OVERVIEW

Last Time Ethereum Was This Oversold, It Ripped 📈

Before we dive in, here’s today’s crypto market heatmap:

Source: Santiment

And here’s a look at crypto’s total market and altcoin market cap charts:

Source: TradingView

ON-CHAIN ANALYTICS
There’s Oversold, And Then There’s Whatever This Black Hole Of Bad Decisions Is 😨 

Ethereum’s 90-day MVRV ratio is flashing warning signs for bulls, as it continues its downward trajectory, currently sitting in negative territory. For a long-ass time. ⏲️ 

Source: Santiment

MVRV < 1 (Loss Zone) 👎️ 

• Ethereum’s MVRV ratio has been trending below 1, meaning the average holder is sitting on unrealized losses. Historically, this zone signals undervalued conditions and often precedes market reversals.

• The ratio has seen multiple failed recovery attempts, with each bounce getting weaker. This suggests either capitulation is nearing or that sentiment is still bearish.

• In past cycles, deep negative MVRV values have corresponded with market bottoms. If this follows the script, Ethereum may be in or near an accumulation phase.

Crazy fact? This is the lowest ETH.X ( ▲ 3.05% )’s 90-day MVRV has been since July 1, 2022. 😱 

But Here’s Something Even Crazier 🤪 

Source: glassnode

On glassnode’s Realized Price and MVRV chart, the last time Ethereum was below the realized price line (Blue) was exactly two years ago.

And.

The MVRV dipped into negative territory. The last time that happened was also, exactly two years ago. 🤯 

And this is what happened to Ethereum two years ago:

ETHUSD Daily Chart – Click to enlarge.

In a nutshell: This is the most overdone and oversold Ethereum has been in two years. For people who like risk, they’re frothing at the mouth to go long soon while those prefer a little more conservative strategy are probably going to wait and see if this is the real bottom. 👀 

NEWS IN THREE SENTENCES
Crypto News 📰

💰 Senator Lummis Reboots Her Bitcoin Act, Insists ‘This Time It’s For Real’

Cynthia Lummis dusted off her failed BITCOIN Act and is once again pushing for the US to stack a cool million BTC. The bill originally flopped due to politicians being allergic to innovation, but now she’s hoping Trump’s executive order establishing a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve will light a fire under Congress. CryptoBriefing.

🇪🇺 EU Freaks Out Over Trump’s Crypto Love Affair, Cites ‘Monetary Sovereignty’ Meltdown

European finance officials are clutching their pearls over Trump’s pro-crypto stance, claiming an influx of dollar-backed stablecoins might make the euro look even weaker than it already does. The European Stability Mechanism insists the only way to stop America’s stablecoin “invasion” is to rush out their beloved digital euro. coinpaper.

⚖️ Puerto Rico Man Ordered to Hand Over $12.6M in BTC or Get Fined $10K a Day

Juan Carlos Reynoso was given 24 hours to turn over 119.65 BTC, but instead, he pulled the classic “Oops, I moved it somewhere else” trick, which definitely won’t come back to haunt him. His lawyer tried the “he was busy with family” excuse, as if shifting millions in Bitcoin just slipped his mind. The judge wasn’t buying it, hit him with a contempt charge, and now he’s racking up $10K daily fines until he gives up the coins. TheStreet.

FUTURES
Open Interest Collapses as Traders Tap Out 🤕

BTC.X ( ▲ 4.5% )’s latest Commitments of Traders (COT) report from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) just showed a collective shrug from the futures crowd. Open interest tanked by 3,851 contracts, a clear sign traders decided they had better things to do than speculate on BTC’s next mood swing. 🌚

Source: Tradingster

Non-Commercial (hedge funds and large speculators), who typically thrive on volatility, apparently couldn’t handle the heat either. They slashed both long and short positions—down 1,268 and 1,678, respectively—revealing they’re just as confused as your average retail trader. 🤷‍♂️.

Bitcoin COT Report Trends: Is Anyone Even Trading Anymore? 🤔 

The last four weeks of Bitcoin’s COT data paint a clear picture—traders have been pulling back, and open interest is disappearing faster than people’s faith in SOL.X ( ▲ 7.08% )’s Pump.fun memecoin market.

Open Interest is Getting Wrecked 💔 

• Feb 11: 32,949

• Feb 18: 33,833 (+884)

• Feb 25: 32,060 (-1,773)

• Mar 4: 28,209 (-3,851)

We went from increasing open interest to a full-blown collapse. The market added a modest 884 contracts mid-February, then proceeded to nuke 5,624 contracts in the last two weeks.

