As many of you know, I trade my own capital for a living after a 20 year career managing money on Wall Street for some very large, well-known hedge funds. I am tired of managing money for others and dealing with risk managers and investors. I’d...

Core PCE comes in at 0.249% m om, basically spot in line with expectations which isn’t surprising given most economists have nearly all the data ahead of time with the CPI and PPI releases. This doesn’t really change much about the trajectory...

View the 1 images of this gallery on the original article Source: Bloomberg Trigger Warning: Chart of the Day: Citi Surprise Index vs SFR9 (proxy for federal funds rate 9 months forward) My hypothesis is that the US economy has begun to slow due to the...

View the 1 images of this gallery on the original article Source: Bloomberg Chart of the Day – Grams of Gold in 1 barrel of Oil. We have now pushed lower through the 1g of gold for 1bbl of oil level, which is pretty rare by historical standards....

When I think about the desire of the US Government to place sanctions on foreign holders of USTs and potentially expropriate their holdings when they become “enemies” of the US, all while the Treasury is trying to finance deficits at 6%+ of...

Great quote from Paul Volcker: “We give government the right to print money because we trust elected officials not to abuse that right, not to debase that currency by inflating. Foreigners hold our dollars because they trust our pledge that...

*YELLEN: CONCERNED ABOUT ‘WHERE WE’RE GOING’ WITH US DEFICIT *YELLEN: US NEEDS ‘SIGNIFICANT STEPS’ TO REDUCE BUDGET DEFICIT Ya think Janet? Cmon. Enough with the gaslighting. pic.twitter.com/tFt0G1KSpO — Craig Shapiro...

https://www.newsweek.com/china-may-preparing-deploy-economic-nuclear-option-1894985 “I don’t believe China is preparing to devalue its currency against the dollar,” Craig Shapiro, macro adviser to LaDucTrading, told Newsweek. “But I...

I put together a post two months ago which walked through my thoughts about how we could see a top in equity markets. You can see it here from March 13th, 2024: How Does the SPX/NQ Bubble Pop? I would say many of the concepts I thought about two months...

The pathway to a risk asset top goes through the introduction of dual sided risk to the Fed’s next policy decision. Removing the asymmetric bias where the bar for the Fed to cut rates is much lower than the bar to hike rates will help re-introduce...