Defense on the Defense
CLOSING BELL
Defense on the Defense
$SPY ( ▼ 0.32% ) $QQQ ( ▲ 0.1% ) $IWM ( ▼ 0.23% ) $DIA ( ▼ 0.94% )
The market fell Wednesday, the S&P 500 turning away from 7,000, but only slightly. Many of the happy-go-lucky Tuesday tech names were on the decline, while defense and housing names mentioned in a recent tweet barrage joined the red.
Labor data from the ADP and JOLTS showed a miss in expectations, with fewer private employment additions in December and a decline in job openings, while hiring slowed in November. It makes sense, the unemployment rate in Nov. hit a four-year high, and you can’t have high unemployment while also enjoying a hiring spree.
The only sector to remain in the green was healthcare, hitting all-time highs following a rash of small-cap bio tech wins, and volatility from incoming insurance changes. Intel was one of the only large-cap tech names winning big time after its new AI PC processors made waves at CES.
AFTER THE CLOSE
Earnings Are Still Somehow Making Waves
Applied Digital $APLD ( ▼ 2.31% ) delivered a massive Q2 beat today, with revenue skyrocketing 250% year-over-year to $126.6 million. The company reported break-even adjusted earnings per share, crushing analyst estimates of a $0.10 loss.
The stock rallied in the post market period, for a bit, before falling back, despite news of a 15-year, $5 billion lease with a U.S. hyperscaler for its Polaris Forge 2 campus. With 100 MW of its “AI Factory” now online and another 300 MW under construction, $APLD is trying to make a name for itself as a dominant force in the high-performance computing infrastructure race.
Constellation Brands $STZ ( ▼ 2.2% ) reported a strong Q3, posting adjusted earnings of $3.06 per share. Despite a slight 10% dip in net sales to $2.22 billion, the beer giant’s operating profit jumped 10%, driven by the continued dominance of the Modelo and Corona brands. While the wine and spirits division remains a drag on growth, the company’s ability to expand margins in its core beer business gave investors enough confidence to maintain a positive outlook for the full fiscal year.
Before the opening bell:
Albertsons $ACI ( ▼ 5.96% ) saw its stock hit a new 52-week low despite an earnings beat, reporting before the market opened Wednesday. Investors focused on a slight revenue miss and cautious forward guidance.
The grocer reported adjusted EPS of $0.72 on $19.1 billion in revenue, supported by a 21% surge in digital sales and an 18% jump in pharmacy and health revenue. However, management warned that new Medicare drug-pricing regulations would create a headwind for pharmacy sales in 2026. The modest 2.4% identical sales growth was not enough to offset concerns over a softening consumer environment, leading to a 6% slide in share price.
SPONSORED
What investment is rudimentary for billionaires but ‘revolutionary’ for 70,571+ investors entering 2026?
Imagine this. You open your phone to an alert. It says, “you spent $236,000,000 more this month than you did last month.”
If you were the top bidder at Sotheby’s fall auctions, it could be reality.
Sounds crazy, right? But when the ultra-wealthy spend staggering amounts on blue-chip art, it’s not just for decoration.
The scarcity of these treasured artworks has helped drive their prices, in exceptional cases, to thin-air heights, without moving in lockstep with other asset classes.
The contemporary and post war segments have even outpaced the S&P 500 overall since 1995.*
Now, over 70,000 people have invested $1.2 billion+ across 500 iconic artworks featuring Banksy, Basquiat, Picasso, and more.
How? You don’t need Medici money to invest in multimillion dollar artworks with Masterworks.
Thousands of members have gotten annualized net returns like 14.6%, 17.6%, and 17.8% from 26 sales to date.
*Based on Masterworks data. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Important Reg A disclosures: masterworks.com/cd
*3rd Party Ad. Not an offer or recommendation by Stocktwits. See disclosure here.
MACRO NEWS
Trump Tweets and Stocks Move 📲 💵
Geopolitics are taking center stage as the White House’s weekend operations are still stoking momentum for big statements and loud Donroe Doctrine tweets. Chevron said after the bell it is working to expand its licenses with Venezuela to export more oil, as the White House said it was taking over all exports for the foreseeable future. Trump said interim authorities in Venezuela will hand over up to $50M barrels of high-quality oil to the U.S. The president tweeted that the proceeds of these sales, exports from Venezuela, would go toward “ONLY American Made Products…”
On the same line of expansionist thinking, $CRML ( ▲ 16.43% ) is still climbing on Greenland acquisition rumors.
Northrop $NOC ( ▼ 5.5% ) and Lockheed $LMT ( ▼ 4.82% ) were falling 4-5% after President Trump said he would put pressure on defense companies, specifically their executive pay structures until they build equipment for the Department of War.
He also later tweeted about RTX $RTX ( ▼ 2.45% ), saying he would stop stock buybacks and limit executive pay to just a paltry $5M until it fulfills its contracts faster. Though some Pentagon contracts take years or decades to fulfill, it’s unclear what brought on this most recent outburst. Trump also said the defense budget should rise to $1.5T next year, from around $1T, leading to a defense stock reversal in the after-hours. LMT is up 7% post-market.
In other Trump news, the president said he would ban private or public corporate buying of single-family homes, a move to combat the dire cost of living that has not changed all that much. It’s a good start, if true, but it’s complicated:
House buyers and housing investors were falling, Invitation Homes $INVH ( ▼ 6.01% ) American Homes $AMH ( ▼ 4.29% ) and Blackstone $BX ( ▼ 5.57% ) were down. Blackstone in particular has been the target of populist chants for housing changes, an asset manager who oversees $1T. The firm told CNBC over the summer it owns less than 1% of the housing availible in the housing markets it operates in, buying single family homes and turning them into rental properties.
