Oil Climbs, CoreWeave Broke the Curse

Good evening, and happy Tuesday. The market closed mixed. Energy was the top climbing sector, because damn if you don’t know it at this point but the U.S. is still at war with Iran, and Tehran said negotiations are not going well.

In macro, the market is looking ahead to the CPI report Wednesday morning, and economists expect the numbers to show prices grew about 0.2% in July, at 3.4% annually. Boring inflation numbers would really help the Fed choose to do nothing later this month during their rate decision meeting. Compared to raising rates, that’s a good thing, most would argue.

Stocktwits traders ignored the megacap weakness and crowded into CoreWeave and Supermicro after earnings. U.S. Antimony ran the loudest stream despite its 15% drop, leaving retail focused on volatile single-stock stories instead of the broader market.

Today’s Briefing: Powered by Stocktwits Community API.

• After the Bell: CoreWeave breaks its five-report earnings curse as revenue and backlog keep the AI spending machine moving.

• Stocks: CAVA’s traffic beat and Supermicro’s margin rebound send both shares higher.

• Preview News: Nebius reports before Wednesday’s open with capacity, spending, and Michael Burry’s short in focus.

• What’s Trending Now on Stocktwits

AFTER THE BELL
CoreWeave Breaks the Curse 🔓

CoreWeave, the AI cloud infrastructure provider, reported Tuesday night and finally delivered an earnings reaction investors could celebrate. Shares had fallen after each of the company’s first five reports as a public company, but this print sent them sharply higher.

The RIP: $CRWV ( ▲ 2.42% ) +13.6% after hours; adjusted loss $1.03/share vs. $1.20 expected; revenue $2.58B vs. $2.56B expected; backlog $104B.

CoreWeave added more than $25B in customer commitments after the quarter ended, giving holders enough growth to overlook a $626M net loss and roughly $35B in debt. According to Barron’s, this cloud company runs on one thing: depreciation. Depreciation and interest payments make up 79% of the firm’s revenue, up 146% from last year. It is on track to spend up to $35B in capex this year, an insane number for a firm that pulled in less than $3B in revenue.

The climb after the close surprises me, after the last couple of earnings responses were so red. I met with Jonathan Morgan, crypto writer and technical analysis extraordinaire, to talk TA this afternoon., As you may have noticed, it is not my forte. I am a news writer, and though I can stomach charts, trend lines, and geometry, it has never been the first thing I look at evaluating the stock market.

With the way AI writing is going, I fully expect to be looking for a new vocation months ago, and am living on borrowed time, so why not learn to have an opinion on charting? 🤪 

In today’s lesson, Jon and I looked at Coreweave, a thin graph after the firm only went public last March. Showing me the ropes, Jon pointed out how he would use a trendline to make an argument for this shortterm price action leading into earnings: a downward-sloping trend with some high marks to set a trend against, Jon said traders could look at this line as an ‘if the price breaks over this, and closes over this,’ then the fun begins.

See, when a simple trend is nixed by some event, it’s a battle of bears and bulls to see where the next chapter lands- will the price hold out above the down trend since June, or fall back below? No clue, but why don’t you let me know in the CoreWeave Stocktwits page?

The company now has to turn that backlog into active capacity without repeating the construction delays that hurt previous guidance. Watch revenue growth, buildout timing, and interest costs, because the earnings curse is broken only if Wednesday’s buyers stick around. 👀 

Community Read: See whether traders trust CoreWeave’s first earnings rally.

STOCKS
CAVA Serves a Beat 🥙

CAVA Group, the Mediterranean fast-casual chain, beat second-quarter expectations Tuesday night as traffic climbed despite food-safety fears surrounding leafy greens. Shares rallied after hours, setting up a sharp Wednesday reaction.

The RIP: $CAVA ( ▼ 1.25% ) +12.7% after hours; EPS $0.19 vs. $0.18 expected; revenue $368.4M vs. $360.5M expected; same-restaurant sales +9% vs. +7.6% expected.

