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Get 'While the Getting Is Good'. ARD #119

Author
Michael Parekh AI: Reset to Zero
15 hours ago
14 MIN READ

Today’s theme: get while the getting is good. The money is rushing into this AI tech wave from every direction — and that’s no surprise, especially after the $1.7-trillion-plus SpaceX IPO. Three events make the point — around Wall Street, M&A, and chip equipment — each with my Take, then my Overall Take. Three events for the AI Tech Wave.

(1) Wall Street Is Getting Big-Dollar Flows from Every Direction

MP TAKE: The numbers are extraordinary relative to previous tech waves — even the internet/dot-com wave that’s always brandished as the epitome of Wall Street enthusiasm. BlackRock just crossed $15.3 trillion in assets, profits soaring on higher fees, adding nearly $200 billion of cash in a quarter. Morgan Stanley — co-manager alongside my alma mater Goldman Sachs on the SpaceX IPO, and likely on the coming Anthropic and OpenAI IPOs — hauled in ~$148 billion of wealth assets off the IPO frenzy. Each mega-AI-IPO mints thousands of new millionaires (and far more), and that wealth flows back into the markets and into local real estate in San Francisco, New York and beyond. And per the WSJ, the blockbuster stock sales are coming so fast they’re threatening to overwhelm the bull market — and it’s not just IPOs anymore; legacy tech is getting in on the action too.

Having lived through half a dozen tech waves over 40+ years, this is a movie seen before — the numbers are just bigger. The one cautionary note that runs through the coverage: this scale of money flowing into private and public markets typically happens at the latest stage of a tech cycle. Pin that thought. The discipline is to separate the financial cycle from the secular technology cycle — they are not the same thing. Crests are always tough to call, but you can be on the alert for them.

Sources, in narrative order: WSJ — Blockbuster Stock Sales Are Threatening to Overwhelm the Bull Market. Bloomberg — Morgan Stanley Hauled In Billions of Wealth Assets in IPO Frenzy · BlackRock Assets Cross $15 Trillion, Adding $192 Billion of Cash. For longtime readers: ‘Wall Street Leans In to AI-Compute Capex’ in AI-RTZ #544; and ‘Healthy Wall Street Debates Around AI’ in AI-RTZ #490.

(2) M&A Accelerates on AI-Driven Deals — Stripe Bids ~$53 Billion for PayPal

MP TAKE: The M&A wave is another thing we tend to see later in a tech wave, and the examples building in the AI Tech Wave are notable. Today’s headline: Stripe, together with Advent, has offered to buy PayPal for more than $53 billion — a private fintech giant moving to take a legacy public one off the board. PayPal, of course, was the original late-’90s internet payments company — one of whose co-founders, Elon Musk, took his first step toward becoming the world’s wealthiest man.

A lot of the motivations here are AI-driven: the combined assets could accelerate AI into payment systems and other innovations worldwide. These deals are global — the US, China, Europe and Asia. In most cases it’s financial arbitrage that eventually leads to strategic arbitrage, sometimes. But remember: most M&A transactions don’t hit their aspirational objectives — they’re worth trying, especially early in a tech wave when the opportunities are immense and unknown, but this time will likely be no different. For now, they’re building in force.

Sources, in narrative order: Reuters — Stripe, Advent Offer to Buy PayPal for More Than $53 Billion. For longtime readers: ‘Tech M&A Finds a Way’ in AI-RTZ #405; and ‘Making Hay While the Sun Shines — AI M&A and Funding in the Mega-AI-IPO Year’ in ARD #62.

(3) Chip-Equipment Companies Start to Raise Prices — ASML

MP TAKE: ASML is one of the logical next companies to join the price-raising wave — exemplified so far by the memory oligopoly (SK Hynix, Samsung and Micron) with their role in the global ‘RAMageddon.’ ASML makes the EUV and DUV lithography machines that let every chip get made — not just AI and memory chips. These are among the most impressive objects humans build: half-a-billion-dollars-plus at the top end, with 100-to-200-plus suppliers of carefully crafted components, most of which can’t scale supply. We’re talking units in the hundreds, not the millions — and demand is accelerating ahead of supply for the rest of the decade, especially with Elon’s SpaceX/xAI ‘Terafab’ plans now in the mix.