That’s not just traders taking profits—that’s mass liquidation or apathy. Either way, not a bullish signal.

Non-Commercials (Speculators) Are Noping Out 🏃 

• Feb 11: 26,802 longs / 27,169 shorts

• Feb 18: 27,367 longs / 27,734 shorts (+565 / +565)

• Feb 25: 25,737 longs / 25,533 shorts (-1,630 / -2,201)

• Mar 4: 24,469 longs / 23,855 shorts (-1,268 / -1,678)

At first, hedge funds and large speculators were growing their bets in both directions. But in the last two reports, they’ve been slashing exposure aggressively. They dumped 2,898 long contracts and 3,314 short contracts in just two weeks.

This tells us they aren’t betting strongly in either direction—they’re just leaving.

TL;DR: Sentiment is Collapsing 😵 

• Open interest has dropped off a cliff in the last two weeks.

• Large speculators are exiting positions—no big bets in either direction.

• Institutions have been net short the whole time and still are.

• Retail traders just flipped mildly bearish—which might be the only bullish signal here.

So, is Bitcoin gearing up for a massive move, or is everyone just giving up? Either way, traders are exiting stage left. 😬

ON-CHAIN ANALYSIS
Burnt Bag Briefing 🔥 

Want to know whether the bulls or bears are feeling the most pain today? Well, this is the place to look. 👀

24-Hour Liquidation Heat Map – Source: coinglass – Click to enlarge.

In the past 24 hours, 296,203 traders were liquidated, with total liquidations reaching nearly $842.98 million.

The largest single liquidation occurred on Bybit, a BTCUSD pair valued at $5.26 million.

Longs lost $645.34 million, while shorts were hit for $197.64 million. 🤕

NEWS IN THREE SENTENCES
Metaverse, NFT, & Gaming News 🎮️

⚔️ Ronin’s Cerastes Upgrade Goes Live March 17—More Storage, Better Fees, and Ethereum Compatibility

RON.X ( 0.0% )’s Cerastes Upgrade is set to go live at block 43447600, bringing better efficiency, more storage for validators, and a new gas fee structure that feeds the Ronin Treasury. The upgrade integrates ETH.X ( ▲ 3.05% )’s Shanghai and Cancun hard forks, boosts contract size limits, and introduces path-based storage for faster node operations. Ronin.

🎨 Starknet’s Art/Peace Season 3 Shattered Records with 2.2M Transactions

Four days, thirteen canvases, and 11 million pixels later, STARK.X ( ▼ 2.87% )’s Art/Peace Season 3 cemented its status as the best use of blockchain for drawing stuff that may or may not be questionable. Over 2.2M transactions proved that signless, gasless dApps are the way forward, especially when participation cost users an average of $0.0018 in fees. Couldn’t make it? Don’t worry—another round is coming soon, so you’ll have a fresh chance to fight over digital real estate. Starknet.

NEWS IN THREE SENTENCES
DeFi, DEX, and Lending Protocol News 🏦

📊 Arbitrage as Infrastructure—Bancor’s Fast Lane Fixes DeFi Inefficiencies

Arbitrage keeps markets balanced, but most DeFi models are slow, inefficient, and full of computational nightmares. BNT.X ( ▲ 4.32% )’s Arb Fast Lane solves this with 200x faster execution speeds, ensuring liquidity moves seamlessly across blockchains. Misaligned prices? Fragmented liquidity? Consider them gone—unless, of course, you enjoy inefficient markets and terrible execution quality. Bancor.

🏡 India Puts Land Records on Blockchain—No More ‘Oops, We Lost Your Deed’ Excuses

Dantewada District in India has digitized 700,000 land records using AVAX.X ( ▲ 6.76% )’s blockchain, making property ownership transparent and tamper-proof. Government inefficiencies that once delayed land transactions by weeks have been slashed to mere minutes, proving that blockchain can fix more than just financial markets. Avalanche.

LINKS
Links That Don’t Suck 🔗

🤯 VanEck registers for an Avalanche ETF in the US

📕 Overdue book returned to New Jersey library after 99 years

🕹️ Limbo developer responds after co-founder feud goes public

🦑 Kraken strengthens UK crypto regulatory standing with FCA electronic money license

🏔️ Mt. Gox fires off second $900M+ Bitcoin transfer in a week as BTC tumbles to $76K

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