This Better Not Be An April Fool’s Joke 🤔
OVERVIEW
This Better Not Be An April Fool’s Joke 🤔
source: giphy
Before we dive in, here’s today’s crypto market heatmap:
Source: Santiment
And here’s a look at crypto’s total market and altcoin market cap charts:
Source: TradingView
NEWS IN THREE SENTENCES
Crypto News 📰
🚨 Well, That Sucks: Trader Loses $3.7M Because Binance Changed Rules Mid-Game
A crypto trader got liquidated for $3.7 million after Binance suddenly updated margin rules without much warning, showing yet again why trading crypto with leverage is basically playing Russian roulette with a six-cylinder revolver with rounds in all six cylinders. Binance’s official advice—”pay more attention next time”—wasn’t super helpful. Finbold.
🦅 Trump Wants to Pay Off Debt with Bitcoin Bonds Because Printing Money Got Boring
The Trump administration introduced “BitBonds” to refinance $14 trillion in federal debt using $BTC.X ( ▲ 3.03% ). Don’t freak out or celebrate yet, this is just an idea and hasn’t even hit Congress yet. That we know of. coincu.
🐳 Tether Quietly Buys Another $735M of Bitcoin, Becomes Whalier Than Actual Whales
Tether now holds over 100,000 BTC, making it one of Bitcoin’s largest corporate holders—and probably the only whale whose “backup plan” includes Italian soccer clubs and AI startups. JPMorgan ($JPM ( ▼ 0.67% )) worries about Tether’s ($USDT.X ( ▼ 0.0% )) – probably has nothing to do with them being a part of Circles IPO.
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TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Q1 Is Over. Thank God. 😰
Out of all the top market cap cryptocurrencies, Ethereum probably took the biggest L in Q1. 😭
Sure, some tickers bled out more, but when you’re the #2 crypto and still manage to dump -45% amid what might be the most bullish fundamentals crypto’s had in forever, that’s an impressive level of pain.
Even worse, most of the top 25 non-stablecoin tickers smoked ETH by a mile. Hell, if you took ETH out of the equation, the altcoin market cap outperformed the total market cap! 🤯
Ethereum
ETHUSD Quarterly Chart – Click to enlarge.
ETH’s worse quarter since Q2 2022. What happened in Q2 of 2022? Do ‘Con’ Kwon’s Terra collapsed. easy bois. 🤦
Monero
XMRUSD Quarterly Chart – Click to enlarge.
Despite being delisted from many major exchanges (still), the biggest market cap privacy coin, $XMR.X ( ▲ 2.0% ), eeked out a gain for Q1.
Stellar
XLMUSD Quarterly Chart – Click to enlarge.
Only -20% for Q1 for $XLM.X ( ▲ 3.68% )? Not bad. Not as good as some others, but better than most.
Aptos
APTUSD Quarterly Chart – Click to enlarge.
If you’re looking for one of the reasons why Ethereum looks like it’s going the way of chokers, bedazzled jeans, and arm warmers – $APT.X ( ▲ 2.09% ) is one of them. ETH’s layer-2s are killing off ETH. Even at -39%, APT outperformed it’s mother chain.
Sui
SUIUSD Quarterly Chart – Click to enlarge.
Not even this upcoming juggernaut of a network could stop Q1’s slaughter. $SUI.X ( ▲ 7.52% ) is still holding up above the Q4 2024 open – so that’s a positive.
ON-CHAIN ANALYSIS
Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) Says The Deals Are Good, But No One Believes Them 🤷
The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) measures whether crypto investors are selling their coins at a profit or a loss, calculated simply by dividing the selling price by the purchase price. 💵
Traders use SOPR as a quick gauge of market sentiment: values consistently above 1 indicate profitable selling and bullish confidence, while sustained periods below 1 suggest traders are booking losses and sentiment is bearish.
Today, we’re going to look at the SOPRs of eight cryptocurrencies that are leaders in their spaces and/or popular with Stocktwits users.
Here’s what the SOPR’s for Ethereum, Solana, PEPE, Shiba Inu, Ondo Finance, Jasmy, dogwifhat, and Balancer:
Ethereum
Click to enlarge.
$ETH.X ( ▲ 5.13% )’s Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) hovered mostly above 1 through early Q1, meaning traders cashed out some tidy gains and stayed comfortably smug. But March turned into a bit of a dumpster fire, with SOPR dipping consistently below 1, implying ETH holders started panic-dumping at losses—noobs gonna noob.
