CLOSING BELL
Will Musk Or Ellison Buy TikTok

The market hit all-time highs Monday, and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at record levels after news that China and the U.S. were reaching agreements on TikTok and trade this week. No one can wait for the biggest FOMC decision this year, on Wednesday, with bets pointing to at least a 25 basis point rate cut, and an updated projection that will show the future breakdown on Fed votes for policy and inflation.

Treasury Sec Scott Bessent said the TikTok deal was reaching a conclusion, but it was a private matter he could not discuss. In April, the Trump administration proposed a controlling stake buyout of the giant through a group of investors and financiers, including Oracle’s Larry Ellison and Elon Musk of Tesla, which climbed further on the news. 👀

Today’s news: CoreWeave made deals with Nvidia, Polymarket is coming to Stocktwits, and more.  📰

5 of 11 sectors closed green, with communications $XLC ( ▲ 1.41% ) leading and staples $XLP ( ▼ 1.15% ) lagging.

 $SPY ( ▲ 0.53% )  $QQQ ( ▲ 0.86% )  $IWM ( ▲ 0.42% )  $DIA ( ▲ 0.16% ) 

STOCKS
CoreWeave Weaves Its Way Into the Nvidia Cash Pile 🐏 

CoreWeave $CRWV ( ▲ 7.6% ) shares climbed Monday after it took part in the story of the times: a cloud service provider made a deal to work with a hardware company.

In this case, the company revealed a two-year-old deal that has Nvidia buying up $6.3B in cloud computing, under obligation for any unsold capacity at CoreWeave for the next seven years.

CoreWeave fronts the costs to build and equip data centers, and investors worried about debt were happy to hear they were guaranteed to have a buyer for some of that capacity.

“We’re not buying infrastructure and hoping that people come and use it, ” Brannin McBee, co-founder and chief development officer, told Barron’s.

The news comes as Nvidia is up on the trade deal chopping block, under investigation from Chinese authorities for monopolistic control of chip production, at the same time that representatives from China and the U.S. are meeting to further define trade deals.

IN PARTNERSHIP WITH
 🔮 Stocktwits x Polymarket: Real-Time Predictions Are Here

We’ve officially teamed up with Polymarket, the world’s largest prediction market platform, to bring crowd-priced probabilities straight into your Stocktwits feed.

Polymarket is now Stocktwits’ official prediction markets partner. You’ll see live odds on rate cuts, elections, and earnings calls right inside your daily scroll.

Why it matters for retail:
Earnings are hard. A company can beat EPS, and the stock still falls because of guidance, tone, or outside news. 

Polymarket’s new earnings markets make it simple with a yes/no question like “Will TSLA beat EPS of ___?” 

You’re trading the event itself, not the reaction. That helps you plan a trade, hedge risk, or wait with more confidence.

What it means

• See live odds for the biggest events in the world, directly in your feed.

• Trade the event, not the spin. Simple yes/no markets like “Will TSLA beat EPS?” remove guesswork about guidance and allow you to focus on a single data point. 

Use the crowd signal. Watch probabilities move as news breaks and use that signal to size a position, hedge, or stay patient.

*3rd Party Ad. Not an offer or recommendation by Stocktwits. See disclosure here. 

MACRO NEWS
Trump Thinks Four Reports A Year Is Too Many

Trump proposes six-month earnings reports, compared to the current SEC requirement of quarterly reports. The idea is not a new one, and Kobassi’s letter on Twitter pointed out that the announcement on Truth Social was nearly the same as one from 2018.

The problem with quarterly reports, critics claim, is that they are too short-term looking. Advocates hope that longer reporting intervals will help firms manage the compliance costs of reporting and deter growth-minded shareholders from demanding rapid growth in just three months.

Irene Tunkel, Chief U.S. Equity Strategist, BCA Research, told Yahoo Finance she loves Q reports like the rest of the industry, but quarterly reporting has become more about “gaming expectations than providing insight.”

TD Cowen analyst Jaret Seiberg warned that less information only means more violent reactions when reports come out. He still assigns 60% odds that the SEC will actually move on this idea.

It’s not a Trump original- stocks in Hong Kong, the UK, and the EU all report on a required semi-annual basis. Art Hogan, Chief Market Strategist at B. Riley Wealth Management, told CNBC that the ‘let’s do what the rest of the world is doing’ argument sounds great, but how many international firms are “trillion-dollar market caps with 60% revenue growth a year?” 😆 

POPS & DROPS
Top Stocktwits News Stories 🗞️ 

• Whirlpool accuses rivals of tariff evasion via customs undervaluation.

