The Week in Charts (7/14/25)

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The most important charts and themes in markets and investing…

1) Breaking Down the Big, Beautiful Bill

Here are the major tax changes under the Big Beautiful Bill, in one chart…

2) The Sky’s the Limit

The US is currently running a $2 trillion deficit and this is expected to increase in the coming years after the passage of the Big, Beautiful Bill.

Which is why the debt ceiling was raised by $5 trillion under the bill.

What does that mean for National Debt?

The sky’s the limit.

We’ve already seen a $410 billion increase in debt since the ceiling was raised last week. We’ll soon cross above $37 trillion and $40 trillion is likely within the next two years.

3) When Do the Chickens Come Home to Roost?
Japan’s 30-year bond yield has spiked to 3.17% – the highest level on record. A preview of what’s coming for the US if we don’t get our deficit/debt spiral under control. The chickens eventually come home to roost. The only question is when.

4) Waiting for the Cliff’s Edge

The Social Security Trust Fund is now projected to run dry in late 2032 — two years sooner than expected. The Big, Beautiful Bill accelerates the drawdown because fewer people will be paying taxes on social security benefits (due to the $6k bonus deduction for seniors).

Congress could act now to shore it up (by raising the retirement age, lifting the income cap, etc.).

But history suggests they’ll wait until the cliff’s edge is in view.

5) From Bullion to Blockchain

Gold (+28%) and Bitcoin (+26%) are now the top performing major assets so far in 2025. We’ve never seen these two in the #1/#2 spots for any calendar year.

Bitcoin hit $123,000 today for the first time. 10 years ago it was trading at $286. That’s a 430x increase (+83% annualized).

Here are the returns for Bitcoin since 2010…

6) The First $4 Trillion Company

10 years ago Nvidia had a market cap of $10.6 billion.

Since then, its market cap has increased 377x to become the world’s first $4 trillion company.

Who will be the first to hit $5 trillion? Poll results…

7) Not Equally Magnificent

We’re seen a wide dispersion among the Mag 7 so far this year:

• Nvidia/Meta/Microsoft outperforming
• Amazon/Google/Apple/Tesla underperforming

This is a big shift from the previous few years when they all moved in tandem.

8) Another Day, Another Tariff Threat, Another ATH

Another day, another tariff threat. Here are a few of the latest headlines:

• “Trump says 50% tariff on copper imports will begin Aug. 1.”
• “Trump threatens 35% Tariff on Some Canadian Goods.”
• “Trump to impose 50% Brazil Tariff.”
• “Trump announces 30% tariffs on EU and Mexico, starting Aug 1.”

Meanwhile, the stock market continues to shrug this off completely, seemingly on the belief that none of the threats will come to pass. The S&P 500 hit its 8th all-time of the year last week with a total return that is above the average year at this point in time.

9) The Condo Crash?

Condo prices just posted their 2nd‑biggest YoY drop on record: –2.2% in May.

Why the slump?

• 80% more condo sellers than buyers
• Surging HOA fees, insurance costs & special assessments
• Financing hurdles

With inventory at a decade high, we should see further declines to come.

Here are the metro areas with the biggest YoY price declines in the Condo market. Florida is dominating the list…

10) A Few Interesting Stats…

a) A stunning fact: Americans are now spending more on health care than food or housing.

b) Including dividends, the S&P 500 has now gained 1,170% since the March 2009 low – despite 30 corrections >5%.

c) Waymo is stepping on the gas. Morgan Stanley is projecting its revenue to hit $1.79 billion by 2029 – an 18x surge from 2024 levels.

d) Bitcoin’s market cap has surged past both Google and Amazon.

e) Since 1989, the S&P 500 has actually performed better on average in the 1-5 years following an all-time high than other time periods.

Every week I do a video breaking down the most important charts and themes in markets and investing. Subscribe to our YouTube channel HERE for the latest content.

Disclaimer: All information provided is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Read our full disclosures here.

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