CNBC found that the Blackstone Real Estate Income Trust owns interest in 274,859 rental units, about 15% of the value of their overall $315B real estate portfolio.
According to Realtor.com, there are more than 1-2M single family houses currently on the market in the U.S. Private and institutional investors hold nearly 1M of single-family rentals, but in some locations like Atlanta and Charlotte, that makes up 18-25% of options, according to the Government Accountability Office. Institutional investors tend to target cheaper homes, competing with first-time buyers according to Redfin, which is another reason it home ownership can feel stacked against new entrants.
Trump would have to go after the larger ‘enemy’ in the room to really change ownership: regular old mom-and-pop landlords. Landlords that own 1-9 units to rent make up the vast majority of home ownership in the U.S. outside of single owners, at 11M estimated units. The remaining ~80% of the housing supply is owner-occupied, according to the Urban Institute, Brookings Institution, and American Enterprise Institute. Most ‘investors’ in housing are regular home owners with a single property.
IPO NEWS
2026 Is Turning Into Yet Another Hot Year for Public Offerings 🤩
In the IPO world, Discord reportedly filed for its initial public offering this morning, signaling a major turning point for the “social town square” as it moves toward the public markets with a valuation expected to exceed $15 billion. This confidential filing with the SEC, led by Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan, officially kicks off a massive 2026 pipeline that could redefine the technology landscape for the next decade.
Industry watchers are calling this the “Year of the Mega-IPO,” as Discord’s move sets the stage for even larger debuts from SpaceX, OpenAI, and Databricks. SpaceX is widely anticipated to be the crown jewel of the cycle, with its Starlink-driven revenue potentially pushing its valuation toward a historic $1.5 trillion. Meanwhile, OpenAI is navigating its own path toward a public benefit corporation structure, targeting a valuation as high as $1 trillion to fund the astronomical compute costs of its next-gen models. Databricks, having achieved a $134 billion valuation in recent private rounds, remains a prime candidate to anchor the data infrastructure sector.
If these “Frontier Tech” giants successfully transition, 2026 will go down as the most consequential year for public offerings in market history, especially if the AI song keeps playing, of course.
STOCKTWITS VIDEO
LIVE From CES: Check Out These Michele Steele Interviews On the Conference Floor
WHAT’S ON DECK
Tomorrow’s Top Things 📋
Economic data: Continuing Jobless Claims (8:30 AM), Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM), Trade Balance (8:30 AM), Nonfarm Productivity (8:30 AM), Unit Labor Costs (8:30 AM), NY Fed 1-Year Consumer Inflation Expectations (11:00 AM), Atlanta Fed GDPNow (12:00 PM), Consumer Credit (3:00 PM). 📊
Pre-Market Earnings: TD Synnex ($SNX) and Helen of Troy ($HELE) 🛏️
After-Market Earnings: Tilray Brands ($TLRY), Aehr Test Systems ($AEHR), and Aritzia ($ATZ.TSX). 🌕️
P.S. You can listen to all of these earnings calls on Stocktwits.
Links That Don’t Suck 🌐
📈 Invest smarter in 2026 with our BEST deal—14 months of MarketSurge for $1,499 ($600 off)*
🤑 Why Sandisk, Memory Stocks Have Soared While the AI Trade Treads Water
🍖 RFK Jr.’s new food pyramid puts meat, cheese and vegetables at the top
🏠️ US Says It Will Control Venezuela Oil Exports Indefinitely
💰️ Eli Lilly to buy Ventyx Biosciences in $1.2 billion deal
📺️ Rubio to meet Danish counterpart next week on Greenland crisis
ICE agents fatally shoot woman in Minneapolis, DHS says
*3rd Party Ad. Not an offer or recommendation by Stocktwits. See disclosure here.
Terms & Conditions 📝
Securities Disclaimer: STOCKTWITS IS NOT A TAX ADVISOR, BROKER, FINANCIAL ADVISOR OR INVESTMENT ADVISOR. THE SERVICE IS NOT INTENDED TO PROVIDE TAX, LEGAL, FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVICE, AND NOTHING ON THE SERVICE SHOULD BE CONSTRUED AS AN OFFER TO SELL, A SOLICITATION OF AN OFFER TO BUY, OR A RECOMMENDATION FOR ANY SECURITY. Trading in such securities can result in immediate and substantial losses of the capital invested. You should only invest risk capital, and not capital required for other purposes. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether any investment, security or strategy, or any other product or service, is appropriate or suitable for you based on your investment objectives and personal and financial situation. You should also consult an attorney or tax professional regarding your specific legal or tax situation. The Content is to be used for informational and entertainment purposes only and the Service does not provide investment advice for any individual. Stocktwits, its affiliates and partners specifically disclaim any and all liability or loss arising out of any action taken in reliance on Content, including but not limited to market value or other loss on the sale or purchase of any company, property, product, service, security, instrument, or any other matter. You understand that an investment in any security is subject to a number of risks, and that discussions of any security published on the Service will not contain a list or description of relevant risk factors. In addition, please note that some of the stocks about which Content is published on the Service have a low market capitalization and/or insufficient public float. Such stocks are subject to more risk than stocks of larger companies, including greater volatility, lower liquidity and less publicly available information. Read the full terms & conditions here. 🔍
Author Disclosure: The author of this newsletter does not hold positions in any of the securities or assets mentioned. 📋
