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OVERVIEW

What To Expect In April And Q2 🌷

Before we dive in, here’s today’s crypto market heatmap:

Source: Santiment

And here’s a look at crypto’s total market and altcoin market cap charts:

NEWS IN THREE SENTENCES
Crypto News 📰

💰 Saylor Confirms He Hasn’t Found Anything Better to Buy Yet

Michael Saylor’s Strategy ($MSTR ( ▼ 0.39% )) casually scooped up another 22,048 $BTC.X ( ▲ 0.2% ) ($1.92 billion) at an average price of $86,969 each. After raising funds by selling shares faster than your buddy dumped his pump.fail coins, Strategy now holds 528,185 BTC, securing its spot as crypto’s top hoarder. CoinTrackerDaily.

🛒 MARA Holdings Copies Saylor’s Homework, Announces $2B Stock Offering for BTC Shopping Spree

$MARA ( ▼ 7.78% ) Holdings is following Strategy’s blueprint, launching a fresh $2 billion stock offering to ramp up Bitcoin purchases. Institutional desks are silently accumulating Bitcoin through Coinbase ($COIN ( ▼ 0.98% )) Prime’s OTC channels, indicating MARA isn’t the only corporate whale getting greedy. With 46,376 BTC already in its vault, MARA clearly subscribes to the “buy, hold, and refuse to shut up about it” school of crypto investing. AMBcrypto.

🏦 Circle Gears Up for IPO With JPMorgan and Citi

Circle, the company behind stablecoin $USDC.X ( ▲ 0.01% ) , hopes for a $4-5 billion IPO valuation, partnering with Wall Street bigwigs JPMorgan ($JPM ( ▲ 1.01% )) and Citi ($C ( ▲ 0.94% )). After a failed SPAC attempt and under a friendlier Trump administration promising to make the US crypto-friendly, Circle’s IPO dreams may finally come true. Gemini, Kraken, and others are also eyeing IPOs. CryptoBriefing.

💸 Coinbase CEO Wants US Stablecoin Laws to Allow Interest Earnings

Brian Armstrong suggested US stablecoin regulations should allow users to earn interest—because earning 0.01% in your savings account isn’t humiliating enough for banks. Armstrong’s proposal could shake up banking by blending traditional finance with crypto benefits. While USDC remains stable at exactly $1, the idea of interest-bearing stablecoins could finally democratize financial access. coincu.

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ANALYSIS
BTC 10-Year Quarter-by-Quarter Stats ➗ 

Historically, April tends to play nice with $BTC.X ( ▲ 0.2% ) , averaging a solid +9.60% overall. 👍️ 

It goes green more often than red, but when it dips, expect moderate losses around -9.37%—so no major panic attacks, usually. But if the first three months of 2025 are any indication of what to expect, a ‘usual’ April might not be the kind of April we’re going to get.

Q2 overall is Bitcoin’s second-best quarter, often bullish with an average gain of +20.58%, but brace yourself for occasional nasty downturns (-31.11% average when red). April sets the tone—mostly friendly, sometimes moody, but typically worth your attention.

🥇 Q4 (October-December)

• Green Quarters: 7 | Red Quarters: 3

• Average Gain: 69.39%

• Average Loss: -24.96%

🥈 Q2 (April-June)

• Green Quarters: 6 | Red Quarters: 4

• Average Gain: 55.05%

• Average Loss: -31.11%

🥉 Q1 (January-March)

• Green Quarters: 6 | Red Quarters: 5

• Average Gain: 38.51%

• Average Loss: -18.08%

📉 Q3 (July-September)

• Green Quarters: 5 | Red Quarters: 5

• Average Gain: 24.93%

• Average Loss: -10.93%

ANALYSIS
BTC 10-Year Month-by Month Stats 🔢 

If you’re trying to predict Bitcoin’s next move, historical data might be your best shot. Here’s how every month ranks in Bitcoin’s wild ride from 2015 to 2025, highlighting monthly averages, volatility, and some eyebrow-raising stats.

📈 Best Months When Green

1. May (+34.01%): Bitcoin loves spring, especially May. When it’s good, it’s real good, averaging a 34% pop.

2. November (+28.45%): Turkey isn’t the only thing being gobbled up—Bitcoin tends to feast in November.

3. December (+28.36%): Bitcoin often brings holiday cheer (and big gains).

4. August (+26.80%): Summer months aren’t typically known for performance, but August defies this expectation when green.

