Vibes Are Low, Prices Are High
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CLOSING BELL
Vibes Are Low, Prices Are High
Nvidia delivered another blowout quarter but the stock still fell nearly 5% Thursday as investors wrestle with a new and harder-to-dismiss class of AI anxiety. The expectations seem higher than ever. A lack of a ‘why’ the stock will change the world, and a lack of data from businesses in China left questions unanswered.
Jensen Huang spent time on CNBC telling the world that AI replacing software is “the most illogical thing in the world,” which is not a sentence you expect from a CEO who just posted the best quarter in AI chip history.
Smaller traders, like you and me, bought the decline at record levels, according to analyst Viraj Patel.
Stellantis, a big three automaker, posted a massive $26B loss Thursday morning, which didn’t help the overall mood. It was a vibe-session session, but earnings from Salesforce and Figma showed great AI software returns despite the ‘outdated’ perception tied to photo editing and business software. There might be light at the end of the software doom tunnel.
Later Thursday night, Netflix jumped 10% after it reportedly refused to raise its offer to buy Warner Bros., leaving Paramount Skydance with the winning ticket. PSky raised its bid to $31/share, at $112B and change.
AFTER THE BELL
Block and Dell Show How It’s Done ⏹️ 🖥️
Block Efficiency Pivot Ignites Growth Trajectory 💳
$XYZ ( ▲ 16.82% ) reported Q4 results that signal a lean transformation, and the company is pursuing the “Rule of 40” through a different path- a sweeping 40% workforce reduction.
The Bitcoin seller delivered $0.65 adjusted EPS, edging out the $0.64 analyst estimate, despite revenue of $6.25B slightly missing the $6.29B consensus. The bottom-line beat was anchored by a 24% jump in gross profit to $2.87B, showing growth in both Square and Cash App.
Aggressive cost-cutting is the reason why margins are growing. It won’t be easy, expect $500M in restructuring charges to finalize its headcount reduction of about 4,000 employees. Management raised its 2026 outlook, now targeting $12.20B in gross profit and an ambitious $3.20B in adjusted operating income. With a revised EPS target of $3.66 for the coming year and $5.3B remaining in share repurchase authorization.
Dell Technologies AI Infrastructure Blitz Shatters Records 🖥️
$DELL ( ▲ 21.93% ) shares surged 7% after-hours as the hardware giant crushed Wall Street expectations, cementing its pivot from a PC maker to an ‘AI architect.’
$3.89 non-GAAP EPS on $33.4B in revenue came in $10B above estimates. It was a 39% year-over-year revenue explosion fueled by a staggering 342% skyrocket in server sales. Dell is boosting its buybacks by $10B on top of the beat.
With $43B AI server backlog, Dell’s FY27 outlook is aggressively optimistic, projecting revenue between $138B and $142B against the $124.9B consensus. Supported by a 20% dividend hike and $10B buyback expansion, the company’s $12.90 EPS target paints a hopeful multi-year growth story.
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TRENDING STOCKS
Anthropics Friday Deadline 🔫
Anthropic is in the fight of its corporate life. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth gave CEO Dario Amodei until 5:01 p.m. Friday to drop the guardrails on its AI models or face consequences, according to Bloomberg.
The standoff boils down to two red lines Anthropic refuses to cross: no mass domestic surveillance, and no robot conrolled guns autonomous weapons without human oversight. The Pentagon’s position is simpler. They want to write the rules of engagement, and use Anthropic AI to do it. Hegseth threatened two punishments this week: invoke the Defense Production Act to force Anthropic to hand over its models, or designate the company a supply-chain risk.
The latter would require every Pentagon contractor, including Palantir, which runs Claude inside its Maven Smart System battle management platform, to certify they don’t use Anthropic products. One analyst called that outcome “almost fatal” to the business.
Anthropic has been a team player so far. It’s the first AI company cleared for classified military systems, reportedly deployed during the Maduro capture operation. There are other options for AI bullet counters, but none as serious: according to Bloomberg Google’s Gemini is also reportedly close to a classified deal.
The thing is, the Pentagon is going to use an AI, and they have been using AI for years. If there is an emergency, should the operating system of the Pentagon have to ask permission from a private citizen before responding? Right now the constitution endows one citizen with that right: the commander in chief. The clock runs out tomorrow. 🤺
MORE AFTERMARKET MOVERS
SoundHound, RocketLab , Coreweave and Nore Retail Favorites Report After the Bell 🔊
$SOUN delivered a surprise GAAP profit of $0.10 per share, crushing the projected $0.10 loss as enterprise AI demand drove a 59% revenue surge to $55.1M. The beat was powered by record automotive and retail deployments, sending the stock higher after the bell today.
