illusion and look at funding-adjusted open interest: down $6.25 billion over 28 days, despite raw open interest holding flat at $12.4 billion. Nominally fine. Structurally hollow.

Longs are paying to stay long, which is the carry equivalent of paying rent on a house with no roof. Price over the trailing 28 days is down 4.8% and 33% off the January 14 peak. So the leverage building is happening on the way down, paid for at premium rates, in an environment where realized movement has flatlined. ebody decided it was good news.

Near-term lean: cautious. The 4.02 headline is not a green light, it’s a yellow light, but if it’s green it’s because you’re wearing beer goggles.

ON-CHAIN ANALYSIS
XRP’s LAR Reads Like a Hospital Room After Visiting Hours 😷

The LAR XRP is at 2.33, parked in the Danger Zone for five straight days after a two-session Smooth Sailing flash on May 6 and 7 reverted by May 9.

The funding picture is the curious part. Longs are not paying a premium to stay. By the usual mechanics, this should be a setup for the LAR to climb. It isn’t. The reading is in Danger anyway, which means the diagnosis is not a crowded-long problem.

The diagnosis is disinterest.

Volatility has collapsed to 2.01%, open interest is $0.89 billion (down 42% from the January peak) and roughly flat over the last month. Price is up 2% over 28 days. Realized movement, leverage, participation, all flatlining together. Nothing moves because nobody is making it move.

Range-bound assets eventually break range, and the side they break toward is usually the side carrying the most empty conviction.

Near-term lean: structurally neutral with bearish risk skew.

CRYPTOTWITS
Stream Signals 📢

A handful of Stocktwits posts worth pulling out of the scroll. 👇️

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$ETH.X $SMH

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$NEAR.X 🌈🕸️📐

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$BTC.X I was wrong in the move down to $60k, but I think the trend is now higher based on looking at movement of a forming blow off top in stocks (still a ways) and rising alt coins. There is stirring and amidst total depression in the crypto market. It’s not just depression it’s hopelessness, and often that when things get better.

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$XLM.X Bullish Bullish…   Schwab has about 12 trillion in assets … that lots of dollars allowed to flow into the crypto world… of course only a small percentage will be invested but…    i say thats good news….

NEWS IN THREE SENTENCES
AI, Stablecoins, & Privacy News 🕵️

SingularityNET Researcher Beats LLMs At Video Game By Having LLM Write A Different Video Game

SingularityNET CEO Dr. Ben Goertzel wrote that researcher Sergey Rodionov scored 33% on the ARC-AGI-3 benchmark, where frontier LLMs unaided score “essentially zero.” The method: have an LLM write and continuously rewrite a Python codebase modeling the game environment, then verify the model before committing actions to the live game. It sounds cool even though I only understand 12% of what he wrote about. SingularityNET.

Robotics DAO Launches Token To Buy Equity In Robotics Companies Which It Already Owns

XMAQUINA says that DEUS, the governance token of its robotics-focused DAO, will launch on Base via a Virtuals Protocol mechanism anchored on an Aerodrome liquidity pool, with $1 million in liquidity locked for 10 years. The DAO already holds equity in Apptronik, Figure AI, 1X Technologies, Agility Robotics, and NEURA Robotics. Investors hoping to buy actual humanoid robots can instead buy a token representing fractional governance over the DAO that owns equity in companies that build them. Virtuals Protocol.

NEWS IN THREE SENTENCES
Real World Asset Tokenization (RWA) News 🪙

Broadridge Reminds Wall Street It Already Does Tokenization, Has For Years, Why Is Everyone Acting Surprised

Broadridge Financial Solutions wants you to know they have a comprehensive expansion of its tokenization platform, extending the engine behind its $365 billion-per-day Distributed Ledger Repo solution to equities, funds, alts, and money market instruments. The 15,000-employee S&P 500 firm noted it processes $15 trillion in trades per day across “tokenized and traditional securities.” Broadridge.