Keep an eye on this dip: sustained values below 1 hint at a bearish hangover. 🍻
Solana
Click to enlarge.
$SOL.X ( ▲ 0.32% )’s SOPR struggled to maintain the momentum it had in 2024, frequently dipping below 1 into Q1 2025, meaning holders started offloading at a loss. It’s currently hovering near breakeven, meaning Solana bulls are are becoming cautiously optimistic. 😐️
Pepe
Click to enlarge.
PEPE’s SOPR started the year with a classic meme-pump, briefly mooning above 1.25 before crashing back to earth. The majority of Q1 saw SOPR repeatedly faceplant below 1, clearly indicating $PEPE.X ( ▲ 6.88% ) traders were booking losses.
Currently, things look even uglier—late March ended with another brutal dip, so if you’re still holding, congrats on your conviction or condolences on your sanity. But that questionable sanity could turn into genius if the market flips to bull mode again. 🧠
Shiba Inu
Click to enlarge.
$SHIB.X ( ▲ 2.51% ) traders enjoyed about five whole minutes of glory with the SOPR spiking near 2 in early January before diving faster than a shitcoin influencer’s credibility.
SOPR has spent nearly all of 2025 under water, meaning most Shib holders spent Q1 coping harder than usual. If you’re still holding SHIB, your therapist is probably doing great. 💩
Ondo Finance
Click to enlarge.
ONDO kicked off the year with a SOPR spike hitting 2.5—someone definitely cashed out big and left everyone else holding their overpriced bags. The rest of Q1 saw a steady decline, with the SOPR dragging below 1 as investors booked steady Ls all quarter long.
By March, $ONDO.X ( ▲ 7.45% ) holders seemed stuck in a slow bleed, which sounds about right. 🩸
JasmyCoin
Click to enlarge.
$JASMY.X ( ▲ 5.06% ) delivered one epic spike above 2 in early January before fading into total obscurity—if you blinked, you missed the entire pump.
Sine then, the SOPR has languished consistently below 1, a clear sign investors are dumping at losses just to get the pain over with. 🤕
dogwifhat
Click to enlarge.
$WIF.X ( ▲ 0.99% ) spent Q1 basically drowning, with the SOPR rarely even sniffing the breakeven line. Frequent plunges near 0.5 mean holders weren’t just losing money—they were actively burning it. 🔥
Balancer
Click to enlarge.
$BAL.X ( ▲ 2.81% ) holders started off thinking they’d found stability, hovering just below breakeven until reality hit hard in March. Multiple crashes of the SOPR below 0.4 show investors bailing out faster than a cat hitting water. If you’re still holding BAL, you’re either wildly optimistic or, like me, just bad at letting go. 😿
PRESENTED BY STOCKTWITS
Ben Cahn Crashes Today’s Daily Rip Live 👀
“The Weekend Rip’s” Ben Cahn joined Katie Perry on Daily Rip Live to discuss Monday’s comeback, what “Liberation Day” could mean for stocks, a potential Tesla short squeeze, the parabolic Newsmax IPO, and what to short as a recession looms.
Plus, Ben’s top biotech pick, which he calls his “highest conviction long.” Check out all that and more down below. 👇️
ON-CHAIN ANALYSIS
Burnt Bag Briefing 🔥
Want to know whether the bulls or bears are feeling the most pain today? Well, this is the place to look. 👀
24-Hour Liquidation Heat Map – Source: coinglass – Click to enlarge.
In the past 24 hours, 86,866 traders were liquidated, with total liquidations reaching nearly $242.66 million.
The largest single liquidation occurred on Binance, an ACTUSD pair valued at $3.79 million.
Longs lost $106.07 million, while shorts were hit for $136.59 million. 🤕
LINKS
Links That Don’t Suck 🔗
🐶 Is the Dogecoin blockchain working? Dev claims otherwise
🤖 OpenAI unveils first open-weight language model since GPT-2
😱 Grayscale files to convert Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP large cap fund into an ETF:
🛖 Hut 8 and Trump family forge Bitcoin mining venture, spin-off possible
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Author Disclosure: The author of this newsletter holds positions in ADA, IMX, COPI, MIN, AGIX, ALGO, ZEC, XLM, and NEAR. 📋
