The Week in Charts (11/23/25)
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The most important charts and themes in markets and investing…
1) The End of a Historic Uptrend and the Return of Risk
The S&P 500 closed below its 50-day moving average last week for the first time since April 30, ending the 5th longest uptrend since 1950 at 198 days.
Here’s what happened after the end of the longest uptrends since 1950…
What you’ll notice in that table is there’s no signal in there. After the end of a long uptrend in the past, sometimes the market bounced back with gains over the next year and other times the market would continue lower. There’s no way to predict what will happen this time around.
What we can say is more likely than not, however, is the return of volatility and risk which has been notably absent over the last seven months. The 40+% rally off of the April lows was an abnormally smooth advance without so much as a 5% pullback.
But last week, we saw a return to normalcy with the S&P 500 declining 5.8% from its October peak. This was the 31st correction >5% since the March 2009 low. Each one came with a scary headline. Each one felt like the end of the world. But the world never ended and the market eventually recovered to hit new highs.
The S&P 500 fell 1.6% last Thursday, marking the 27th daily decline in 2025 with a loss >1%. This is not at all unusual – the average year since 1928 has 29 large declines. Downside volatility is the price of admission for investors – without it, there would be no reward.
2) A 50-year Mortgage?
That’s what some within the Federal government are now proposing.
Why? Because we have the least affordable housing market in history.
But will this actually improve affordability?
Not likely.
Why? Because no bank would issue such a loan without a government guarantee. And so you are artificially increasing demand, which in turn will (all else equal) drive up prices.
What led to the lack of affordability in the first place?
Exactly these types of policies, artificial demand from the Federal Reserve (cutting rates to 0%, buying trillions of mortgage bonds, printing money, etc.) and the Federal Government (deficit spending, doubling the national debt in the last decade, increase in power of Fannie/Freddie, etc.).
So the very cause of the problem is being proposed as the solution?
Correct. And on top of that, a 50-year mortgage would more than double the amount of interest paid compared to a 30-year. And only 5% of payments in the first 10 years would go towards principal with 95% going towards interest. Doesn’t sound like a panacea to me.
3) What to Make Inflation Spike Again?
Easy.
Just send a $2,000 “tariff dividend” check to all Americans.
Why would that increase inflation?
Because there’s no Federal surplus of funds sitting in an account just waiting to be sent out. We are currently running a $2 trillion deficit that would increase if you take money from the revenue side (tariff duties) and move it to the spending side (stimulus checks).
That would mean too much money chasing too few goods, with the end result being higher prices.
Sound familiar?
It should. We did this three separate times back in 2020-2021, and what followed was the highest inflation we’ve seen in 40 years (9.1% CPI).
4) Addicted to Easing
All it took was a 5% pullback in the S&P 500 to set the plunge protection team in motion.
After the dovish comments from NY Fed President John Williams, the odds of a rate cut in December jump to over 70%, up from 40% a week ago.
This much is clear: the stock market’s become addicted to easy money and the Fed is a willing supplier.
With inflation where it is today (4%/year over last 5 years), the Fed should not even be thinking about cutting rates. But they lost all credibility as an inflation fighter a few years ago when they dismissed the biggest inflation spike since the early 1980s as “transitory.”
5) Rising Delinquencies
12.4% of credit card balances in the US are now 90+ days delinquent, the highest we’ve seen since 2011.
6.7% of subprime auto borrowers are now at least 60 days past due, the highest level on record.
6) Know What You Own and Why You Own It
Bitcoin is down 1% over the past year while the Bitcoin Treasury company MicroStrategy ($MSTR) has fallen 63%.
How did that happen?
A year ago during the post-election crypto mania MicroStrategy’s stock traded at a market cap that was more than 3x higher than the value of its underlying Bitcoin holdings.
And last week during the crypto correction, its market value fell slightly below the value of its Bitcoin holdings.
7) The Physical/Digital Gold Divergence
Gold (+55%) is the best performing major asset in 2025 while Bitcoin (-9%) is now the worst. This is something we haven’t seen before in any calendar year (the inverse of 2013).
Gold is now outperforming Bitcoin by 19% since the inception of the first Bitcoin ETF in January 2024.
How did this happen?
Bitcoin is now down around 36% from its all-time high of $126,300 in early October. That’s the biggest correction off an all-time high since 2022. Is this unusual volatility for Bitcoin? Not at all. We’ve seen similar or bigger drawdowns every year.
8) A Few Interesting Stats…
a) The US National Debt has now increased by over $2 trillion since the Debt Ceiling was raised back in July. The Federal Government continues to borrow from our future to spend money like drunken sailors today.
b) 45% of fund managers surveyed by Bank of America in November said an “AI bubble” was the biggest tail risk for markets, spiking from just 11% in September. Over half of these investors said they think AI stocks are already in a bubble.
c) The office vacancy rate in the US has moved up to 20.7%, the highest level in history. Related: The delinquency rate on CMBS loans for office properties has moved up to 11.8%, the highest level on record.
d) In the first 8 months of 2025, the US trade deficit was 25% higher than the first 8 months of 2024.
e) A record 32% of household wealth is now held by Americans that are 70 years of age and older.
And that’s it for this week. Thanks for reading!
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Disclaimer: All information provided is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Read our full disclosures here.
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