NEWS IN THREE SENTENCES
DeFi, DEX, & Lending News 🏦

Synthetix Releases Feature Every Other Exchange Has Had Since 2019

Synthetix’s Scaled Orders are now live on Synthetix Perps, allowing traders to automatically split one large limit order into multiple smaller suborders distributed across a price range. Synthetix described the rollout as a step toward making “Ethereum Mainnet the place for perps.” Synthetix.

Jupiter Pivots From DEX Aggregation To Letting Strangers Bet On Poker Players

Solana DEX aggregator Jupiter is launching Jupiter Poker, a staking platform where two of the world’s top poker players, Xuan Liu and Danny Tang, will sell action on their Triton Super High Roller runs to retail. Tang has $34 million in lifetime earnings, a WSOP bracelet, and five Triton titles. Liu is the first woman to win a Triton Super High Roller Series. Jupiter.

NEWS IN THREE SENTENCES
Protocol News 🏦

Cardano Adds Formal Verification Tool

Input Output announced PlutusCoreBlaster and CardanoLedgerAPIBlaster, two open-source Lean 4 libraries that let Plinth, Aiken, and Plutarch developers mathematically verify their smart contracts end-to-end via the Blaster theorem prover. The team demonstrated the pipeline on a Capture-the-Flag practice contract, where Blaster automatically produced a ledger-valid counterexample showing a double-satisfaction exploit. Cardano.

OLD NEWS
Crypto Stuff That Happened Today, But A Long Time Ago 📜

Here’s what was happening in the newsletter a year ago today:

• Crypto kidnappings became the story nobody wanted – France, the U.S., Belgium, Spain, and elsewhere all showed that publicly having crypto can attract the absolute worst kind of attention.

• Coinbase joined the S&P 500 – one of those “crypto is mainstream now, apparently” moments.

• CryptoPunks got a new steward – NODE took over the collection as a nonprofit preservation play, which is a very fancy way of saying the billion-dollar pixel heads got official babysitters.

Here’s what was happening in the newsletter two years ago today:

• Roaring Kitty woke up and memecoin mania followed – GME/AMC madness spilled over into crypto and lit up PEPE, DOGE, FLOKI, and BONK.

• PEPE was the star of the day – it was pushing new all-time highs and fighting for the top trending slot on Stocktwits.

• Pudgy Penguins expanded into Target – turning NFT penguins into real-world retail toys with QR-linked Web3 hooks.

OLD NEWS
Other Stuff That Happened Today, But A Long Ass Time Ago ⌛️

May 13

• 1612 – An epic sword fight between Sasaki Kojiro and Miyamoto Musashi on Ganryu Island. Spoiler: Musashi wins.

• 1637 – Took long enough: the table knife is introduced.

• 1846 – The US Congress declares war on Mexico after Mexican forces cross the Rio Grande to attack General (later President) Zachary Taylor’s army.

• 1654 – Venice Admiral Cort Adeler defeats a Turkish Navy.

• 1861 – Queen Victoria issues a proclamation of neutrality between the United States and the Confederates.

• 1862 – A slave, Robert Smalls, commandeers a Confederate transport ship, gathers his family and those of his crew, and escapes to a Union blockade. The ship becomes the USS Planter and Smalls is appointed as captain, the first black man to command a United States naval ship. He later becomes a founder of the Republican Party of South Carolina.

• 1912 – The Royal Flying Corps, later known as the Royal Air Force, is founded in the UK.

• 1940 – Winston Churchill becomes Prime Minister, makes his ‘blood, toil, tears, and sweat’ speech to the House of Commons.

• 1958 – French military officers lead a coup in Algiers.

• 1998 – The US and Japan impose economic sanctions on India after two nuclear weapon tests are conducted in Pokhran.

• 2025 – Pete Rose and Shoeless Joe Jackson are posthumously reinstated by MLB Commisioner Rob Manfred.

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Author Disclosure: The author of this newsletter holds positions in AVAX, ADA, PUDGY, WLD, NEAR, INJ, LTC, LINK, ZEC, XLM, and FET. 📋