Restaurant-growth investors got the number they needed: guest traffic increased 5.3%, but restaurant-level margin slipped 60 basis points to 25.7% as salmon costs, delivery orders, and wages applied pressure. CAVA kept its 2026 outlook at 75 to 77 new restaurants, 4.5% to 6.5% same-restaurant sales growth, and $181M to $191M in adjusted EBITDA. Watch whether July’s sales rebound continues, because the unchanged forecast shows management is still plating this one with caution.

Community Read: See why CAVA’s bullish room is looking past the unchanged forecast.

Supermicro’s Margin Rescue 🚀

Supermicro, the AI server and data-center hardware maker, reported Tuesday night and rallied despite missing revenue expectations. A sharp margin recovery and stronger fiscal 2027 outlook gave investors more than enough reason to forgive the top-line miss.

The RIP: $SMCI ( ▲ 0.45% ) +6.8% after hours; non-GAAP EPS $1.70; revenue $11.1B; gross margin 17.5% vs. 9.9% last quarter and 9.5% one year ago.

The margin rebound changed the story for holders who feared Supermicro’s growth was becoming low-profit volume. Management expects first-quarter revenue of $14.5B to $15.5B and full-year sales of $65B to $72B, backed by a record order backlog. The next test is whether Supermicro can preserve that profitability as deployments accelerate, because another slide toward single-digit margins would put tonight’s celebration on a very short leash.

Community Read: See how traders are sizing up Supermicro’s margin comeback.

PREVIEW NEWS
Nebius Reports Tomorrow 🧮

Nebius Group, the AI cloud operator, reports second-quarter results tomorrow before the market opens. Tuesday’s rebound recovered part of a 14.4% five-session slide, but the numbers will decide whether that bounce has legs.

The RIP: $NBIS ( ▲ 4.95% ) +5.0% Tuesday and +6.6% after hours; revenue estimate $569.9M; loss estimate $0.72/share; 2026 capital spending target $20B to $25B.

Neocloud holders have a clean showdown: Nebius says demand exceeds available capacity, while Michael Burry disclosed a short at $211.77 against the capital-heavy buildout. Tomorrow’s report must show whether back-end-weighted GPU deployments can support the expected revenue while absorbing that spending. Watch adjusted EBITDA, capacity timing, and progress at the 1.2-gigawatt Pennsylvania AI factory, because another deployment delay hands the bears their cleanest receipt.

Community Read: See what 67% bullish NBIS traders expect before the report.

EDITORS PICK
Where retail traders find their next setup, delivered right to your inbox.

Where retail traders find their next setup.

Clean setups, key levels, and charts actually worth your screen time, curated from millions of Stocktwits traders. No noise, no guru upsell. In your inbox daily by 8PM ET.

POPS & DROPS
Trending Now

$UAMY -15% | U.S. Antimony: The drop made the room more bullish

20.1K WATCHERS · BULLISH · HIGH ACTIVITY

U.S. Antimony tumbled after quarterly revenue missed management’s guidance, renewing questions about execution delays and reliance on government coordination. The bullish room treated the decline as an opportunity, but traders are split on whether stronger second-half deliveries can repair the damage.

$FLY +6% | Firefly Aerospace: The rally could not win over the room

9.4K WATCHERS · BEARISH · NORMAL ACTIVITY

Firefly Aerospace reported record quarterly revenue of $117.7M, up 659% year over year, as its space and defense portfolio expanded. The stock climbed, but the bearish room is debating whether contract growth can outrun spending, dilution, and the risks attached to scaling launch operations.

$ONDS +5% | Ondas: The drone win left out the number traders want

34.8K WATCHERS · BULLISH · HIGH ACTIVITY

Ondas won a multi-million-dollar Israeli Ministry of Defense tender to develop and produce the Digital Bat tactical attack drone. The award extends its defense-contract streak, but the active room is still waiting to learn how large the program can become and how quickly orders reach revenue.

