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OVERVIEW

BTC Got Within Slapping Distance Of $80K. Then Got Slapped. 👋

Here’s What’s Happening 👇️

Top trending tickers today on Cryptotwits: PolySwarm, Onyxcoin, Dumb SEND It, Orca, and Quant.

Biggest movers: $PENGU ( ▼ 2.88% ) , $ZBCN ( ▼ 1.29% ) , $JUP ( ▲ 1.62% ) , $EDGE ( ▼ 5.32% ) , and $DEXE ( ▲ 2.69% ) .

Before we dive in, here’s today’s crypto crypto’s total market and altcoin market cap charts:

Source: TradingView

NEWS
How Alive Or Dead Are They? 🤔

By request: another look at the On-Chain Bottoms Conditions Scorecard. 

The On-Chain Bottom Conditions Scorecard grades an asset across six conditions – cost-basis discount, drawdown depth, whale accumulation, retail participation, network volume dynamics, and long-term holder dormancy – and produces a 0-to-6 composite score.

• Near 0: none of the cycle-low conditions are present – bull-market or early-correction territory.

• Near 6: every condition is present in the pattern that has historically accompanied cycle lows.

Use it the same way you’d use a set of vital signs on a patient chart – the reading tells you what’s in place and what isn’t, not whether someone is going to live or die. 🏥

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ON-CHAIN ANALYSIS
Internet Computer – On-Chain Bottom Conditions 🌡️ 

Click to enlarge.

🔴 Holder Resolve – 0.02 – 1-year active supply at 41.0% sits at the very top of the 26–41% range observed this cycle. Long-term $ICP ( ▼ 2.25% ) holders are at peak activity.

🟡 Whale Bid – 0.61 – Modest positive trends over both 30 and 90 days.

🟡 Mid-Tier Accumulation – 0.43 – New funded addresses running 19% below the 90-day average.

🟡 Transactional Cheapness – 0.56 – Direction is wrong even though the absolute level is reasonable.

🟢 Valuation Reset – 1.00 – Aggregate holders are 69% underwater on cost basis. Market cap $1.3B against realized cap $4.3B. Deep-value territory historically associated with cycle lows.

🟢 Drawdown Depth – 1.00 – Drawdown well past the 70% threshold associated with prior cycle lows.

The Read: The whale cohort has been a steady, modest accumulator since the dataset (March 27, 2024) began. What’s missing is holder dormancy: 1Y active supply is at peak activity, meaning long-term holders are still actively moving coins rather than locking up.

ON-CHAIN ANALYSIS
Balancer – On-Chain Bottom Conditions ⛅️

Click to enlarge.

🔴 Holder Resolve – 0.31 – Long-term $BAL ( ▼ 4.89% ) holders have not gone dormant despite a 98% drawdown.

🟡 Whale Bid – 0.43 – Modest 30-day softening but the multi-year trend is accumulation.

🟡 Mid-Tier Accumulation – 0.53 – Tiny wallet base – only 107 addresses hold ≥$10K – up 7% over 30 days. New funded addresses 32% below the 90-day average. Counts are very low in absolute terms.

🔴 Transactional Cheapness – 0.27 – Network activity has not recovered relative to realized valuations.

🟢 Valuation Reset – 1.00 – Aggregate holders are 89% underwater on cost basis. Market cap $10M against realized cap $95M.

🟢 Drawdown Depth – 1.00 – Ya it’s never been this ugly before.

The Read: Participation base is genuinely tiny: 107 wallets hold ≥$10K USD worth of BAL globally. Volume hasn’t recovered, holders haven’t gone dormant, and the addressable on-chain audience is small enough that any signal here should be read with that context in mind.

ON-CHAIN ANALYSIS
AAVE – On-Chain Bottom Conditions 🤷

Click to enlarge.

🟡 Holder Resolve – 0.34 – Holder dormancy has not compressed meaningfully.

🔴 Whale Bid – 0.07 – Wallets holding ≥100K $AAVE ( ▼ 2.12% ) have distributed 1.3 million tokens since March 2024, a 12% reduction on starting holdings. Down 5.5% over 30 days. Active distribution at these prices.

🟡 Mid-Tier Accumulation – 0.44 – New funded addresses are 13% below the 90-day average.

🟡 Transactional Cheapness – 0.52 – Meh.

🟢 Valuation Reset – 0.93 – Aggregate holders are 34% underwater on cost basis. Market cap $1.5B against realized cap $2.3B.

🟢 Drawdown Depth – 1.00 – Price is 75% below the December 16, 2024 high of $399.75. Drawdown depth past the 70% threshold associated with prior cycle lows.

The Read: AAVE is showing whales selling into the drawdown, which makes the deep-value reading less reliable as a bottom signal.

ON-CHAIN ANALYSIS
Chainlink – On-Chain Bottom Conditions ⛓️

Click to enalrge.

🔴 Holder Resolve – 0.01 – $LINK ( ▼ 3.12% ) ’s 1-year active supply at 60.7% sits at the very top of the 45–61% range. Long-term holders are more active than at any other point in the dataset – the opposite of dormancy.

🔴 Whale Bid – 0.19 – Modest accumulation that has stalled.

🟡 Mid-Tier Accumulation – 0.46 – $10K+ wallet count up 8.2% over 30 days off a beaten-down base; new funded addresses running 31% below the 90-day average.

