March: Bitcoin’s Final Boss Of Q1 🎮

March: Bitcoin’s Final Boss Of Q1 🎮

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OVERVIEW

March: Bitcoin’s Final Boss Of Q1 🎮

Before we dive in, here’s today’s crypto market heatmap:

Source: Santiment

And here’s a look at crypto’s total market and altcoin market cap charts:

Source: TradingView

NEWS IN THREE SENTENCES
Crypto News 📰

🚀 CME’s Solana Futures & Possible ETF

CME Group wants to launch Solana futures in March, targeting both micro 25 SOL contracts and beefy 500 SOL ones. Analysts say it paves the way for a “SOL ETF,” following the usual route: big fancy futures first, spot ETF next. Solana’s got 240 days on the SEC clock, and JPMorgan sees a $3-6 billion flow if everything goes smoothly. CryptoSlate.

🤖 NEAR AI & Coinbase Throw an AI Party

They formed the Open Agent Alliance to basically give everyone an AI assistant—free, secure, and apparently spam-proof. Coinbase brings fiat-to-crypto rails, while NEAR AI handles the engine that does the heavy lifting. They’re roping in big names like Phala, Aethir, and more to ensure your new digital butler doesn’t leak your secrets. CryptoBriefing.

🏰 Trump Org’s Metaverse Plans

They just filed for a trademark that covers a whole “TRUMP” digital world plus an NFT marketplace, because why not. Expect virtual restaurants, digital merch, and “educational programs” (in real estate or maybe dinner with a side of politics). This could be live by late 2025, setting the stage for either hype or fireworks. The Shib Daily.

💰 DraftKings’ $10M NFT Settlement

DraftKings will cough up $10 million to settle a lawsuit claiming they sold NFTs that counted as unregistered securities. They had a fantasy sports-style NFT game called Reignmakers, which did massive volume before regulators crashed the party. Now, they’re paying a chunk of change instead of rolling the dice in court—call it the cost of playing in crypto’s legal gray area. Decrypt.

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TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
March Madness: How Bitcoin Has Historically Performed in March

March may be known for brackets, but how has Bitcoin historically performed during this month? Let’s dive into the numbers. 🏊️ 

📊 March’s Historical Performance

Here’s what the data tells us about Bitcoin’s performance in March:

  • Average % Change: +11.03% (Ranked #7 out of 12 months)

  • Times March has closed green: 6

  • Times March has closed red: 7

  • Average gain when green: +43.57% (Ranked #4 out of 12 months)

  • Average loss when red: -15.28% (Ranked #6 out of 12 months)

🏆 How March Ranks vs. Other Months

March is firmly middle-of-the-pack when it comes to Bitcoin’s monthly returns.

Rank

Month

Avg % Change

1

November

38.57%

2

April

35.14%

3

October

27.63%

4

May

19.90%

5

February

14.00%

6

December

11.06%

7

March

11.03%

8

January

10.42%

9

July

8.10%

10

June

7.81%

11

August

-0.65%

12

September

-3.92%

🔹 March ranks as the #7 best month for Bitcoin’s average returns—not great, but not terrible.
🔹 March has historically posted strong gains when positive (ranking #4 in average green months).
🔹 However, its losses when red can be severe (ranking #6 in worst losses when red).

📅 How March Fits Into Bitcoin’s Broader Seasonal Trends

March is part of Q1, a quarter that has historically performed ‘meh’ – but that wasn’t always the case, Q1 used to be just behind Q4:

Rank

Quarter

Avg % Change

1

Q4

25.76%

2

Q2

20.95%

3

Q1

11.84%

4

Q3

1.02%

🔹 March helps Q1 post solid gains, though it trails behind January and February in overall performance.
🔹 Historically, if Bitcoin is rallying into March, it tends to continue upward—but if it starts weak, losses can be steep.

📢 Key Takeaways for Traders

1️⃣ March is an “average” month in Bitcoin’s history—it ranks #7 out of 12 in terms of performance.
2️⃣ When March is green, it rallies hard (averaging +43.57% when positive).
3️⃣ When March is red, losses can be painful (-15.28% on average).
4️⃣ March contributes to a solid Q1, but historically isn’t the strongest month of the year.

Bitcoin in March doesn’t come with a clear “seasonal trend,” but its high volatility means it’s a month to watch closely. If it breaks out early, it could post massive gains—but if the market is shaky, it could signal Q1’s strength fading into Q2.

TL;DR: March is a wildcard month.

It can be explosive when bullish but brutal when bearish. Keep an eye on market momentum and don’t assume history will repeat exactly as it has before. 🧠 

NEWS IN THREE SENTENCES
Metaverse, NFT, & Gaming News 🎮️

🚀 WEMIX: “We Dare” and Wepublic Upgrades

After 25 years of gaming industry success, WEMADE is pivoting with a new philosophy—“We Dare”—to inject Challenge, Fairness, Transparency, and Community into everything. DRX hopped onto Wepublic, letting fans crowdsource events and build fandom DAOs on a blockchain-based social platform. They’re also making wallet recovery easier, so you can lose your keys without losing your mind. WeMix.

♣️ Pebble City Deals In Web3 Casino Fun

Built by NHN on the Sui blockchain, it’s a “no crypto knowledge needed” social casino with slick mobile gameplay. NFTs unlock extra perks, and you can swap your game-won Stars into STBL tokens if you’re feeling lucky. Thanks to Sui’s sub-second finality, you won’t be twiddling thumbs after hitting the digital slot jackpot. Sui.

Pirate Nation Drops Anchor on Arbitrum’s L3

Proof of Play spun up custom chains (Apex and Boss) so their on-chain strategy game doesn’t choke on traffic or fees. They’re basically hoarding blockspace for their high-seas RPG, letting them run 70 million gas/second like it’s no big deal. If you’re sick of “fun” Web3 games with hidden server logic, these devs say everything’s on-chain—doubloons, battles, and all. Arbitrum.

NEWS IN THREE SENTENCES
DeFi, DEX, and Lending Protocol News 🏦

🔗 $EIGEN Delegation For Smart Contracts

Mantle’s letting multisig and contract wallets hand off reward-claiming rights to a good old EOA on L1 Ethereum. You just pick who you trust to scoop your tokens before the March 11 cutoff and voilà, no more sad unclaimed loot. Regular wallets can skip the formalities, so no sweat if you’re not in the contract life. Mantle.

💰 Synthetix Extends Infinex sUSD Incentives

They’re dishing out OP tokens weekly for six more weeks, plus tossing in a weekly raffle of Patron NFT, 1 ETH, and 1,000 SNX. The more sUSD you park, the better your odds—and your APR can hit 28% if the total deposits stay modest. Come for the yields, stay for the bonus freebies that might just land in your lap. Synthetix.

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Author Disclosure: The author of this newsletter holds positions in ADA,IMX, COPI, MIN, AGIX, ALGO, ZEC, AVAX, XLM, and NEAR. 📋





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