Wall Street Finds Its Risk Button ⚡

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Good evening, and happy Tuesday. The tape closed higher. The U.S.-Iran conflict is the market’s main source of risk, but investors are still leaning risk-on, buying chips ahead of a heavy tech earnings week, while higher crude keeps inflation risk in view.

The next calendar focus is earnings: $T and $PM report Wednesday morning, $TSLA and $GOOGL Wednesday after the bell.

Stocktwits traders skipped the blue-chip leaders and chased action elsewhere. Supermicro, Oklo, Iovance, and Ondas dominated the stream, with Iovance drawing extremely high message volume. That split kept the session firmly risk-on, but far from megacap-only.

Today’s Briefing Powered by Stocktwits MCP:

• Market News: Chips outran rising oil, Treasury yields, and Iran risk

• Stock News: Supermicro’s margin shock and SpaceX’s post-IPO pressure

• Crypto News: CLARITY Act hopes lifted Coinbase and its crypto peers

• Pops and Drops & More

• Can chip strength keep outrunning oil and rising yields?

AFTER THE BELL
The Good Kind Of Margin 📞

Supermicro, the AI server and liquid-cooled rack builder, gave investors an early look at fiscal Q4 on Tuesday. Soft revenue got body-slammed by a massive margin surprise, sending shares ripping after hours.

The RIP: $SMCI jumped +17% after hours after closing +7%. Revenue landed near the low end of its $11B to $12.5B guidance, while gross margin hit 15% to 17% versus an 8.2% to 8.4% forecast. New orders topped $60B, and backlog reached a record.

The margin forecast saved the update. Revenue landed near the low end of guidance, but 15% to 17% gross margin made $60B in new orders look less like low-profit volume. The rally also clawed back losses from June 29, when Taiwanese authorities questioned four employees and detained two in an AI-server export probe.

The MCP Read: The pre-release Stocktwits reading was 68% bearish before the reversal.

The $SMCI room was 68% bearish before the margin bomb, track the reversal ->

Powered by Stocktwits MCP.

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STOCKS
SpaceX Stops The Bleeding 🩹

SpaceX, Elon Musk’s rocket-and-satellite operator, finally stopped falling Tuesday as traders bought the stock ahead of its first public earnings report. Musk marked the occasion by warning short-selling firms that their survival odds were low. Subtle.

The RIP: $SPCX rose +3% to $123.54, snapping a seven-session, -21% slide. Shares remain 8% below their $135 IPO price and 45% below their $225.64 high. Roughly 17% of the float is sold short, while up to 911.5M locked shares become eligible Aug. 6. 🧨 

The bounce does not fix the supply problem coming behind earnings. Employees and early investors could unload more shares than the 555.6M sold in the IPO once SpaceX reports Aug. 4. According to lock up details, holders can sell 10% more if the stock holds 30% higher than the IPO price for half of the ten trading days before the report. Thursday’s Starship test could move the stock first, but earnings and the Aug. 6 unlock will decide whether Tuesday’s floor holds.

The $SPCX room is 65% bearish before the share unlock, follow the fallout ->

One Yard From Clarity 🏈

Coinbase, the largest U.S. crypto exchange, led a sectorwide rally Tuesday after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the CLARITY Act was on the Senate’s “one-yard line.” The White House also reportedly accepted ethics language covering President Donald Trump’s crypto interests, breaking the bill’s biggest political logjam.

The RIP: $COIN surged +10%, $CRCL jumped +9%, $MSTR gained +4%, and $BMNR added +4%. XRP climbed +3% to $1.15, while Bitcoin rose +2% to $66,394.

The bill would establish federal rules for crypto exchanges and divide oversight between the SEC and CFTC. Coinbase is the cleanest beneficiary because clearer rules could attract institutional trading, while Strategy and Bitmine remain leveraged bets on token prices.

Circle is the tricky leg. CLARITY could expand stablecoin adoption, but Mizuho warned that it could also invite more institutional competitors and commoditize USDC. The bill still needs 60 Senate votes, and Democrats have not signed onto the White House’s ethics compromise, so Bessent’s one-yard line could still turn into fourth-and-long. The MCP Read: Coinbase closed 64% bullish, while Circle’s room leaned 52% bearish.

The $COIN room is 64% bullish on CLARITY, see what bulls expect ->

TRENDING ON STOCKTWITS
Pops & Drops

$SNDK ( ▲ 0.75% )  Sandisk: soared +14% after UBS called the memory selloff a buying opportunity

$ONDS ( ▲ 10.84% )  Ondas ⚡: jumped +14% after Australian Defence placed a $6.9M counter-drone order

$WDC ( ▲ 2.36% )  Western Digital: surged +13% after UBS backed the beaten-down memory trade

$MU ( ▲ 0.34% )  Micron: ripped +12% after UBS flagged attractive memory-sector valuations

$OKLO ( ▲ 1.61% )  Oklo ⚡: jumped +12% after joining Trump’s program to fast-track AI reactors

$STX ( ▲ 2.89% )  Seagate: surged +11% after UBS endorsed memory stocks following their rout

$DHR ( ▼ 1.52% )  Danaher: tumbled -11% after bioprocessing revenue missed despite an earnings beat

$MSCI ( ▲ 1.01% )  MSCI: fell -10% after higher expenses overshadowed modest earnings and revenue beats

ST EDITOR’S PICKS
Links That Don’t Suck 🌐

📈 Greer hints new Trump tariffs coming on dozens of countries: ‘Expect action soon’

😨 Saudi crude tankers turn back as Houthis open new front in US-Iran war

🏠️ Jamie Dimon says markets underestimate risks and he wouldn’t buy stocks or Treasurys at current prices

👀 An OpenAI exec’s comments on China’s Kimi K3 kicked off a big US tech debate

💊 Novo Nordisk sues Eli Lilly, alleging misleading GLP-1 advertising

WHAT’S ON DECK
Tomorrow’s Top Things 📋

Pre-Market Earnings: $T AT&T, Inc., $PM Philip Morris International Inc, $GEV GE Vernova Inc., $OTLY Oatly Group AB – ADR, $IRDM Iridium Communications Inc, +4 more. ☀️
After-Market Earnings: IBM International Business Machines Corp., $QS QuantumScape Corp – Ordinary Shares – Class A, $NOW ServiceNow Inc, +14 more. 🌙

Tesla’s Cash-Burn Test 🔥

Tesla reports after Wednesday’s close with record deliveries already banked. The question is how much cash its robotaxi and robotics expansion consumed.

The RIP: $TSLA gained +3% Tuesday. Consensus calls for $27.58B revenue, $0.55 adjusted EPS, 19.5% gross margin, and -$3.25B free cash flow after roughly 480K deliveries. The MCP Read: Tesla’s room is 72% bullish heading into earnings.

The $TSLA room is 72% bullish on earnings, track the reaction ->

Google’s $190B Gut Check 🧮

Alphabet reports Wednesday with Search still growing and Google Cloud coming off its fastest quarter. The pressure sits on its enormous AI spending plan.

The RIP: $GOOGL fell -1% Tuesday. Wall Street expects $116.93B revenue, $2.86 EPS, 64% Cloud growth, and 14% advertising growth. Alphabet expects $180B to $190B of 2026 capital spending.

The $GOOGL room is 80% bullish before earnings, see what traders priced in ->

P.S. You can listen to all of these earnings calls on Stocktwits.

Get In Touch 📬

Want to see some change? Email me, Kevin Travers with feedback, and follow me on Stocktwits. Refer a friend for this quarter’s edition of The RIP Forecast 😎 

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