Longer Ceasefire or Blockade Gridlock
Presented by
CLOSING BELL
Ceasefire or Blockade Gridlock
The market was green after Trump said last night the ceasefire is here to stay. Energy prices did not seem to feel afraid, crude climbing nearly 4% above $100/barrel Wednesday as Iran stuck three ships in the Strait, and the U.S. Navy sent salvos into the engine room on another ship just miles away.
The Nasdaq and S&P 500 hit fresh highs, the Dow gained as well after all signs pointed to red war hell just one day ago. The war looks peaceful, but it’s more like gridlock: word out of Tehran is they do not want to come to the table. Today’s meeting in Pakistan between Iranian reps and JD Vance was canceled after the U.S. heard they would be stood up.
Either way, it looks like earnings reports from the past quarter would actually get their due in the ticker tape parade, free from macro war time calamity to distract from how the largest companies in the world fared. Of course, most reports mentioned the war, trade issues, and calamity: you can never get very far from it.
AFTER THE BELL
$TSLA The Beat That Barely Has a Pulse 🩺
Tesla cleared the bar on Wednesday evening, but only because Wall Street had dug a trench and called it expectations. The headline numbers look like a comeback, but everything underneath the hood suggests the story is a lot more complicated.
The RIP: $TSLA ( ▲ 0.28% ) posted $0.41 adjusted EPS vs. the $0.34 estimate on $22.39B in revenue against $22.19B consensus. Free cash flow flipped to $1.44B when the Street expected negative $1.86B. Gross margin hit 21.1% vs. 17.7% expected. GAAP operating income was $0.9B, but GAAP net income was just $0.5B against $1.5B non-GAAP, a 3x spread that shows how much stock-based comp is flattering the bottom line. Operating margin landed at 4.2%, and regulatory credits and net interest income are still doing heavy lifting.
FSD subscriptions inched to 1.28M from 1.1M, tepid for a metric tied to Musk’s pay package.
Management leaned hard into “regionalization and vertical integration of critical supply chains,” quietly positioning Tesla in the executive report summary as tariff-proof while trade policy gets messier. They’re already ramping up new AI compute, battery materials factories, and prepping lines for Megapack 3, Cybercab, and Semi, making use of that $20B+ capex guidance. In the after hours, Bloomberg Terminal cited the new capex guidance was more like $25B!
The company is spending now and betting the inventory pile clears itself before the bills come due. Karim Bousta DVX Ventures co-founder and partner, told Bloomberg that despite the claims of self-driving success, it looks like Tesla is 5-6 years behind Waymo in terms of actually getting FSD cars on the road across multiple cities.
I can attest to that, though I take many Tesla Ubers, I have never even seen a self-driven one. But last week, I pulled out of my garage in Jersey City, and a Waymo was keeping pace behind me. It even drove through a scary three-way intersection with ease. 🏭
SPONSORED BY iHERB
The Logistics of Longevity
In the world of investing, asset management is key. The same rules apply to your health.
While general marketplaces rely on unverified third-party sellers, iHerb – the specialty store for health and wellness – treats its inventory differently. We buy directly from manufacturers and store every product in temperature-controlled fulfillment centers to ensure potency and authenticity.
Now, that standard is scaling up: iHerb has officially acquired Vitacost, uniting two respected, industry titans to dominate the global wellness market.
-
Always Authentic: Direct sourcing, with no third-party sellers.
-
Preserved Freshness: Climate-controlled storage
-
Global Reach: Shipping to 180+ countries.
Don’t settle for mystery supplements. Invest in a source you can trust.
*3rd Party Ad. Not an offer or recommendation by Stocktwits. See disclosure here.
EARNINGS NEWS
The AI Cyber Security Giant Lost Signal 📡
ServiceNow beat on both lines on Wednesday evening and raised full-year guidance. The stock cratered -13% anyway, because a war got in the way.
The RIP: $NOW posted $0.97 adjusted EPS vs. $0.96 estimate on $3.77B revenue vs. $3.74B expected, up +22% year over year. Subscription revenue of $3.67B barely cleared the $3.65B consensus after the Middle East conflict created a 75 basis point headwind from delayed on-premise deals in the region. The stock is now down -30% year to date despite a business that keeps growing north of 20%. 📡
DEAL NEWS
Musk Buys a Coder Because His Can’t Code 💻
SpaceX dropped $60B in optionality on Cursor on Tuesday, which is a polite way of saying Elon Musk’s own AI needs some help, despite the high cost of its buildout.
