CLOSING BELL
$100 A Barrel

Markets fell Thursday as Brent oil prices closed above $100/barrel for the first time since 2022. The new leader in Tehran is pledging to close Hormuz for good and attack on new fronts. It was his first statement since his despotic father, innocent wife and child were killed by Israel and the U.S. in a regime decapitation strike, and today the seventh $60M+ oil tanker was hit by an Iranian drone in the Strait of Hormuz.

Trump suspended the centuries-old Jones Act to get more ships shipping to and from American ports, which is a bad look for the Donroe Doctrine. The White House also released nearly half of the strategic oil reserve Wednesday night, 172M barrels of crude, which will take about three months to get pumping in the right direction. Sounds wonderful, but the Iran blockade is halting 20M barrels a day of trade, so the reserve would make up for about a week and change.

Scott Bessent said the Navy might start escorting ships to safety… Eventually. The trade deficit dropped 25% to $54.5B in Jan, in a spit of good news for tariffs, exports rose and imports fell.

High oil prices and expectations for more inflation to come are sending bets on rate cuts further out. Bond traders began pricing in less than a 100% chance of a quarter point cut this year, according to Bloomberg. Betters are looking at a 99% no change for next week, with PCE inflation data to come Friday morning. If it was like the CPI, it will inspire little mood for cuts. Mortgage rates jumped to 6.11%, the highest since I started writing the Daily Rip back in April ‘25.

AFTER THE BELL
Post-Market Reports Not Looking Great

Adobe’s Numbers Can’t Save It: $ADBE dropped 8.33% today even as the creative software giant beat Q1 expectations across the board, underscoring how thoroughly the AI disruption narrative has broken the stock’s relationship with its fundamentals. Also, the head guy in charge is stepping down.

The Rip: $6.06 non-GAAP EPS vs. $5.87 estimate; $6.4B revenue vs. $6.28B consensus, up 12% year-over-year; operating cash flow hit a record $2.96B; AI-first ARR more than tripled year-over-year.

The numbers didn’t matter because CEO Shantanu Narayen announced he’s stepping down once a successor is named. There is nothing investors like less than leadership uncertainty on top of existential threats from new tech. Canva and Midjourney are giving Adobe a run for its money. Q2 guidance of $6.43B-$6.48B revenue and $5.80-$5.85 EPS came in ahead of estimates but didn’t move the needle. 📉

SentinelOne Clears the Bar, Guidance Doesn’t: The cybersecurity platform hit Q4 numbers but $S ( ▼ 2.68% ) shares are under pressure after FY2027 revenue guidance came in light of what the Street was looking for.

The RIP: $0.07 non-GAAP EPS vs. $0.06 estimate; $271.2M revenue vs. $270.96M consensus, up 20% year-over-year; ARR grew 22% to $1.12B; non-GAAP operating margin expanded to 6% from 1% a year ago.

The full-year FY2027 revenue guide of $1.2B-$1.21B is the number holders need to watch. It implies a deceleration from 22% growth toward roughly 20%, and it landed below what analysts had penciled in. The GAAP net loss margin also widened to 41% from 31%, which cuts against the profitability narrative management has been building.🛡️

Kodak’s Revenue Revival Has a Catch: The legacy print-and-chemicals company posted a solid Q4 beat Thursday, with $KODK surging 12.77% in after-hours, but its cash growth came from terminating its pension plan. 🤫 

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INDUSTRY NEWS
Private Credit’s Redemption Wave Hits Morgan Stanley

$MS ( ▼ 4.05% ) has restricted withdrawals at its North Haven Private Income Fund after investors tried to pull out nearly 11% of shares outstanding, the latest sign that confidence in the private credit market is cracking.

The fund returned roughly $169M — about 45.8% of what investors requested — honoring only the contractual cap of 5% of units outstanding per quarter. They and other institutions are worried.

It’s becoming a pattern: BlackRock restricted withdrawals from a flagship debt fund earlier this month, Blackstone’s BCRED reported a surge in Q1 withdrawals on March 2. Blue Owl $OWL ( ▼ 4.55% ) faces renewed scrutiny over asset sales, and Bloomberg reported Thursday that it was defending its February sale of $1.4B in loans from its funds. Even JPMorgan has quietly marked down loans to private credit funds exposed to software companies.

It’s a $1.8T market for private credit, but the AI disruption narrative is taking over the story: if software company earnings deteriorate, their ability to service private loans go out the window.

Public investors holding $BX ( ▼ 4.78% ) , OWL , $BLK ( ▼ 2.97% ) , and MS should treat rising redemption gates not as routine fund mechanics but as an early warning on portfolio credit quality. 🏦

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TRENDING STOCKS
Pops & Drops

• $CF ( ▲ 13.21% )  CF Industries: surged after nitrogen prices hit multi-year highs

• $FLY ( ▲ 12.77% )  Firefly: soared after successful Alpha Flight 7 mission

• $MOS ( ▲ 7.58% )  Mosaic: popped after fertilizer prices jumped on disruptions

• $OXY ( ▲ 5.09% )  Occidental: jumped alongside oil

• $RILY ( ▼ 10.59% )  B. Riley: tanked after 2026 debt wall liquidity fears

• $ELF ( ▼ 9.22% )  e.l.f. Beauty: tanked after weak guidance and tariff concerns

• $EL ( ▼ 7.92% )  Estée Lauder: slid after China demand and tariff headwinds

• $CCL ( ▼ 7.89% )  Carnival: fell after surging fuel costs hit margins

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WHAT’S ON DECK
Tomorrow’s Top Things 📋

Macro: State Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report (9:00 AM ET), PCE Inflation Rate (9:00 AM ET), Gross Domestic Product (9:00 AM ET), FOMC Press Release (9:00 AM ET), Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (9:00 AM ET), Personal Income and Outlays (9:00 AM ET). 📊

After-Market Earnings: $VEON, $SMLR, $GOSS. 🌙

P.S. You can listen to all of these earnings calls on Stocktwits.

Links That Don’t Suck 🌐

📈 What it will mean for the economy if the Strait of Hormuz stays closed

🤑  Firefly’s Alpha Rocket Returns To Orbit Successfully, Sends FLY Stock Up 5% Overnight

😨 Tech Giants Hover on Cusp of a Correction as War Heats Up

🏠️ US trade deficit dropped by 25% in January, a win for Trump

💰️ Markets’ hopes for Fed interest rate cuts are rapidly fading away

📺️ Strait of Hormuz must remain closed as ‘tool to pressure enemy,’ Iran’s new supreme leader says 

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