The Death Cross: Statistically Meaningless, Emotionally Devastating 💗

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Special Cryptowits Newsletter Today 🥳

The death cross gets headlines every single time. Bitcoin’s 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day and suddenly everyone’s a bear.

I pulled every Bitcoin death cross since 2011. All 13 of them. The data tells a different story than the doom merchants want you to believe.

TL;DR: Half of them were fake-outs. The average 1-year return after a death cross is +88%. And there are two rules – one technical, one on-chain – that tell you which type you’re dealing with. Both have 100%* historical accuracy.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
All The Death Crosses ☠️

The death cross is when the 50-day simple moving average crosses below the 200-day SMA. It’s supposed to signal a shift from bullish to bearish market structure. 🤔

Click to enlarge.

Here’s every one that’s ever happened:

1. Sep 21, 2011: $5.60. Max drawdown -64%. Resolved in 141 days. 1-year return +120%. Bear.

2. Mar 24, 2014: $568. Max drawdown -37%. Resolved in 109 days. 1-year return -57%. Bear.

3. Sep 9, 2014: $475. Max drawdown -67%. Resolved in 308 days. 1-year return -50%. Bear.

4. Sep 14, 2015: $230. Max drawdown -3%. Resolved in 44 days. 1-year return +165%. False signal.

5. Mar 30, 2018: $6,854. Max drawdown -54%. Resolved in 390 days. 1-year return -40%. Bear.

6. Oct 26, 2019: $9,231. Max drawdown -30%. Resolved in 115 days. 1-year return +41%. Bear.

7. Mar 25, 2020: $6,679. Max drawdown -12%. Resolved in 57 days. 1-year return +668%. False signal.

8. Jun 19, 2021: $35,513. Max drawdown -19%. Resolved in 88 days. 1-year return -42%. False signal.

9. Jan 14, 2022: $43,073. Max drawdown -64%. Resolved in 389 days. 1-year return -51%. Bear.

10. Sep 12, 2023: $25,835. Max drawdown -3%. Resolved in 48 days. 1-year return +122%. False signal.

11. Aug 10, 2024: $60,932. Max drawdown -14%. Resolved in 79 days. 1-year return +96%. False signal.

12. Apr 7, 2025: $79,163. Max drawdown -6%. Resolved in 45 days. False signal.

13. Nov 16, 2025: $94,260. Max drawdown -14% so far. Still active. TBD.

The Lagging Indicator Problem

The cross basically confirms what price had already shown. It didn’t predict anything.

September 2011: Price was 33% below the 200 SMA at the cross. March 2018: Price was 27% below. March 2020: Price was 20% below.

The death cross is a rear-view mirror indicator. By the time it triggers – the damage is usually done. Usually. 🔴 

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Death Crosses Are A Coin Flip 🪙

Of the 12 resolved death crosses – exactly half were noise. 🤯

Click to enlarge.

False Signals (6)

Sep 2015, Mar 2020, Jun 2021, Sep 2023, Aug 2024, Apr 2025

• Resolved in 44-88 days

• Max drawdowns: -3% to -19%

• Quick and painless-ish

Real Bears (6)

Sep 2011, Mar 2014, Sep 2014, Mar 2018, Oct 2019, Jan 2022

• Took 109-390 days to resolve

• Max drawdowns: -30% to -67%

• Extended pain

50/50 split. The death cross alone tells you nothing about which scenario you’re in.

Forward Returns After A Death Cross

Click to enlarge.

• 30 days: -4% average (38% win rate)

• 90 days: +18% average (58% win rate)

• 1 year: +88% average (55% win rate)

A “bearish” signal with positive average returns. Make it make sense.

The One Thing That’s Always True*

Every single death cross price has eventually been exceeded. 100%* recovery rate. If you bought every death cross and held – you made money every time. The catch: you needed conviction to sit through drawdowns as deep as -67%. 😶

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Finding An Edge 🔪

Here’s where this gets useful. Two rules – one technical, one on-chain – that actually tell you what you’re dealing with. 👇️

The 90-Day Rule (Technical)

Track how long price stays below the 200 SMA after the death cross.

Click to enlarge.

False signals – days below 200 SMA:

• Sep 2015: 22 days

• Mar 2020: 35 days

• Jun 2021: 51 days

• Sep 2023: 34 days

• Aug 2024: 13 days

• Apr 2025: 15 days

All under 52 days.

Real bears – days below 200 SMA:

• Sep 2011: 109 days

• Sep 2014: 293 days

• Mar 2018: 368 days

• Jan 2022: 364 days

All over 100 days.

The rule: If price is still below the 200 SMA at day 90 – it’s a bear market, well, probably. If price reclaims the 200 SMA before day 90 – it’s a false signal.

Historical accuracy: 100%*.

Day 45 works as an early warning (86% accuracy). Day 90 is the verdict.

The -0.5 Rule (On-Chain)

The 2-year MVRV compares market cap to realized cap – measuring whether holders are in profit or loss vs their cost basis. When it goes deeply negative – capitulation.

Click to enlarge.

When 2-year MVRV drops below -0.5:

• 90-day forward return: +73% average

• 1-year forward return: +234% average

• Win rate: 100%*

Every major cycle bottom hit this zone:

• Nov 2011: 2y MVRV = -0.61 (bottom at $2)

• Jan 2015: 2y MVRV = -0.59 (bottom at $165)

• Dec 2018: 2y MVRV = -0.52 (bottom at $3,177)

• Nov 2022: 2y MVRV = -0.54 (bottom at $15,504)

False signal bottoms – 2y MVRV stayed above -0.15:

• Jun 2021: +0.02

• Sep 2024: +0.14

• Apr 2025: +0.08

Real bear bottoms – 2y MVRV dropped below -0.50:

• Oct 2011: -0.64

• Jan 2015: -0.59

• Dec 2018: -0.52

• Nov 2022: -0.54

The pattern is clean*. False signals don’t see capitulation. Real bears do.