The RIP: SpaceX secured the right to acquire Cursor for $60B later this year or pay $10B for the joint work. Cursor is separately raising $2B at a $50B+ valuation from Andreessen Horowitz, Nvidia, and Thrive Capital. SpaceX’s planned June IPO is targeting a $1.75T-$1.8T valuation.
The deal exists because Grok can’t do the one major thing every competing AI lab has figured out. Bloomberg reported that SpaceX engineers have been slow to adopt Grok for technical work because it’s not as effective as rival tools, and that xAI staffers themselves have been using Anthropic’s Claude for coding instead. Musk acknowledged in March that xAI is “behind” on coding and said the company “was not built right the first time around, so is being rebuilt from the foundations up.” The Cursor acquisition is the rebuild. 🧑💻
MORE DEAL NEWS
Uncle Sam Wants to Fly Spirit 🛩️
The Trump administration is closing in on a deal to rescue the airline that nobody else wants to buy, potentially handing the federal government up to 90% of a carrier that’s been in bankruptcy twice in under a year.
The RIP: Spirit Aviation Holdings $FLYYQ ( ▲ 150.0% ) surged +478% on Wednesday after Bloomberg reported the government would offer up to $500M in senior financing in exchange for warrants to purchase up to 90% of the new entity post-bankruptcy. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick is leading the effort. The deal hasn’t been finalized and there’s internal disagreement about whether to proceed.
Spirit’s problems are structural: two bankruptcies since 2025, a court-blocked JetBlue merger, jet fuel prices that have nearly doubled since U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran in February, and an ultra-low-cost model that bigger carriers have undercut with their own basic economy fares. United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby didn’t hold back on Wednesday’s earnings call: “The problems at Spirit predate the run-up in fuel. It was going to fail because the business model doesn’t work.” Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy was equally blunt: “What would someone buy? If no one else wants to buy them, why would we buy them?” 🛩️
Meanwhile, $LUV slid -4% after Southwest forecast Q2 EPS of $0.35-$0.65 versus the $0.55 estimate, blaming the same fuel headwinds and holding off on updating full-year guidance.
SECTOR NEWS
Washington Finally Plans To Get High 🌿
The cannabis trade that’s been dead money for two years came back to life on Wednesday after the Justice Department signaled it’s done slow-baking marijuana reclassification.
The RIP: $TLRY ripped +14%, triggering a volatility halt before resuming. The Advisor Shares Pure US Cannabis ETF soared +28%. The catalyst: the DOJ is expected to move marijuana from Schedule I to Schedule III as soon as Wednesday, according to Bloomberg.
The shift doesn’t legalize anything nationally, but the taxes will change overnight for companies already operating in legal states. Under current Schedule I rules, cannabis companies get taxed on gross revenue before operating expenses. Green Thumb Industries reported a 56% effective tax rate in 2025 versus the standard 21% corporate rate.
Reclassification to Schedule III eliminates that penalty and opens the door for clinical research funding that’s been blocked for decades. Until then, it’s treated like researching the effects of heroin or crack cocaine. The President initially signed an EO weeks ago directing this move, but has said progress is slow. The past three presidents have slow-walked their way toward what seems like a simple ‘just add two Roman numerals’ to laymans.
“Will you get the rescheduling done, please?” Trump said Saturday while signing an executive order on psychedelics research. “They’re slow walking me on rescheduling.”
