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CLOSING BELL

Good evening, and happy Tuesday, a return to record setting markets, despite the scary after hours sell off for AMD and SpaceX. The Dow and S&P 500 hit record closes.

The U.S.-Iran conflict is the market’s main source of risk, aside from insane AI spending, but investors are still leaning risk-on, and crude fell nearly 10% on the week after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said a deal could come as early as tomorrow to reopen much of the Strait.

The market returned to record territory Tuesday as hopes for a Strait of Hormuz agreement pulled yields lower and eased the two risks traders feared most: oil pressure and another inflation shock.

The relief rally did not survive every earnings call. Stocktwits stayed bullish on AMD and CMG, while SpaceX traders argued over whether compute revenue can catch an $18.4B quarterly capex bill.

Today’s Briefing: Powered by Stocktwits Community API.

• After the Bell: SpaceX’s AI spending and AMD’s slowing momentum overshadowed stronger revenue.

• Stocks: Bitdeer’s AI deal faded, while a salmonella probe burned Chipotle.

• What’s Trending Now on Stocktwits

• Did Tuesday’s record close matter once AI spending sent SpaceX and AMD lower after hours?

AFTER THE BELL
SpaceX Finds The Spending Button 🔥

SpaceX, the aerospace and satellite-internet company, reported second-quarter results Tuesday after the close, with revenue beating expectations as AI compute agreements added sales. Shares fell after hours as investors focused on heavy spending.

The RIP: $SPCX ( ▲ 9.43% ) fell 8% after hours. Adjusted loss was $0.09 per share, revenue was $7.81B, up 92% year-over-year, versus $6.8B expected. CapEx climbed too: Second-quarter capex reached $18.4B, including $15.8B for AI.

SpaceX holders got the trade-off in one frame: compute agreements added $1.6B of second-quarter revenue, while total capex reached $18.4B. Musk said no worries, his firm will make $1T in revenue by 2030… somehow.

The earnings landed two days before SpaceX’s first lockup release, when employees and early investors can sell roughly 911.5M shares. The stock’s 14-session stretch below the $135 IPO price did not trigger the release; reporting Q2 did. market conditions ended up blocking additional sell options for 10% more, which required five of the final 10 closes above $175.50. Better luck next time, lunch lady’s. 🍎 

The stock was mostly lower than its IPO price near $135 in the past twenty days, though it climbed into the close before tonight’s report.

Next, SpaceX is expanding Starlink through localized market plans, even as management says broader access may pressure blended ARPU. Watch whether Starlink growth and compute revenue can outpace capex; another quarter where spending dwarfs sales keeps the launchpad crowded.

The Community Read: The $SPCX room is 66% bullish, find the AI spending fight ->

Yeehaw

AMD’s Beat Falls Flat 📉

AMD, the data-center chipmaker, reported record second-quarter revenue Tuesday after the close and forecast a stronger third quarter on AI demand. Shares still fell 7.4% after hours as investors focused on slowing growth momentum.

The RIP: $AMD ( ▲ 7.0% ) fell 7.4% after hours after gaining 7% in regular trading. Adjusted EPS was $1.66 vs. $1.62 expected, revenue was $11.54B vs. $11.28B, and Data Center revenue rose 107% year-over-year.

AMD holders and AI-chip rivals now have to reconcile 107% Data Center growth with a big after-hours drop. After a 14.1% five-session run, a clean beat was table stakes. Next comes Q3, where AMD expects roughly $13B in revenue and a 56% adjusted gross margin; watch whether Data Center growth accelerates in the second half.

The Community Read: The $AMD room is 76% bullish, find the post-earnings growth fight ->a

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* Certain statements herein are forward-looking statements within the meaning of applicable securities laws. Readers should refer to the forward-looking statements disclaimer included in the linked blog post for important information regarding these statements.

STOCKS
Bitdeer’s AI Deal Round-Trips 🔌

Bitdeer, the Bitcoin miner converting its Norway site for AI, signed a 16-year lease with seven-month-old Volta Infra Tuesday. Bloomberg identified Anthropic as Volta’s customer under a six-year, $10B compute contract, but Bitdeer’s premarket pop vanished by the close. Why did Bitdeer no pop after Volta helped connect it to Anthropic?

The RIP: $BTDR ( ▲ 0.09% ) rose 12.2% premarket, then closed up 0.1%. Its 121-megawatt lease is worth $4.7B, with $1.3B of credit support and roughly $500M of remaining capex.