So it’s no surprise ASML is raising prices, even against TSMC’s resistance. TSMC has been playing its ‘Fed of the AI Tech Wave‘ role — absorbing and smoothing costs across the industry, holding the line on price increases — but it may not be enough this time. ASML reported a great quarter, with over 30% of system shipments still going into China — a political football that keeps China at least two-to-three years behind on the latest EUV-made chips.

Sources, in narrative order: The Information — ASML Plans Price Increases for Chipmaking Equipment, Despite TSMC Resistance. For longtime readers: ‘Key Role of ASML in the AI Tech Wave’ in AI-RTZ #588; ‘TSMC, Fed of the Global Chip Economy, Speaks’ in AI-RTZ #1108; ‘TSMC, The Fed of the Tech Economy’ in ARD #57; ‘Elon Musk Boosts SpaceX/xAI with Terafab’ in AI-RTZ #1034; and ‘RAMageddon Really Here to Stay’ in AI-RTZ.

MP OVERALL TAKE

All three of today’s events highlight the theme — get while the getting is good. From Wall Street, to the M&A transactions, to the chip vendors — all are rushing into the AI Tech Wave‘s opportunities at scale. Yes, these can be markers of the later stages of a tech wave. The problem is that the later stage can go on for years before cresting, and it’s very tough to time — which is exactly what everyone is laser-focused on.

Tech waves always see the financial waves decouple from the secular technology waves. The technology takes longer to be distributed and diffused across enterprise and consumer markets; the financial waves anticipate that far earlier, and compress as the markets get more heated. And we are in a more excitable state of the markets overall, private and public, with the signals visible around the world. That gap between the two is often the critical variable to watch when you’re trying to assess when the music pauses or stops. In the meantime, the getting will continue.

Gadget AI — OpenAI Readies an AI Home Speaker, Siri Gets More Useful on the Apple Watch, and Apple Sues OpenAI

MP Take: While the industry chases AI smart glasses, pins, necklaces and pendants, the next most practical AI device may be the watch already on your wrist — and the AirPods already in your ears — both powered by Siri AI. Bloomberg reports OpenAI’s first device will be a movable, screenless speaker built as an AI companion — designed by Johnny Ive, whose firm OpenAI acquired for $6.5 billion, and likely running ChatGPT’s full-duplex voice, out later this year. Home speakers, of course, are already out from Google, Apple and Amazon (the Alexa line), with and without displays.

Meanwhile, in the same window, Apple is doing its thing — and the core one is Siri AI on the Apple Watch. The Verge’s Victoria Song — a reviewer I respect, whose work is thoughtful, not gushy — says Siri AI in watchOS 27 finally makes the Apple Watch feel like a wrist computer, and it may end up one of the core Apple devices. This is exactly the advantage of the consumer-electronics companies with a portfolio of devices — smartphones, AirPods, watches — that leverage shared operating systems, hardware, software and applications across the whole family. Google and Samsung are the other two with similar ecosystems, but the unit numbers of each item in the chain are fewer than Apple. And of course OpenAI/Jony Ive have to build them all, which will take years and billions. The winners will be the ones who fold AI into what you already carry and already use, not those shipping one more standalone gadget for the sake of the device. (All this even as Apple sues OpenAI over AI-device trade-secret poaching — today’s companion thread from AI-RTZ #1146.)

Sources, in narrative order: The Verge — Siri AI Makes the Apple Watch Finally Feel Like a Wrist Computer. Bloomberg — OpenAI’s First Device Will Be a Movable, Screenless Speaker Built as an AI Companion. For longtime readers: ‘Apple’s AI-Accelerated Health and Fitness Strategy’ in AI-RTZ #478; ‘The Glass Half Empty on AI Devices’ in AI-RTZ #872; and ‘OpenAI Draws Apple First Blood’ in AI-RTZ #1146.

Questions

Q1 — What does Michael use these home speakers and watches mostly for?

Honestly, the home speakers are still just speakers, timers and weather machines for me. Even the AI features — the newest Google speakers will do Gemini Live, and you can talk to it — I find it easier to just go back to the smartphone: more processing, more memory, my apps and my data are all there. The watch is the same; I use it mostly for the time. (And I’m constantly irked that my Apple Watch Ultra keeps asking for my PIN every couple of hours even though its sensors know it hasn’t left my wrist all day — one of my standing rants on the show.) Still, having Siri AI, Gemini and the like available across speakers and watches will be useful, and I’m looking forward to it.

Q2 — What’s Michael’s most wished-for feature in each form factor?