Rocket Lab Neutron Readiness Under Review 🚀 $RKLB reported record Q4 revenue of $180M, a 36% year-over-year climb that exceeded the $177.9M consensus. Despite hitting a $1.85B record backlog, shares faced initial pressure as investors focused on the operational costs associated with the Neutron rocket’s development timeline.
CoreWeave Scaling the AI Cloud ⚡ $CRWV is under the microscope tonight as its 134% growth trajectory is weighed against a high-debt balance sheet and heavy customer concentration. The stock, up 37% year-to-date, relies on an $8.5B loan to fund the massive infrastructure expansion required for its OpenAI and Meta contracts.
MP Materials Rare Earth Profitability Inflection 🧲 $MP shares are in focus after reporting a $9.4M net income, successfully hitting a profitability inflection point with an EPS of $0.05 vs. the $0.00 estimate. While revenue of $52.7M fell short of forecasts, a 180% jump in gross profit signals a significant turnaround.
Rocket Companies Record Revenue Beats Estimates 🏠 $RKT soared after delivering a massive 127% year-over-year revenue surge to $2.69B, far outpacing the $2.21B market consensus.
PREDICTIONS
Kalshi Cracks Down on Prediction Market Manipulation ⚖️
Prediction market platform Kalshi banned and fined two notable gamblers for insider trading. One, a MrBeast video editor and a another a former political candidate for allegedly betting on outcomes they arleady know would occur.
Kalshi opened 200 investigations over the past year. In the first case, editor Artem Kaptur was fined over $20,000 — roughly 5x his trade size — for wagering $4,000 on YouTube content he helped produce. In the second, former California gubernatorial hopeful Kyle Langford was issued a $2,246 penalty and a 5-year ban for betting $200 on his own race results.
“If people don’t trust, they’re not going to use them,” Robert DeNault, Kalshi’s head of enforcement, told Semaphore. “And if we can’t get them to use them, we don’t get pricing accuracy.”
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The Why: Surveillance systems flagged “near-perfect” success on low-odds markets that were statistically anomalous. The exchange determined that both individuals utilized material non-public information to gain an unfair advantage in markets where they were direct decision-makers or held privileged production access.
While the fines are relatively small compared to Kalshi’s $1 billion Super Bowl volume, they signal a shift toward institutional-grade enforcement to ensure pricing accuracy. It wasn’t winning bets, it was how they won: 100% correct accounts on the capture of Nicolás Maduro, the winner of the nobel peace prize, the super bowl sned traders into a flurry of insider trading accusations.
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TRENDING STOCKS
Market Movers
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$NVAX ( ▼ 9.38% ) Novavax: Surged after reporting a surprise Q4 profit of $0.11 per share, crushing analyst estimates of a $0.49 loss, on revenue of $147.1 million.
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$IONQ ( ▼ 6.14% ) IonQ: Rallied as Q4 revenue skyrocketed 429% to $61.9 million and the company achieved its first quarterly profit of $1.93 per share.
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$PSKY ( ▲ 20.84% ) Psky: Led the market with a gain amid shifting sentiment in the software and index sectors.
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$GDDY ( ▲ 1.11% ) GoDaddy: Rebounded following a period of oversold conditions and positive analyst revisions.
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$SJM ( ▼ 0.04% ) J.M. Smucker: Climbed as defensive consumer staples saw increased rotation during high-growth tech volatility.
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$TEAM ( ▼ 5.41% ) Atlassian: Rose after Nvidia leadership comments eased fears regarding AI cannibalization in the enterprise software space.
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$TTD ( ▼ 0.54% ) The Trade Desk: Dropped on a soft Q1 revenue outlook of $678 million, missing the $688.1 million estimate despite beating Q4 results.
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$ALB ( ▼ 3.39% ) Albemarle: Slipped due to continued lithium price volatility and cautious forward guidance.
WHAT’S ON DECK
Tomorrow’s Top Things 📋
Macro: Core PPI (MoM) (Jan) (8:30 AM ET), CHICAGO PMI (9:45 AM ET), Construction Spending (MoM) (Nov) (10:00 AM ET), GDPNOW (11:30 AM ET), U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count (1:00 PM ET). 📊
Pre-Market Earnings: $GSAT, $GOGO, $FRO, $FLGT, $ABR, $AMRX, $AMR,☀️
After-Market Earnings: $CRIS, $UUUU, $HE, $TPTW. 🌙
P.S. You can listen to all of these earnings calls on Stocktwits.
Links That Don’t Suck 🌐
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😨 Private Credit’s Great Divide: Imminent Crisis or ‘No Big Deal’
🏠️ Mortgage rates fall below 6% for first time in over 3 years
🚤 Russia says Cuba situation is escalating after deadly incident with U.S.-tagged speedboat
📺️ House Oversight, Hillary Clinton agree on deposition terms
👀 U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiators meet for 3 hours with Trump decision looming
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