For holders, Volta is the middleman: it leases Bitdeer’s capacity, adds Nvidia computing and cloud services, then resells compute to Anthropic. Next, Bitdeer must finish $500M of work and clear closing conditions before its lease takes effect. Watch Bitdeer’s projected 90% net operating margin, but don’t mistake the apparent $5.3B gap for Volta’s profit: Anthropic’s $10B, six-year compute contract and Bitdeer’s up-to-$4.7B, 16-year lease cover different services and timelines, and neither represents cash collected upfront.

The Community Read: The $BTDR room is 71% bullish, see why the deal faded ->

Jalapeño Scare Burns Chipotle… Burning Baño Part 2? 🌶️

On Tuesday, Minnesota officials linked suspected jalapeños served at Chipotle, the fast-casual burrito and bowl chain, and other Mexican-style restaurants to a salmonella outbreak. Chipotle removed the peppers from affected locations, but the news sent shares tumbling.

The RIP: $CMG ( ▼ 9.72% ) fell 9.7% to $33.82 on 51.6M shares, 2.6x recent pace. Minnesota identified 110 cases; 75 of 84 interviewed patients reported eating at Chipotle.

Restaurant investors care because a 110-case outbreak erased a tenth of MC even after Chipotle replaced peppers from affected growers. The FDA’s traceback investigation is the next checkpoint for separating a supplier problem from a broader restaurant risk. Watch whether cases rise beyond 110 or officials identify continued exposure, because either would keep food safety ahead of the fundamentals.

The Community Read: The $CMG room is 76% bullish despite the selloff, catch the jalapeño debate ->

POPS & DROPS
TRENDING NOW

$ZETA -4% | Zeta Global

14.9K WATCHERS · BULLISH · NORMAL ACTIVITY

Zeta Global slipped before earnings after closing a new $1B credit facility that replaced its previous $550M arrangement and expanded its capacity for acquisitions and buybacks. The bullish room sees more ammunition for AI-driven growth, while skeptics want the results to prove that the financing flexibility can produce durable returns.

$KTOS +13% | Kratos Defense

21.2K WATCHERS · NEUTRAL · NORMAL ACTIVITY

Kratos Defense surged into earnings after a run of military awards, including a roughly $36M sole-source air-defense contract, and the opening of a 167,000-square-foot Pennsylvania manufacturing facility. The expansion strengthens its hypersonics and drone pipeline, but the neutral room is debating how much future Pentagon growth is already embedded in the valuation.

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ST EDITOR’S PICKS
Links That Don’t Suck 🌐

📈Lucid Q2 results: Losses widen as automaker launches ‘operational reset’

🤑 Palantir jumps 20% on ‘otherworldly’ commercial revenue — here’s what’s driving the demand

😨 Michael Burry bets against rally: ‘We are near a major top, and possible a 1987-type fall’

💰️ AstraZeneca Faces Fresh Pressure As $400B Bristol Myers Deal Talks Reportedly Persist

📺️ Bessent says there may be deal Tuesday or Wednesday to open Strait of Hormuz with ‘freedom of movement’

👀 NVO Stock Drops 6% Despite Raised Guidance As Investors Worry About Injectable GLP-1 Sales Future

WHAT’S ON DECK
Tomorrow’s Top Things 📋

Macro: S&P Global Final Services PMI (9:45 AM ET), ISM Final Services PMI (10:00 AM ET). 📊
Pre-Market Earnings: $DIS Walt Disney Co (The), $SHOP Shopify Inc – Ordinary Shares – Class A (Sub Voting), $UBER Uber Technologies Inc, $RIOT Riot Platforms Inc, $ACB Aurora Cannabis Inc, +52 more. ☀️
After-Market Earnings: $XYZ Block Inc – Ordinary Shares – Class A, $BYND Beyond Meat Inc, $CLOV Clover Health Investments Corp – Ordinary Shares – Class A, $IONQ IonQ Inc, $SOUN SoundHound AI Inc – Ordinary Shares – Class A, +122 more. 🌙

P.S. You can listen to all of these earnings calls on Stocktwits.

Get In Touch 📬

Want to see some change? Email me, Kevin Travers with feedback, and follow me on Stocktwits. Refer a friend for this quarter’s edition of The RIP Forecast 😎 

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