This Negative Is A Positive 🤔
OVERVIEW
This Negative Is A Positive 🤔
Before we dive in, here’s today’s crypto market heatmap:
Source: finviz
And here’s a look at crypto’s total market and altcoin market cap charts:
Source: TradingView
ON-CHAIN ANALYSIS
Four Assets, One Message: Less Bearish Is the New Bullish
Markets love to punish conviction. The question is whether they’re done punishing or just taking a breather. 😌
MVRV ratios – Market Value to Realized Value – tell you if holders are sitting on gains (positive) or losses (negative). Right now? Losses. But the 30-day window is climbing out of the basement faster than the 90-day and 180-day numbers.
That’s not bullish. That’s less bearish. Which in crypto might as well be a parade.
Bitcoin: The Least Broken Toy
Click to enlarge.
Bitcoin’s negative across the board but barely. The 30-day MVRV at -4.4% says recent buyers are only mildly underwater – like dipping a toe in quicksand instead of jumping in face-first. The 90-day and 180-day sitting around -7.5% means the last six months weren’t pretty, but nothing catastrophic either.
Near-term call: Neutral with a bullish tilt. You’re not buying euphoria here. You’re buying “everyone’s tired and nobody’s excited.” That’s usually when floors get built. If you’ve been waiting for a decent entry that doesn’t require a helmet, this might be it. 🪖
Ethereum: The Deep End
Click to enlarge.
Ethereum got wrecked harder than Bitcoin – look at that 90-day number sitting at -17%. Ouch. But the 30-day MVRV improved to -7.6%, which means the last month of price action clawed back some dignity. Still underwater, but less drowning-more-treading-water.
Near-term call: Cautiously bullish. The 90-day pain suggests this was a proper washout. The 30-day recovery says short-term holders aren’t panic-selling anymore. If you’re accumulating alts, ETH looks like it’s done bleeding out – for now. 🩸
Chainlink: The Oracle of Pain
LINK holders ate it hard over the last three months – that -19% on the 90-day MVRV is brutal. The 180-day at -15% confirms this wasn’t a quick dip; it was a sustained beating. But the 30-day number climbing to -6.6% shows buyers stepping in recently, probably the “it can’t go lower” crowd who may actually be right this time.
Near-term call: Bullish for the brave. LINK’s bouncing off deeply oversold levels. The 30-day improvement versus the 90-day carnage screams “bottoming process.” Not a bottom – a process. Big difference. If you’re into oracles and smart contract infrastructure, this is the zone to layer in. 🛣️
Cardano: The Biggest Loser
Click to enlarge.
ADA wins the pain Olympics. A 90-day MVRV of -23% and 180-day at -22% means holders have been bleeding for months. The saving grace? The 30-day MVRV recovering to -8.9% suggests the worst is over – or at least paused. That’s a +14% improvement from the 90-day trough. Not nothing.
Near-term call: Bullish if you like high-risk setups. ADA’s technically the most beaten down, which makes it either a value trap or a coiled spring. The 30-day recovery hints at accumulation. If you’re a believer in Cardano’s long-term narrative, this is probably as cheap as it gets without waiting for another crypto winter. ❄️
So… What’s The TL;DR?
Who’s buying: People who think Q1 2026 will be better than Q3 2025. People accumulating quietly. People who don’t care about being early because they know they’re not late.
Who’s selling: Nobody, really. Volume’s probably trash and conviction’s low. That’s actually bullish – capitulation looks like apathy, not panic.
You’re staring at four assets sitting in the value zone – not deep value, not screaming bargains, but definitely not expensive. The 30-day MVRV improvement says the worst of the selling pressure has eased. Near-term outlook: cautiously bullish for BTC, outright bullish for ETH/LINK/ADA if you have the stomach for volatility and a fetish for pain and misery.
MVRV doesn’t predict the future – it tells you where holders stand right now. Right now, they’re underwater but climbing. Whether they make it to shore or sink again depends on what happens next in macro, regulation, and whether Bitcoin decides to remember it’s supposed to go up sometimes. 🧠
UN-Limited Limit Orders in DeFi
CoW Swap limit orders offer:
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Unlimited order placement: Use one crypto balance to place multiple orders at once, even if you don’t have the full amount yet. That’s useful!
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Unlimited order surplus: All upside captured after a price is hit goes to you and not to order takers. As it should be!
Plus everything else you know and love about CoW Swap, like gasless trading and MEV protection.
NEWS
This Blockchain Thing Just Got Personal 🫡
I grew up in rural America. Spent my entire life in the Midwest and Great Plains. 🏦
And more often than not, the small town bank for a city of 1,200 people is the place that decides whether a local business stays solvent through a bad year or whether a Main Street business gets to expand.
They keep local economies running.
And for decades, they’ve been stuck with one hand tied behind their backs – unable to access the same capital markets and liquidity tools that big institutions use to manage risk and free up lending capacity.
That’s changing. And it matters more than most crypto people realize.
Enter AVAX And Friends
Intain Markets and FIS just launched the Digital Liquidity Gateway on $AVAX.X ( ▼ 4.66% ). It’s a marketplace where roughly 2,000 regional and community banks can now buy, sell, and securitize loan portfolios with the same tools previously reserved for Wall Street.