Holders of $TLRY ( ▲ 14.22% ) a trending stock on the site today, and the broader cannabis space should watch whether the DOJ filing actually drops this week or gets delayed again. The DEA moved to reclassify nearly two years ago under the Biden Admin, and it’s still not done. 🌿
TRENDING ON STOCKTWITS
Pops & Drops
-
$COIN ( ▲ 5.25% ) Coinbase: climbed +5% before reversing after New York AG sued over prediction market products — trending on Stocktwits
-
$UAL ( ▼ 5.58% ) United Airlines: dropped -6% after slashing full-year EPS guidance to $7-$11 from $12-$14 on fuel costs
-
$CAR ( ▼ 37.82% ) Avis Budget: cratered -38% as the short squeeze unwound from a +23% spike the day before
-
$NVTS ( ▲ 20.48% ) Navitas Semi: surged +20% on AI power chip momentum after showcasing GaN platforms at GTC
-
$SOXS ( ▼ 7.69% ) Semiconductor Bear 3x: tanked -8% as chip bulls ran the table
ST MEDIA
Top Stocktwits Stories 🗞️
Don’t miss a story! Follow @StocktwitsNews for a live feed in real time. ✍️
SPONSORED
Stocktwits Boardroom Exclusives
Twitter tweet
*3rd Party Ad. Not an offer or recommendation by Stocktwits. See disclosure here.
WHAT’S ON DECK
Tomorrow’s Top Things 📋
Macro: Initial + Continuing Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (Apr) (9:45 AM ET), S&P Global Services PMI Flash (Apr) (9:45 AM ET), New Home Sales (Mar) (10:00 AM ET). 📊
Pre-Market Earnings: $AAL American Airlines Group Inc, $PENN PENN Entertainment Inc., $LMT Lockheed Martin, $AXP American Express, $PCG PG&E Corporation, +15 more. ☀️
After-Market Earnings: $INTC Intel, $NEM Newmont, $SES SES AI Corporation – Ordinary Shares – Class A, $MPT Medical Properties Trust Inc, $WINT Windtree Therapeutics Inc, +9 more. 🌙
Preview RIP: $INTC is expected to post $0.01 EPS on $12.36B in revenue, with Data Center and AI revenue seen at $4.41B, up +7% year over year, as CPU demand from AI agent workloads and a Google Cloud multiyear deal do the heavy lifting against a PC market forecast to shrink -11%.
The RIP: $AAL is seen at a $0.47 loss on $13.81B in revenue, up +10% year over year, after management raised Q1 revenue guidance on stronger demand, but jet fuel at $2.75/gallon is expected to eat the upside on the bottom line.
P.S. You can listen to all of these earnings calls on Stocktwits.
Links That Don’t Suck 🌐
📈 Not sure how to handle this market? See how Leaderboard’s experts do it for less than $1/day *
😨 IBM shares turn lower as company beats but opts to maintain guidance
📺️ Iran fires on 3 ships in the Strait of Hormuz as US maintains blockade and diplomacy stalls
*3rd Party Ad. Not an offer or recommendation by Stocktwits. See disclosure here.
Terms & Conditions 📝
Securities Disclaimer: STOCKTWITS IS NOT A TAX ADVISOR, BROKER, FINANCIAL ADVISOR OR INVESTMENT ADVISOR. THE SERVICE IS NOT INTENDED TO PROVIDE TAX, LEGAL, FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVICE, AND NOTHING ON THE SERVICE SHOULD BE CONSTRUED AS AN OFFER TO SELL, A SOLICITATION OF AN OFFER TO BUY, OR A RECOMMENDATION FOR ANY SECURITY. Trading in such securities can result in immediate and substantial losses of the capital invested. You should only invest risk capital and not capital required for other purposes. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether any investment, security or strategy, or any other product or service, is appropriate or suitable for you based on your investment objectives and personal and financial situation. You should also consult an attorney or tax professional regarding your specific legal or tax situation. The content is to be used for informational and entertainment purposes only and the service does not provide investment advice for any individual. Stocktwits, its affiliates and partners specifically disclaim any and all liability or loss arising out of any action taken in reliance on content, including but not limited to market value or other loss on the sale or purchase of any company, property, product, service, security, instrument, or any other matter. You understand that an investment in any security is subject to a number of risks and that discussions of any security published on the Service will not contain a list or description of relevant risk factors. In addition, please note that some of the stocks about which content is published on the service have a low market capitalization and/or insufficient public float. Such stocks are subject to more risk than stocks of larger companies, including greater volatility, lower liquidity and less publicly available information. Read the full terms & conditions here. 🔍
Author Disclosure: The author of this newsletter does not hold positions in any of the securities or assets mentioned. 📋
