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OVERVIEW

When The Bulls Might Be Bulls Again 🐂 

Source: Giphy

Before we dive in, here’s today’s crypto market heatmap:

Source: Santiment

So. About yesterday’s heatmap: I have no friggin idea why the ticker named LUIGI was there.

And here’s a look at crypto’s total market and altcoin market cap charts:

Source: TradingView

NEWS IN THREE SENTENCES
Crypto News 📰

🤖 Kava AI Decentralized ChatGPT

They’ve mashed up ChatGPT-level smarts with on-chain data to help you dissect and execute crypto trades in one chat window. It’s all open source, no creepy surveillance, and fully decentralized—so not your typical AI overlord. And yes, it claims to be as clever as the big corporate models, minus the snooping. KAVA.

🏛️ SEC and CFTC Team Up On Crypto

They want to revive a dormant advisory committee to sort out who’s boss over digital assets. Less “rein them in” and more “everyone play nice” now that Gensler’s iron-fist routine flopped. Better late than never. CryptoSlate.

😱 $15M Crypto Ransom Terror in Chicago

Masked kidnappers snatched a family and forced them to cough up millions in Bitcoin and Ethereum. The victims got free after five days, but only one suspect is nabbed; the others bounced overseas. ecoinimist.

💸 Robinhood’s Crypto Payday

They pocketed $672M in crypto revenue, a 700% leap that leaves their old earnings in the dust. Bitcoin’s bounce and new token listings sure help the scoreboard. Let’s see how long the good times roll. y%wire.

😡 Tether Boss Rips JPMorgan

Paolo Ardoino says JPM is just bitter they don’t hold enough Bitcoin. JPM expects Tether to liquidate billions in BTC under new stablecoin rules—Tether says “lol, sure.” U.Today.

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TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Ethereum At A Make Or Break Level 😰 

We’re halfway through February and if Ethereum’s chart were a movie, then it’s Ethereum’s monthly chart is in full Helm’s Deep mode—the walls are cracked, the defenses are shaky, and the Uruks are about to eat some man flesh. 🍖 

Price is barely holding above the Kijun-Sen and now ETH is in the part of the battle of Helm’s Deep where the suicide bomber Uruk is about to make Senkou Span B go big boom boom.

Either the bulls pull off a last-minute rally (cue Gandalf and the Riders of Rohan), or the Uruk-hai break through and send ETH into freefall. 😨 

ETHUSD Monthly Chart – Click to enlarge.

• Price hovers at 2,632, just above the Kijun-Sen (2,629). That’s uncomfortably close to a “welcome to free fall” scenario.

• Tenkan-Sen up at 3,112 looks more like a distant memory than a realistic target. A monthly close anywhere near that number would be a small miracle.

• The top of the Cloud’s (Senkou Span B at 2,474) forms the last major line of defense.

• Composite Index got slapped down by the slow average and slipped under the fast average. That’s the chart’s way of saying, “Don’t get your hopes up.”

• Detrended Price Oscillator lost zero as support. Falling below neutral rarely screams strength.

• Sixteen days remain in February. Plenty of time to bounce — or to unravel spectacularly if support gives way.

Why It Looks So Bad

• A close beneath the Cloud would paint Ethereum as about as bullish as a limp balloon.

• Kijun-Sen’s proximity could lead to a quick flush if price decides to take a final tumble.

• Momentum indicators are waving red flags, not gently suggesting a minor pullback.

• If the bulls fail to rescue Ethereum over the next couple weeks, then Gandalf and Eomer won’t be on time and the Uruks will wipe out everyone in Helm’s Deep and then the story sucks.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
When The Bulls Might Be Bulls Again 🕰️ 

Got some emails and questions about some charts that show when things would start look more bullish. So here goes:

Cosmos

The weekly chart shows some massive gaps between the Tenkan-Sen and the candlestick bodies. If you’ve been a long-time reader of the Litepaper, then you know what that means. 🧠 

ATOMUSD Weekly Chart – Click to enlarge.

If you’re not a long-time reader or you need a refresher, those gaps basically mean this: things are out of balance big time. The body of the candlesticks and the Tenkan-Sen like to be close to eachother and are super sad when they’re apart.