$LITE +1% | Lumentum: The guide turned attention to one bottleneck

14.5K WATCHERS · EXTREMELY BULLISH · HIGH ACTIVITY

Lumentum beat fiscal fourth-quarter expectations and guided first-quarter revenue to $1.225B to $1.275B as AI data-center demand accelerated. The extremely bullish room is weighing that growth against manufacturing constraints and China-linked supply risks, with the next argument centered on how quickly capacity can catch demand.

SPONSORED

Blu Dot surpasses 2,000% ROAS with self-serve CTV ads

Blu Dot used Roku Ads Manager to drive incredible results for its furniture sales event. Its strategy hinged on custom audiences and retargeting, where intent was strongest.

“Roku has been a top performer,” said Blu Dot’s Claire Folkestad. “We have seen…CPMs lower than any other CTV partner we’ve worked with.”

Learn More

*3rd Party Ad. Not an offer or recommendation by Stocktwits. See disclosure here.

ST EDITOR’S PICKS
Links That Don’t Suck 🌐

🤑July inflation is expected to ease, despite recent energy shocks

🥪 Trump hid in catering truck in secret plane swap over Iran threat, reports say

🛢️ Oil continues climb with doubts about potential US-Iran deal; stocks retreat

🌎 Iran Preps for Worsening Economic Malaise to Withstand Trump’s Pressure

📰 Frenzy for Solar Eclipse Glasses Takes Over London

📰 FlightAware sues Kalshi over flight-cancellation markets

🤖 Nvidia’s Show of Financial Force Soothes Jittery Credit Markets

WHAT’S ON DECK
Tomorrow’s Top Things 📋

Macro: FOMC Press Release (9:00 AM ET), Existing home sales (10:00 AM ET). 📊
Pre-Market Earnings: $SE Sea Ltd – ADR, $OGI Organigram Global Inc., $ABUS Arbutus Biopharma Corp, $TONX TON Strategy Co., $ACHV Achieve Life Sciences Inc., +27 more. ☀️
After-Market Earnings: $SMCI Super Micro Computer Inc, $SLS SELLAS Life Sciences Group Inc, $CRWV CoreWeave Inc. – Ordinary Shares – Class A, $FIRY Firy Inc. – Ordinary Shares – Class A, $NSPR InspireMD Inc, +51 more. 🌙

Want to see some change? Email me, Kevin Travers with feedback, and follow me on Stocktwits. Refer a friend for this quarter’s edition of The RIP Forecast 😎 

Terms & Conditions 📝

_{Securities Disclaimer: STOCKTWITS IS NOT A TAX ADVISOR, BROKER, FINANCIAL ADVISOR OR INVESTMENT ADVISOR. THE SERVICE IS NOT INTENDED TO PROVIDE TAX, LEGAL, FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVICE, AND NOTHING ON THE SERVICE SHOULD BE CONSTRUED AS AN OFFER TO SELL, A SOLICITATION OF AN OFFER TO BUY, OR A RECOMMENDATION FOR ANY SECURITY. Trading in such securities can result in immediate and substantial losses of the capital invested. You should only invest risk capital and not capital required for other purposes. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether any investment, security or strategy, or any other product or service, is appropriate or suitable for you based on your investment objectives and personal and financial situation. You should also consult an attorney or tax professional regarding your specific legal or tax situation. The content is to be used for informational and entertainment purposes only and the service does not provide investment advice for any individual. Stocktwits, its affiliates and partners specifically disclaim any and all liability or loss arising out of any action taken in reliance on content, including but not limited to market value or other loss on the sale or purchase of any company, property, product, service, security, instrument, or any other matter. You understand that an investment in any security is subject to a number of risks and that discussions of any security published on the Service will not contain a list or description of relevant risk factors. In addition, please note that some of the stocks about which content is published on the service have a low market capitalization and/or insufficient public float. Such stocks are subject to more risk than stocks of larger companies, including greater volatility, lower liquidity and less publicly available information. Read the full terms & conditions here. 🔍
Author Disclosure: The author of this newsletter does not hold positions in any of the securities or assets mentioned. 📋}