And it’s a thing happening right now, not a ‘thing coming in the future’, but right now. Hundreds of millions in transactions are expected by year-end. Banks are onboarding now.
For context – these community banks handle most of America’s small business lending and commercial real estate financing. They know their borrowers. They understand local markets. They take risks on projects that algorithms would reject.
But they’ve historically lacked efficient ways to distribute those loans to broader investor capital. That limits how much they can lend. 🫂
Why This Hits Different
Asset-backed finance is old school – banks pool loans (small business, commercial real estate, whatever), then sell those pools to investors. This frees up the bank’s balance sheet to make more loans.
Digital Liquidity Gateway runs on Intain’s Avalanche Layer-1. Loan data gets verified instantly. Settlements happen programmatically. Everything lives on-chain where participants can see it.
FIS integration means this plugs directly into core banking systems – not some parallel universe that requires rebuilding everything.
This is blockchain technology doing something useful for the financial backbone of rural America – the community banks that kept my hometown running, that finance farmers through rough seasons, that back local businesses when venture capital wouldn’t touch them with a 10-foot pole. 🎂
NEWS
Gemini Proves CEXs Can Do Privacy Without Freaking Out 🕵️
Most centralized exchanges treat privacy features like radioactive material. Gemini just proved that’s a choice, not a requirement. ⛓️
They’ve upgraded $ZEC.X ( ▼ 14.29% ) withdrawal support to include Orchard – the shielded pool – making them the only major exchange offering best-in-class privacy directly to users. No workarounds. No “just use transparent addresses.”
Just actual privacy, on demand.
Now that Gemini supports Orchard directly, this means:
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Keystone users can finally withdraw shielded ZEC straight to hardware wallets
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Zashi users get withdrawals directly into Orchard, whether using the main wallet or connected to Keystone
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Gemini automatically picks the most secure shielded option in your Unified Address
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No more invalid address errors – it just works
The Dual-Address System Is a Feature
Transparent ZEC is the bridge for shielding or not.
It exists to make Zcash adoption easier for platforms and teams that can’t or won’t implement shielded support immediately. It’s an adapter that lowers barriers to entry.
Users can move from transparent to shielded anytime with one tap in wallets like Zashi. Best-in-class privacy is available on demand. You just have to choose it.
Until exchanges follow Gemini’s lead, transparent ZEC remains a necessary on-ramp. Not perfect, but it expands access to world-class privacy tools. 👍️
NEWS IN THREE SENTENCES
AI, Stablecoins, & Privacy News 🕵️
🎫 World ID Kicks Bots Out of Ricardo Arjona Tickets, Humans Finally Get First Dibs
Automated traffic on major ticketing sites hit 86.5% in 2024 – bots and scalpers dominate before real fans get a shot. World is partnering with Latin music icon Ricardo Arjona for the first ticket sale reserved exclusively for verified humans via World ID. World ID proves you’re a unique human anonymously without storing personal data, basically a digital stamp saying “real person, not bot” that doesn’t reveal who you are. Worldcoin.
🔐 COTI Sells “Auditable Privacy” as Goldilocks Solution Between Total Anonymity and Doxing Yourself
With EU’s 2027 privacy coin ban looming and Samourai Wallet crackdown fresh, COTI’s selling “auditable privacy” – selective visibility where transaction details stay hidden from public but regulators get permissioned access. Institutions need privacy from competitors and transparency for regulators – absolute anonymity attracts legal jeopardy, full transparency leaks sensitive business intel, COTI’s compliant privacy reconciles both.
NEWS IN THREE SENTENCES
DeFi, DEX, & Lending News 🏦
🛡️ Balancer Sends “Pls Return Funds” Message Onchain, Also Warns About Incoming Scammers
When exploits hit, scammers crawl out promising “recovery services” or “official refunds” that are just another way to drain wallets, so Balancer’s drawing a line in the sand about legitimate communications. Balancer sent an on-chain message to all known addresses involved in Monday’s exploit, offering a path for the hacker to return funds and warning affected users they’re working on updates. The team’s also cautioning against scams and phishing attempts that may flood replies. Balancer.
🔥 Uniswap Drops UNIfication: Fee Switch Goes Brrr, Labs Stops Charging Users
Uniswap’s turning on protocol fees across v2/v3/v4, burning UNI with those fees plus Unichain sequencer revenue, building MEV-internalizing auctions, and retroactively burning 100M UNI from treasury. Labs shifts from monetizing its interface to protocol growth (interface/wallet/API fees go to zero), Foundation teams move to Labs, governance creates 20M UNI annual growth budget. Uniswap.
LINKS
Links That Don’t Suck 🔗
😱 ‘We should migrate now’ to post-quantum encryption, researcher says
🤫 Privacy tools are rising behind institutional adoption, says ZKsync dev
🔃 SEC vs Crypto era could be ending as US Senators want CFTC in charge
⛏️ CoreWeave plunges after cutting revenue outlook on data center issues
🤖 San Francisco startup Tuurny builds AI robot to “Mine” electronic waste for critical chips
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Author Disclosure: The author of this newsletter holds positions in AVAX, ADA, PUDGY, WLC, IMX, XTZ, NEAR, HBAR, ALGO, INJ, LTC, LINK, ZEC, XLM, and FET. 📋
