The US Deficit – The Big Winner of This Election

Good afternoon everyone.

This tweet got my attention as I wait to see who we elect to spend our way deeper into the financial unknown:

Breaking:
The winner of the US election: The US deficit

— Sven Henrich (@NorthmanTrader)
2:13 PM • Nov 5, 2024

Do not worry….I am not going all macro in my late years

I believe the alpha is the feet, the eyes, the ears and the nose. Street level is the best way to find and create alpha for the average investor.

But, with so much money sloshing around and interest rates high and rising, global macro is a big thing once again.

Every Venture Capitalists and internet entrepreneur is all of a sudden a global macro expert.

Elon is warning of a crash if Trump gets elected…because of course it is possible and of course easy and fun to tweet. It is also a ‘social capital’ hedge that costs him nothing. Just a tweet. While a ‘crash’ would not help his $TSLA stock, it is a blip in his wallet and I sense he thinks it would be fun to watch especially now that he is predicting it.

If Kamala gets elected, Elon and Trump will be predicting a crash every day because that is what their cult wants to hear.

My gut is that while all the billionaires and their cults of personality chasers glob onto this new low cost toy of predicting crashes and recessions, good investors will just keep buying dips in all kinds of stocks, especially what I call the ‘Trends with NO Friends’. You can follow along with this list we share each day.

I do think Sven (above) is right though and neither party or candidate has the nerve to shut off the spending.

It is why Gold and Bitcoin keep trending higher now together.

Have a great rest of the day.