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NEWS
Stocks Slide Despite Inflation Positives

Source: Tenor

It was another rough day for stock market bulls, who tried to hold their ground but were kept at bay by sellers. Big tech led to the downside, while a few defensive areas of the market caught a bid. The market is awaiting its next major catalyst, with momentum remaining to the downside in the interim. 👀 

Today’s issue covers stocks falling alongside inflation, Dollar General’s dire warning, a technical overview of the markets, and more from the day. 📰

Here’s the S&P 500 heatmap. 1 of 11 sectors closed green, with utilities (+0.25%) leading and consumer discretionary (-2.50%) lagging.

Source: Finviz

And here are the closing prices: 

STOCKS
Wholesale Prices Sink Alongside Stocks 📉 

February’s Producer Price Index (PPI) was flat YoY, below the 0.3% increase that economists had expected. Excluding food and energy, core PPI decreased 0.1%, marking its first negative reading since July. 😎 

The report follows yesterday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading that was also cooler than anticipated, reducing inflation fears in the market and turning the attention back toward recession potential.

The reading reinforced the market’s view that the Fed will keep rates unchanged next week and share commentary that the next rate cut is likely not until the back half of 2025. Given the economic volatility, the market is relying heavily on earnings growth to help buoy stocks at their historically elevated levels. ⏸️ 

A positive sign for the job market is that initial jobless claims remain subdued. While companies’ hiring rate has slowed, they’re also not cutting workers.

With stocks still sliding, Stocktwits sentiment on the S&P 500 remains in ‘bearish’ territory. Plus, roughly half of the 17,000+ investors voting in our poll believe that we are either in a recession or heading for one. That’s what’s weighing on markets.

Source: Stocktwits

With concerns about the economy front and center, earnings from Dollar General are a must-read. We cover them in our next story to see how low-to-middle-income consumers are faring in this environment. 👇️ 

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EARNINGS
Dollar General Finally Deliver 🤑 

After a string of disappointing showings, its fiscal fourth-quarter results finally broke the streak with revenue rising 4.5% YoY to top estimates. Additionally, revenue forecasts for the fiscal year 2025 of 3.4% to 4.4% showed the company has at least some shot of meeting the street’s 4.1% consensus expectation. 📊 

Fourth-quarter EPS and earnings guidance both fell short of estimates, with the company’s operating profit falling 49% YoY. Driving the decline was $232 million in costs related to store closures and Popshelf impairment charges.

Same-store sales rebounded back into growth territory, rising 1.2% YoY. With the company focused on reducing its store footprint, reigning in costs, and focusing on perks like same-day deliveries to buoy demand, management expects same-store sales to rise 1.2% to 2.2% this fiscal year. While not blow-out numbers, they are much better than a decline. 😅 

Dollar General’s story is about stability and keeping itself alive during this tough environment. With consumers continuing to spend on necessities instead of higher-margin discretionary items, management hopes 100 new private-label brand products can help boost margins and buoy profits while it attempts a broader turnaround. 🛒 

As for consumers, CEO Todd Vasos warned consumers “only have enough money for basic essentials” and that the macro environment isn’t likely to improve this year. ⚠️ 

Source: Stocktwits

And speaking of discretionary spending, Ulta Beauty had similar warnings about the consumer in this environment. Like other retailers, it’s buoyed its earnings for now but is preparing for the sales environment to remain challenged. 💄 

STOCKS
Other Noteworthy Pops & Drops 📋️ 

D-Wave Quantum, Inc. ($QBTS +20%): The quantum computing firm’s upbeat revenue guidance offset mixed fourth-quarter results. Bookings hit record highs.

Spire Global ($SPIR -13%): The data and analytics firm announced plans to raise $40 million through a private placement deal. Funds will be used for working capital and general corporate purposes.

SoFi Technologies ($SOFI -4%): The neobank announced the signing of its largest loan platform business agreement worth $5 billion with Blue Owl Capital.

SentinelOne ($S -5%): The cybersecurity vendor issued lackluster revenue guidance for the current quarter and year, offsetting its fourth-quarter beat.

Adobe ($ADBE -14%): The visual illustration and editing software maker issued weak revenue guidance, which took precedence over its fourth-quarter beat.

US Energy Corp. ($USEG -12%): Revenue declined 36% YoY, missing analyst estimates as it posted a wider-than-expected loss.

UiPath ($PATH -16%): Enterprise automation and artificial intelligence (AI) software company announced a quarterly earnings beat, but revenue and guidance missed.

Weibo ($WB -3%): The Chinese microblogging social media company reported a quarterly beat, with revenues also topping estimates despite falling 1% YoY. The company also adopted a $200 million annual dividend after board approval.

PRESENTED BY STOCKTWITS
CMT Lunch Hour: Howard & Aaron Jackon 🧑‍🏫 

Stocktwits CEO Howard Lindzon and Rotation Report founder Aaron Jackson discuss the latest market moves and Stocktwits community requests. They cover:

• Semis Slipping: AMD at an interesting level, but caution reigns as overbuild fears grow.

• Software Struggles: Cloudflare & Adobe under pressure—lofty valuations taking hits.

• Financials Weakening: Goldman Sachs at key levels, but no buyers stepping in. Credit spreads flashing warnings.

• Commodities Heating Up: Gold & silver breaking out.

• Consumer Concerns: Costco & homebuilders struggling—signs of a pullback.

• Mindset Shift: Cash is king. Trade small, stay defensive, wait for real strength.

WHAT’S ON DECK
Tomorrow’s Top Things 📋

Economic data: Michigan Consumer Sentiment (10:00 am). 📊

Pre-Market Earnings: Li Auto $(LI), Bit Digital ($BTBT), Gogo Inc. ($GOGO), DouYu International ($DOYU), Buckle ($BKE), RLX Technology ($RLX), WeRide ($WRD). 🛏️

After-Hour Earnings: Creative Realities ($CREX), FutureFuel ($FF). 🎧

P.S. You can listen to all of these earnings calls and more straight from the Stocktwits app or website. You’ll find them on the calendar page and individual symbol pages once they’re set to begin! We’ll see you there. 👍

Links That Don’t Suck 🌐

🧑‍🏫 Learn stock screening strategies from two-time investing champion Mark Minervini*

📝 Meta is launching Community Notes in the US next week

🥵 Walmart feels the heat in China after Trump imposes tariffs

🧑‍⚖️ Meta goes to arbitrator to prevent whistleblower from promoting tell-all book

📈 U.S. budget deficit surged in February, passing $1 trillion for year-to-date record

✈️ Spirit Airlines, fresh from bankruptcy, is ready to take on the new Southwest, CEO says

😎 He made Ikea bags chic and sold ‘destroyed’ sneakers. Now, he’s the designer of Gucci

🏆️ Vote now for your chance to win: The Stocktwits Cashtag Awards Presented By eToro

*3rd Party Ad. Not an offer or recommendation by Stocktwits. See disclosure here.

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