Chart of the Day – Thursday, April 18, 2024

Big Election Year Q1s Dip April-May Before Gains Last 7 Months.
2024 3rd best Election Q1 since 1950 tracking. Chop continues up ~2.5% April-Oct. Only 2 losses in the last 7 months of election years since 1950, 2000 & 2008 (2024 Almanac page 80). pic.twitter.com/thKL7tbYsu

— Jeffrey A. Hirsch (@AlmanacTrader) April 18, 2024

Today’s Chart of the Day was shared by Jeff Hirsch (@AlmanacTrader).

• The S&P 500 rose +10.2% in Q1 (red), marking the third-best Q1 in an election year. However, the index peaked on the final day of the quarter.

• Jeff points out that Q2 has historically gotten off to a rough start after a strong Q1 in election years. There have been 18 election years since 1950 (black). Seven of them have been above average (green).

• Despite this two-month speed bump, the final seven months of the year have been stronger than usual when $SPX is up big in Q1.

The takeaway: The S&P 500 got slightly ahead of itself in Q1. While this has historically been followed by weakness in April-May, the final seven months of the year have been stronger than usual.