Momentum Monday – They Sure Do Want You To Buy Tesla…What Happens Once We Bounce?
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Good morning…
As I pointed out last week with the Social $VIX on Stocktwits.com we have been due for a bounce, especially in the Nifty NINE ( $META ( ▲ 1.75% ) $AAPL ( ▲ 1.95% ) et al ) which are down on average 20 percent from their all-time highs ( $TSLA ( ▲ 5.27% ) being the biggest loser).
Ivanhoff and I tour the markets looking at some fresh ideas and discussing what might happen next…
Welcome back to Momentum Monday!
In today’s episode of Momentum Monday, Ivanhoff and I discuss the following:
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$HOOD ( ▲ 1.6% ) ‘s Market Strategy and Innovations
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$DKNG ( ▲ 2.73% ) and the Rise of Betting Economies
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Assessing Risk in International Stocks
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Analyzing Web 2.0 Leaders: $UBER ( ▲ 2.0% ) , $DASH ( ▼ 1.2% ) , and $ABNB ( ▲ 2.1% )
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Stock Market Outlook and Investment Strategies
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Analyzing Investment Opportunities: $TME ( ▼ 1.96% ) and $BROS ( ▼ 0.09% )
In This Episode, We Cover:
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$HOOD ( ▲ 1.6% ) ‘s Market Strategy and Innovations (0:00)
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$DKNG ( ▲ 2.73% ) and the Rise of Betting Economies (3:53)
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Assessing Risk in International Stocks (7:18)
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Analyzing Web 2.0 Leaders: $UBER ( ▲ 2.0% ) , $DASH ( ▼ 1.2% ) , and $ABNB ( ▲ 2.1% ) (10:55)
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Stock Market Outlook and Investment Strategies (14:30)
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Analyzing Investment Opportunities: $TME ( ▼ 1.96% ) and $BROS ( ▼ 0.09% ) (18:07)
Here are Ivanhoff’s thoughts:
The Nasdaq 100 has printed two back-to-back bullish reversal weekly candles. Seasonality is turning bullish. Higher-volatility momentum stocks like HOOD and PLTR are starting to outperform again. All of these factors might lead to a relief bounce. I can see QQQ testing 490. If it goes above 490, it could test 500.
What is the bearish scenario? Another failed bounce attempt near 485 and then a quick break below 473 that could lead to another leg lower to 450. There are enough arguments for the bearish scenario as well. MU, FDX, and NKE beat estimates and gave warnings about their future earnings potential due to global uncertainty and tariffs. I suspect many companies will use the same excuse when their time comes to report earnings. In the meantime, the Fed kept the rates the same last week. They continue to expect only 50bps buts for the entire 2025. This won’t change unless the economy slows down significantly which means that the Fed is not going to be proactive.
The tape has been choppy lately. Trending moves haven’t lasted for more than a day or two for many stocks. I’ve adjusted my approach by taking quicker profits. It would be a nice pace of change if we see longer trending moves, so we can capture multi-day swings.
And here are the charts discussed:
