CLOSING BELL
‘Twas The Night Before Rate Cuts

It was the night before a (likely) rate cut, and all through the house, not a soul was stirring, not even record Nasdaq prices.

The market pulled back as all eyes watched the most dramatic FOMC meeting in at least a year, with expectations that a cutting cycle is about to start, despite rising prices.

The tech slowdown saw Google pull back after becoming the fourth company to break $3T in market cap on Monday. Nvidia fell on worries that delayed talks with China will push the world power negative on Nvidia as a bargaining chip.  👀

Today’s News: FOMC rate cuts likley on the way, TikTok deal rumor sees Oracle and VC win, and more. 📰

3 of 11 sectors closed green, with energy $XLE ( ▲ 1.68% ) leading and utilities $XLU ( ▼ 1.82% ) lagging.

 $SPY ( ▼ 0.14% )  $QQQ ( ▼ 0.09% )  $IWM ( ▼ 0.17% )  $DIA ( ▼ 0.28% ) 

MACRO
All Eyes On The FOMC Wednesday, Sell The News Or Buy The Hype? 🤩 

All eyes were on the oft-criticised FOMC decision at 2pm ET tomorrow. Alongside the rate decision, the Fed will drop its dot plot graph, which will show where the voting members see rates and inflation trending over the final two meetings in 2025, and in 2026 and 2027. The last dot plot was in June, when the Fed had to reason with tariffs that were driving prices higher.

Mortgage rates fell to a 3-year low, gold and Bitcoin held back right alongside of tech.

Compared to the previous March projection, members over the summer projected higher price climbs, and higher for longer Federal Funds rates, shown below.

June 2025 rate projection vs. March

The struggle, outside of defending their seats from political arguments, is to “look through” price climbs from high tariffs and decide if underlying inflation is under control.

For the first time, President Trump’s Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Trump could accept rate increases if inflation spikes. It’s not just prices the Fed is worried about: it’s a dual mandate also to manage the job market. The FOMC repeats the mantra every decision, and unemployment data has been bad, as the BLS, even with a new leader, revised job addition numbers lower by nearly a million over the past year.

There is positive news. Retail purchases rose in value in the past month, according to government data Tuesday morning, and Americans seem to be in a good consumer mood. The weakening job market, the biggest reason for rate cuts outside of pushes from the Trump Administration, has not hit consumers yet, according to commentators like Analyst Bret Kenwell at eToro.

“In other words, would the recent job weakness impact consumer spending? The short answer appears to be no,” Kenwell told Bloomberg.

There are other points of view. A CNBC survey found 82% of fund managers and economist respondents think Trump’s campaign to pressure the Fed is an effort to remove independence. Nearly a third of respondents believed that reduced independence leads to higher inflation and lower economic growth.

The idea is that without an independent monetary policy, those in power will naturally prioritize short-term gains by choosing easy outs, printing money, and lowering rates to achieve it, ignoring longer-term problems like inflation.

As for who is voting in the meeting, Stephen Miran was confirmed to Fed board in 48–47 vote, and recently spooked bond market traders with a comment that the Fed also has a third mandate to regulate interest rates. Traders set longer-term rates and define how lenders price 30-year loans on houses. A judge blocked the Trump attempt to remove Governor Cook, and she’s voting in this meeting.

CME Fedwatch sees a 96% chance of a 25 basis point cut.

What type of FOMC action do you predict?

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BUYOUT NEWS
TikTok Deal Is More Like A Fourth Ban Delay, But Oracle’s Buying ⭕️ 

Tuesday, the Wall Street Journal reported more info on the TikTok deal announced on Truth Social over the weekend. Turns out it is yet another pause to the TikTok ban while investors line up. But at least there are investors, right?

But if you had bet on Oracle’s Larry Ellison over Elon Musk buying a stake, you’d be winning big. The arrangement was discussed between U.S. and Chinese negotiators in Madrid, according to the WSJ. The framework currently looks like private equity Silver Lake, Adressen Horowitz, and Oracle will take over an 80% stake of TikTok’s U.S. assets.

One member of the new board would be selected by the U.S. government, according ot the report. Oracle would house the data in a Texas facility, and users will be asked to move over to a new app currently under development. The new deadline for the deal is Dec. 16, but negotiations have been ongoing since January.

After becoming the new richest man and securing a spot in the prized TikTok buyout, you’d think Ellison can’t keep winning?

IN PARTNERSHIP WITH
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POPS & DROPS
Top Stocktwits News Stories 🗞️ 

• Opendoor drops 6% and Shkreli reveals short.

• Hershey climbs 4% after Goldman issues Buy rating.

• Tesla rises 3% as Musk buys $1B stake.

• Nukkleus popped 10% after withdrawing its S-1 registration.

• United Airlines to hire 2,500 at Newark; adds SAF and new global routes.

• Dave & Buster’s sinks 17% on Q2 miss, retail stays bullish.

• Workday to buy AI firm Sana for $1.1B.

• Google unveils crypto-friendly payments protocol with Coinbase.

• Ralph Lauren drops after cautious 3-year outlook.

• Webtoon jumps 40% on Disney comics deal.

• Rocket Lab drops 12% on $750M ATM offering.

Don’t miss a story! Follow @StocktwitsNews for a live feed in real time. ✍️ 

PARTNER MESSAGE
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This is a hypothetical example and is not representative of any specific security. Actual results when working with a financial advisor will vary. *3rd Party Ad. Not an offer or recommendation by Stocktwits. See disclosure here.

WHAT’S ON DECK
Tomorrow’s Top Things 📋

Economic data: Housing Starts (8:30 AM), Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 AM), Atlanta Fed GDPNow (11:30 AM), Fed Interest Rate Decision (2:00 PM), FOMC Press Conference (2:30 PM) 📊
Pre-Market Earnings: General Mills ($GIS) and Manchester United ($MANU). 🛏️
After-Market Earnings: Nano Dimension ($NNDM) and Cracker Barrel ($CBRL). 🌕️ 

P.S. You can listen to all of these earnings calls on the calendar page.

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😨 Trump Says He’s Bringing $15 Billion Lawsuit Against New York Times

🏠️ Microsoft announces $30 billion investment in AI infrastructure, operations in UK

💊 Eli Lilly to build $5 billion Virginia facility to boost production of targeted cancer drugs, other treatments

Charlie Kirk shooting suspect Tyler Robinson charged with murder, faces possible death penalty

*3rd Party Ad. Not an offer or recommendation by Stocktwits. See disclosure here. 

Get In Touch 📬

Want to see some change? Email me, Kevin Travers, your feedback; follow me on Stocktwits. What did I miss? What do you want to see? I’d love to hear from you. 📧 

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