🔴 Transactional Cheapness – 0.01 – RVT at a fresh 52-week high of 149.4. Network volume has collapsed faster than realized valuations.

🟢 Valuation Reset – 1.00 – Aggregate holders are 43% underwater on cost basis. Market cap $6.4B against realized cap $11.3B. Deep-value territory historically associated with cycle lows.

🟢 Drawdown Depth – 0.97 – Price is 68% below the December 13, 2024 high of $30.95. Approaching the 70%+ depths that have marked prior cycle lows.

The Read: The valuation reset and drawdown depth are firmly in cycle-low territory but everything else reads as a market still in mid-decline rather than mid-base.

LITECOIN
Litecoin’s Privacy Layer Took One on the Chin 👊

$LTC ( ▼ 2.37% ) had some drama over the weekend. 🎭️

Twitter tweet

Here’s the plain-English version.

• MWEB is a privacy room coins go to. To pull them back out, miners have to verify the withdrawal is real.

• A zero-day bug let attackers push invalid transactions through unpatched nodes, so the attackers ran a denial-of-service flood at the updated miners to knock them offline, leaving only the outdated ones on watch.

• Then they walked in with fake withdrawal, pulled out coins that didn’t really exist, and swapped them on cross-chain exchanges before anyone checked the math.

• Three hours later, the updated miners came back, looked at the books, and rewound history like it never happened.

• Catch: the exchanges had already paid out. Those losses are real.

Aurora Labs CEO Alex Shevchenko called it a “coordinated attack” in a post on X, pegged $NEAR ( ▼ 3.69% ) Intents exposure around $600k, and told venues to audit their LTC books.

The Litecoin Foundation pushed Litecoin Core v0.21.5.4 the same afternoon and said the bug was fully patched.

Then the wrinkle. SEAL911 security researcher bbsz pulled the public commit log and showed the consensus vulnerability was privately patched between March 19 and March 26, roughly four weeks before the attack. 

So much for “zero-day.” Looks more like a deployment gap attackers found before all the pools upgraded. LTC barely flinched, hanging around $56. 👍️

OLD NEWS
Crypto Stuff That Happened Today, But A Long Time Ago 📜

Here’s what was happening in the newsletter a year ago today:

• Weekend data-dive issue – more market dashboard than actual headline day.

• Everything was green – the whole weekly index board was positive.

• NFTs and Metaverse led the rebound – NFTs were up 24.4% and Metaverse was up 23.9% on the week.

• AI, Smart Contracts, and DeFi also ripped – AI +19.7%, Smart Contracts +19.0%, DeFi +19.1%.

Here’s what was happening in the newsletter two years ago today:

• Spot Bitcoin ETFs were bleeding – there was a $217M outflow day, with GBTC doing most of the damage.

• Stripe came back to crypto payments – this time leaning into USDC across Solana, Ethereum, and Polygon.

• Eminem teamed up with Crypto.com.

• The yen was still the scary macro chart – extreme weakness, with professional speculators about 84% short.

OLD NEWS
Other Stuff That Happened Today, But A Long Ass Time Ago ⌛️

April 27

• 711 – Tariq ibn Ziyad lands at Gibraltar, invasion of the Iberian Peninsula begins.

• 1296 – First War of Scottish Independence

• 1522 – Magellan is killed in the Philippines.

• 1667 – John Milton sold the publishing rights to Paradise Lost for £10. Possibly the worst literary monetization strategy before Substack discourse existed.

• 1848 – France abolished slavery across its colonial empire by decree under the Second Republic, freeing roughly 250,000 enslaved people.

• 1896 – Sir Henry Parkes died in Sydney, the “Father of Federation” and one of the biggest pre-Federation political figures in Australia.

• 1966 – Yoshihiro Togashi was born, the manga artist behind Yu Yu Hakusho and Hunter x Hunter.

• 1986 – Pripyat began evacuating after the Chernobyl disaster, roughly 36 hours after Reactor 4 exploded.

• 1992 – After 700 years, the British House of Commons elects a woman as Speaker, Batty Boothroyd.

• 1994 – First democratic general election in South Africa.

• 2007 – Israeli archaeologists discover the tomb of Herod the Great.

• 2018 – North Korea and South Korea sign the Panmunjom Declaration, official declaration of the intention to end the Korean War.

LINKS
Links That Don’t Suck 🔗

📜 CLARITY Act Markup Set For May, Says Senator Cynthia Lummis Eyeing ‘Finish Line’ After 3-Month Delay

🤖 Pentagon Adds Google’s Gemini 3.1 Models To GenAI.Mil Platform – Warfighters To Have More Time To Focus On Mission‑Critical Tasks

⚔️ Peter Schiff Challenges Michael Saylor’s $1 Million Bitcoin Call As MSTR Nears 4% Of BTC Supply

🪙 XCN, PRL Crypto Tokens Outperform Bitcoin After Upbit Debut Amid Market Weakness

⛏️ Tom Lee-Backed Bitmine’s Ethereum Holdings Cross 5 Million Tokens

😲 Vivek Ramaswamy-Backed Strive’s Bitcoin Holdings Cross $1 Billion After Latest Buying Spree

Get In Touch 📬

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Author Disclosure: The author of this newsletter holds positions in AVAX, ADA, PUDGY, WLD, NEAR, INJ, LTC, LINK, ZEC, XLM, and FET. 📋