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Core PCE Spot In-Line – Still Too High. Stay The Course
Core PCE Spot In-Line – Still Too High. Stay The Course
Craig Shapiro The Alethea Narrative
Core PCE comes in at 0.249% m om, basically spot in line with expectations which isn’t surprising given most economists have nearly all the data ahead of time with the CPI and PPI releases. This doesn’t really change much about the trajectory...
8 months ago
2 MIN READ
Chart of the Day – SFRZ5 vs US Citi Surprise Index
Chart of the Day – SFRZ5 vs US Citi Surprise Index
Craig Shapiro The Alethea Narrative
View the 1 images of this gallery on the original article Source: Bloomberg There is a pretty reasonable correlation between the outlook for short term interest rates 12-18 months out (as measured by December SOFR Futures – price inverted on chart)...
9 months ago
2 MIN READ
Mistakes Were Made
Mistakes Were Made
Craig Shapiro The Alethea Narrative
The Fed thought they achieved the immaculate disinflation / “Golden Path” last fall and figured they could pivot policy in a more dovish direction and never deliver the last intended rate hike that a substantial majority of Fed members...
9 months ago
3 MIN READ
Time For The Hawks To Come Out And Play
Time For The Hawks To Come Out And Play
Craig Shapiro The Alethea Narrative
The only real tool the Federal Reserve has at this point to tighten financial conditions in a meaningful enough way to assist their plan to bring inflation back down to target in a timely manner is to use their DOT plot from the SEP in an aggressive...
8 months ago
3 MIN READ