Next up, the daily.

ATOMUSD Daily Chart – Click to enlarge.

No big explanation needed here. A daily close above the Kijun-Sen ($5.22) after a good chunk of time below it and after a week of congestion and consolidation, things could start to turn around. 🔝 

Polkadot

DOTUSD Weekly Chart – Click to enlarge.

What I wrote about ATOM’s weekly chart could essentially be copy pasted here: big gaps between the Tenkan-Sen and candlestick bodies.

DOTUSD Daily Chart – Click to enlarge.

Same thing as ATOM’s daily chart: bulls are looking for a close above the Kijun-Sen. ✅ 

Sui

SUIUSD Daily Chart – Click to enlarge.

Ichimoku traders and analysts likely see two bullish opportunities developing on Sui’s daily chart, an aggressive entry and a more conservative entry.

The aggressive entry is just like ATOM’s and DOT’s daily charts with a close above the Kijun-Sen ($3.70). The conservative entry is when the daily closes above the Cloud and the Chikou Span is above the candlestick bodies- fulfilling an Ideal Bullish Ichimoku Breakout.

Bulls would need to close Sui at or above $4.67 for that to happen. 🎯 

NEWS IN THREE SENTENCES
Metaverse, NFT, & Gaming News 🎮️

✈️ NFA & COTI Tag-Team

NFA’s turning Telegram into a gamified crypto trading zone powered by AI, while COTI brings in the privacy mojo to keep frontrunners at bay. Their plan: let you copy-trade the whales without letting outside lurkers piggyback for free. In short, trade your picks, not your secrets. COTI.

🎮 Terraforming Web3: Building Games In A Post-Web2 World

Starknet is bringing top minds together to reimagine gaming, where players can own assets and token economies don’t implode every Tuesday. They’ll cover everything from tokenomics to forging Web3 partnerships (and maybe even AI agents). Starknet.

📢 Shape the Future of EOS

EOS wants your two cents on everything from NFT integration to bridging with EVM and beyond. They’re doling out new features in Unicove to streamline DeFi, bridging, and maybe even a direct fiat offramp—if the community screams loud enough. So if you’ve got strong opinions about next-gen token creation or an on-chain forum, now’s your shot to push for it. EOS.

NEWS IN THREE SENTENCES
DeFi, DEX, and Lending Protocol News 🏦

⛓️ How Bancor Shook DeFi

Bancor introduced the very first Constant Product AMM in 2016, basically rewriting the onchain liquidity playbook. Its OG liquidity pool with BNT and GNO was the spark that lit DeFi’s fuse. Turns out letting math, not humans, set token prices was a pretty big deal. Bancor.

🤖 MultiversX AI MegaWave Hackathon

They’re cranking up the AI hype with on-chain agents and DeFAI protocols that pretty much run themselves. You can whip up an autonomous trading bot or an AI-driven dev tool that codes your contracts while you nap. There’s up to $150k in prizes, so learn to code quick? MultiversX.

🔗 IOTA EVM RPC Now Live

Ankr just unlocked a gateway to the IOTA EVM chain so you can build dApps without messing with your own nodes. Think ultra-fast bridging, flexible token magic, and no deep-diving into arcane DevOps. It’s all about letting you focus on your DeFi or identity project, while Ankr handles the backend sorcery. Ankr.

LINKS
Links That Don’t Suck 🔗

🐕️ CZ teases dog memecoin details, igniting hype as PancakeSwap surpasses Uniswap in DEX volume

🖼️ OpenSea releases OS2 NFT platform in beta, teases SEA token airdrop

🦘 ETH jumps on Cboe and 21Shares’ Ether ETF staking filing

🪙 New York’s Bitcoin bill aims to study crypto’s effects

🪔 Apple’s new robot looks like the Pixar lamp

🎮️ Former Activision CEO on former EA CEO: ‘He was the worst CEO in video games’

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Author Disclosure: The author of this newsletter holds positions in ADA, LTC, IMX, WMT, COPI, MIN, AGIX, ALGO, DOGE, ZEC, AVAX, XLM, XTZ, and NEAR. 📋