A display on the home speakers always helps — I’d prefer displays to none. And on the watch, I’d actually prefer a bigger display on the wrist — even wider than the Ultra. Everyone’s working on foldable phones with stretchy foldable screens; nobody’s yet said, “let’s put one of those on a wrist.” That’s my wish-for.

Wrapping up

Today’s AI-RTZ #1148 — DeepSeek of China Comes Back for Seconds in a Bigger Raise — is on DeepSeek raising more funds just a month after closing a round at tens of billions in valuation. It’s a reminder that the same financial-market flows and explosion here in the US are running in China and Asia too — markets in China, South Korea and Japan at new highs, all led by technology.

Tomorrow — ARD 120 on AI-RTZ 1149.

Thanks for joining us today, AI Curious Folk. Stay tuned.

— MP

Full Source Reading —

For the broader context, see the canonical sources for ARD 119 — in today’s narrative order:

Event 1 — Wall Street’s Big-Dollar Flows

Event 2 — M&A / Stripe’s Bid for PayPal

Event 3 — Chip-Equipment Price Raises / ASML

Gadget AI — OpenAI’s Home Speaker + Siri on the Apple Watch

Clips from today

Clip 1 — Stripe’s $53B Bid for PayPal

Watch on YouTube Shorts

Stripe, together with Advent, has offered to buy PayPal for more than $53 billion — a private fintech giant moving to take a legacy public one off the board. PayPal was the original late-’90s internet payments company, one of whose co-founders was Elon Musk.

MP Take: This M&A wave is another thing we tend to see later in a tech wave, and these deals are global. In most cases it’s financial arbitrage eventually leading to strategic arbitrage — but most M&A transactions don’t hit their aspirational objectives, and this time will likely be no different. For now, they’re building in force.

Clip 2 — AI Tech Wave: Timing the Late Stage

Watch on YouTube Shorts

Wall Street’s big-dollar flows, the M&A wave, and rising chip-equipment prices are all markers of the later stages of a tech wave. The hard part is timing.

MP Take: The late stage can stretch for years before cresting — it’s very tough to time. The financial waves are almost always ahead of the secular technology trends, which take longer to distribute and diffuse. That gap between the two is often the critical variable to watch when you’re trying to assess when the music pauses or stops. In the meantime, the getting will continue.

Clip 3 — Home Speakers: AI vs Smartphone

Watch on YouTube Shorts

OpenAI is readying a screenless AI home speaker, and the latest Google speakers can run Gemini Live. But is the smart speaker really the AI device of the future?

MP Take: Honestly, home speakers are still just speakers, timers and weather machines for me. Even with the new AI features, it’s easier to go back to the smartphone — more processing, more memory, my apps and my data are all there. The smartphone ends up being the device of choice for power, convenience and versatility, every time.

Clip 4 — Apple Watch Siri AI: A Game Changer?

Watch on YouTube Shorts

The Verge says Siri AI in watchOS 27 finally makes the Apple Watch feel like a wrist computer — a review from someone who does thoughtful, not gushy, work.

MP Take: While the industry chases AI glasses, pins and pendants, the next most practical AI device may be the watch already on your wrist — and the AirPods already in your ears — both powered by Siri AI. That’s the advantage of the companies with a portfolio of devices sharing OS, hardware, software and apps across the family. The winners fold AI into what you already carry, not a device for the sake of the device.

About AI Ramblings Daily (ARD), and AI-RTZ

Both are daily. Both are free. Both are about AI. But they’re different mediums carrying different messages.

AI-RTZ is the morning text — a deeper written take on one idea, published by at least 5 AM EST. Today: post #1148.

AI Ramblings Daily is the afternoon video + podcast — my ad hoc takes and perspective on the day’s AI issues & news flow, around 20 minutes, with short 1-2 minute clips for quick topic views. Today: episode #119.

Subscribe to either or both on michaelparekh.substack.com. They run as separate Sections you can opt into or out of.

Links used in today’s show (already embedded inline above; listed here for reference)

Take 1 — Wall Street’s Big-Dollar Flows:

Take 2 — M&A / Stripe’s Bid for PayPal:

Take 3 — Chip-Equipment Price Raises / ASML:

Gadget AI — OpenAI’s Home Speaker + Siri on the Apple Watch:

Companion text:

(NOTE: The discussions here are for information purposes only, and not meant as investment advice at any time. Thanks for joining us here.)

Subscribe to AI: Reset to Zero for daily AI Ramblings + Sunday Bigger Picture posts.





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