5. October (+24.24%): No tricks, just treats here.

6. April (+22.24%): Spring showers bring Bitcoin flowers.

7. February (+17.93%): Short month, solid returns.

8. June (+17.53%): Mid-year checkup can occasionally deliver impressive returns.

9. March (+16.54%): End of Q1 tends to show moderate optimism.

10. January (+15.76%): New year, cautious optimism.

11. July (+15.29%): Heatwave? More like lukewarm gains.

12. September (+5.03%): If green, barely noticeable.

📉 Least Painful Months When Red

1. October (-4.06%): Least likely to cause a financial heart attack when things go south.

2. July (-6.02%): Mildly disappointing but manageable.

3. September (-7.47%): Often red, but rarely disastrous.

4. December (-7.63%): Santa’s naughty list still gentle on your wallet.

5. April (-9.37%): Showers occasionally wash away minor gains.

6. August (-10.67%): Summer sadness is relatively tame.

7. March (-12.75%): End-of-quarter blues hit moderately.

8. February (-13.12%): Short month, medium-sized pain.

9. June (-13.71%): Occasionally harsh midsummer corrections.

10. May (-15.85%): When bad, it stings a bit more.

11. January (-19.05%): Rough start to the year possible.

12. November (-19.39%): Thanksgiving sometimes comes with indigestion.

📊 Overall Monthly Average Performance

1. October (+21.41%): Bitcoin’s clear MVP month—almost always bullish. Almost.

2. February (+12.29%): Surprisingly consistent, good overall performance.

3. December (+10.36%): Mostly positive but with some volatility.

4. April (+9.60%): Solid month, spring optimism intact.

5. November (+9.31%): Typically strong but watch out for rare turkeys.

6. May (+9.08%): High highs balance out the occasional lows.

7. July (+8.90%): Summer steady, nothing flashy.

8. June (+1.91%): Slight edge, cautious optimism.

9. August (+0.57%): Neutral at best, flip a coin.

10. March (+0.57%): Neutral month—little gain, little loss.

11. January (-0.06%): Essentially flat, a coin toss.

12. September (-2.47%): Consistently Bitcoin’s worst month—buyer beware.

🤔 Fun Facts and Highlights

• October is Bitcoin’s most consistently positive month with 9 out of 10 green closings and the smallest average loss when it does dip.

• May boasts the highest average gain when Bitcoin finishes in the green, making it an all-or-nothing month.

• September is Bitcoin’s “cursed” month, averaging negative performance overall.

• Surprisingly, February has the second-best overall performance despite being the shortest month.

• The biggest swings often come towards the end of the year.

Bottom line? Historical averages don’t lie—October is your friend, September might betray you, and May may be a gamble some think worth taking. Pun intended.

ON-CHAIN ANALYSIS
Burnt Bag Briefing 🔥 

Want to know whether the bulls or bears are feeling the most pain today? Well, this is the place to look. 👀

24-Hour Liquidation Heat Map – Source: coinglass – Click to enlarge.

In the past 24 hours, 106,738 traders were liquidated, with total liquidations reaching nearly $318.22 million.

The largest single liquidation occurred on Binance, an ETCUSD pair valued at $13.31 million.

Longs lost $202.30 million, while shorts were hit for $115.92 million. 🤕

NEWS IN THREE SENTENCES
AI & Privacy News 🕵️ 

🛠️ Theta EdgeCloud Launches AI Developer Tools, Skeptics Unsure What ‘Agentic’ Means

Theta ($THETA.X ( ▼ 1.67% )) EdgeCloud deployed “Agentic Tools” to help developers easily build AI apps on Theta blockchain without sacrificing sleep or sanity. Tools like custom APIs, Text-to-SQL, and web search integration make building powerful AI chatbots seamless, leaving traditional devs stuck with outdated APIs and Google Stack Overflow tabs open. Theta.

NEWS IN THREE SENTENCES
DeFi, DEX, & Lending Protocol News 🏦

🔬 DeSci Wants to Decentralize Science

Decentralized Science (DeSci) aims to disrupt traditional research by replacing slow, institutional bureaucracy with blockchain-driven transparency, crowdfunding, and open data. Researchers worldwide can collaborate without universities gatekeeping funding and credit. Sure, DeSci still has scalability issues, but compared to legacy science gatekeepers who treat innovation like dial-up internet, it’s miles ahead. PancakeSwap.

🤖 DeFAI Combines AI & DeFi, Critics Confused by Acronyms Alone

DeFAI (DeFi + AI) aims to simplify blockchain finance so even your grandma could yield farm without calling tech support—or worse, calling you. By automating trading and managing risk through AI-driven agents, DeFAI removes DeFi’s complexity, but skeptics argue it’s adding yet another acronym to crypto’s confusing lexicon. Oasis.

⛓️ Mina Foundation’s New Interim CEO Promises Decentralization

Mina ($MINA.X ( ▼ 3.01% )) Foundation’s new interim CEO, Josh Cincinnati, promises more decentralization and a transparent treasury—goals the community has heard before. Cincinnati’s experience with Cosmos might help Mina pivot successfully; community members cautiously optimistic that he’ll keep communication open rather than ghost them like their last crypto crush. Mina Protocol.

LINKS
Links That Don’t Suck 🔗

📉 Tom Lee Says ‘We’ve got the right pieces for a bottom.”

🧵 CoreWeave’s IPO: The Prime AI bubble indicator

👍️ Bithumb records $110 million net profits in 2024: report

😱  Crypto Bloodbath vs. Gold Boom: What Q1’s 45% ETH Crash Reveals

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