• Opendoor rallies 467% YTD as new CEO takes helm.

• Gold stalls at $3,641 ahead of Fed rate decision.

• Alaska Air guides Q3 EPS lower, stock dips 7%.

• PayPal launches crypto P2P payments, stock up 0.8%.

• Alphabet hits $3T market cap as stock jumps 4.5%.

• ASML jumps 6% after Arete upgrades to Buy.

• Elon Musk buys $1B in Tesla shares, stock jumps 6%.

• Oklo hits $91.07 intraday high, up 10%.

• Helius Medical stock surges 169% after $500M Solana deal.

Don’t miss a story! Follow @StocktwitsNews for a live feed in real time. ✍️ 

STOCKS
🧠 Ed Yardeni’s Open Letter to Scott Bessent: The Fed, Fiscal Fog & Stablecoin Surge

Veteran economist Ed Yardeni wrote a response Monday to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s critique of the Fed, published in WSJ earlier this month. Yardeni blended praise with pushback and finished with a warning shot across the bow: if the Fed screws this period up, the roaring twenties may end in the great depression (again).

📉 Mission Creep at the Fed Yardeni agrees: the Fed’s post-crisis liquidity binge blurred its original mandate. By stepping into public debt management, traditionally Treasury turf, the Fed has risked becoming a fiscal enabler rather than a monetary steward. Ultra-low rates financed ballooning deficits, and quantitative easing flattened market signals, muting bond market discipline.

📜 Mandates Misaligned: The Fed’s dual mandate, ‘maximum employment and price stability,’ overshadows its original 1913 mission: financial stability. Yardeni argues this should be reinstated as the Fed’s top priority. The Humphrey-Hawkins Act added long-term interest rate moderation, but that’s rarely emphasized.

💸 The Fed Put & Wealth Inequality Yardeni pushes back on Bessent’s implied endorsement of another Fed Put. While past interventions propped up markets, they also fueled wealth inequality and excessive risk-taking. A rate cut now could trigger a melt-up, followed by a brutal correction, echoes of the 1920s crash.

📈 He reminded the class that Bond Vigilantes Are Watching. Despite recent Fed rate cuts, long-end yields are rising, proof that markets aren’t buying the stimulus. Yardeni warns that further easing could provoke a bond revolt. He questions whether Bessent would resort to Yellen-style Treasury bill issuance to contain the fallout. In essence, solving the problem with money printing.

🪙 Stablecoins & the Genius Act Yardeni flags a new frontier. With the Genius Act now law, he acknowledges their potential to expand dollar usage and Treasury demand. But he cautions: if stablecoins balloon and are backed by T-bills, the Fed could lose control over the money supply, risking a prolonged inflation rebound.

🧩 Roar Responsibly Yardeni wants the Roaring 2020s to roar responsibly. That means respecting the Fed’s original mandate, avoiding asset bubbles, and keeping fiscal policy from drifting into fantasy. The stablecoin boom may be promising, but only if it doesn’t torch the Fed’s last grip on monetary control.

Full letter on LinkedIn.

WHAT’S ON DECK
Tomorrow’s Top Things 📋

Economic data: Import and Export Price Index (8:30 AM), Industrial Production (9:15 AM), Business Inventories (10:00 AM), 20-Year Bond Auction (1:00 PM) 📊
Pre-Market Earnings: The Brand House ($TBHC). 🛏️
After-Market Earnings: Flux Power Holdings ($FLUX). 🌕️ 

P.S. You can listen to these earnings calls on Stocktwits.

Links That Don’t Suck 🌐

📈 Uncover the next big winners early with the MarketSurge Blue Dot––try 6 weeks now for only $49.95 *

🏠️ Wall Street Raises Alarm on Trump Ending Quarterly Earnings

😁 SEC “prioritizing” Trump bid to change public company reporting rules

🤖 Bessent: TikTok deal ‘framework’ reached with China, Trump and Xi will finalize it Friday

🎩  “Polymarket transforms uncertainty into clarity, big questions like earnings into tradable outcomes”

😨 Senate set to confirm Trump adviser Miran as Fed governor in time for crucial rate decision

*3rd Party Ad. Not an offer or recommendation by Stocktwits. See disclosure here. 

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