How They Work Together

1. The 90-Day Rule tells you what kind of death cross you’re in – real bear or noise.

2. The -0.5 Rule tells you when to buy if it’s a real bear.

3. Use the first to identify. Use the second to time.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
The Current Death Cross ⚠️

Bitcoin is currently in/on Death Cross number 13. An unlucky number. 😐️

Click to enalrge.

Current stats as of January 20, 2026:

• Death cross date: November 16, 2025

• Days since signal: 66

• Price at signal: $94,260

• Current price: $88,400 (-6%)

• 200 SMA: $105,629

• 50 SMA: $90,367

• Cycle low so far: $80,698 (Nov 21)

• Days below 200 SMA: 66

• 2-year MVRV: -0.062

The Day 65 Pattern Match

At day 65 – every* historical death cross had already shown its hand.

Click to enlarge.

False signals at day 65: Price was ABOVE the 200 SMA in all six cases.

• Sep 2015: +46% from DC price, above 200 SMA

• Mar 2020: +41%, above 200 SMA

• Jun 2021: +40%, above 200 SMA

• Sep 2023: +40%, above 200 SMA

• Aug 2024: +9%, above 200 SMA

• Apr 2025: +37%, above 200 SMA

Bear markets at day 65: Price was BELOW the 200 SMA in all six cases.

• Sep 2011: -55%, below 200 SMA

• Mar 2014: +1%, below 200 SMA

• Sep 2014: -10%, below 200 SMA

• Mar 2018: +13%, below 200 SMA

• Oct 2019: -21%, below 200 SMA

• Jan 2022: -4%, below 200 SMA

Current (Nov 2025): -6%, below 200 SMA

Every false signal had reclaimed the 200 SMA by day 65. This one hasn’t.

That’s the single most important data point right now.

The Conflicting Signals

• Bearish: 66 days below 200 SMA – matches bear market pattern

• Neutral: 2y MVRV at -0.062 – far from capitulation

• Unclear: Halving cycle (576 days post-halving) – historical window for post-euphoria corrections

The technical picture looks bearish. The on-chain picture is ambiguous. Either we’re near the bottom of a false signal – or we’re early innings of something worse. 😭 

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
So… What Happens Next? Three Scenarios🤔

Scenario 1: Late False Signal

• Price rallies +19% and reclaims $105,629 before Feb 14

• Would be unprecedented – no false signal has been this late

• Requires a catalyst

• Probability: Low

Scenario 2: Real Bear Market

• Price stays below 200 SMA past day 90 (Feb 14)

• 2y MVRV eventually drops toward -0.50

• Historical bear drawdowns from DC: -30% to -67%

• Applied to current: $66K to $31K

• Probability: Elevated given day 65 pattern

Scenario 3: Extended Chop

• Price oscillates without resolution

• Similar to Oct 2019 – 115 days to golden cross, -30% max drawdown, no MVRV capitulation

• Frustrating for everyone

• Probability: Moderate

The Verdict Date

February 14, 2026 – Day 90.

• If price closes above $105,629 before then – false signal. 100%* historical accuracy.

• If price is still below $105,629 – bear market. 100%* historical accuracy.

24 days to find out. Wait, it’s the 21st now, 23 days left to find out. 📆 

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
* The * Fine * Print *

Notice all those asterixesesss? These: * * * * * ? 🫢

Let’s be honest about what “100% accuracy” really means here.

The sample size is small. The 90-Day Rule is based on 12 resolved death crosses. Twelve. One weird cycle and the pattern breaks. “100% accuracy” on n=12 is just pattern recognition.

The -0.5 MVRV Rule has triggered 4 times. Four. Yes, buying at -0.5 has always been profitable within a year. But four data points across 15 years isn’t a trading system.

“Everything recovers” is true but misleading: The question isn’t whether you make money eventually. It’s how long you sit underwater and how much pain you absorb getting there. I mean, I like to get in on things when there down as much as anyone else, I just don’t want to be kicked in the nuts for 300+ days either.

Real bear death crosses – time to recover the entry price:

• Sep 2014: DC at $475. Bottom at $157 (-67%). Didn’t see $475 again for 14 months.

• Mar 2018: DC at $6,854. Bottom at $3,177 (-54%). Didn’t recover for 13 months.

• Jan 2022: DC at $43,073. Bottom at $15,504 (-64%). Didn’t see $43K again for 2 years.

If this is a real bear and you bought at $94K – history says you might wait 1-2 years to break even. And you’d sit through -30% to -65% drawdown in the meantime. That’s the pain zone.

The “all clear” buy signal at -0.5 MVRV isn’t comfortable either. The conditions that create a -0.5 reading – mass capitulation, exchanges blowing up, macro panic – aren’t exactly easy to buy into.

What this analysis gives you:

• A framework for identifying which type of death cross you’re in (not a guarantee)

• Historical thresholds that have worked before (not a promise they’ll work again)

• Context for the current setup relative to past setups (not a prediction)

The rules are useful. The patterns are real. But small samples are small samples. Trade accordingly. 🧠 

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