8pm Stone Age
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CLOSING BELL
8pm Stone Age
The market fell Tuesday, after doom and gloom unlike any investors have heard from a sitting president made the current ceasefire in the Iran war look more like the narrator’s deep breath before reading the Book of Revelations.
The president said a ‘whole civilization will die tonight,’ before the 8pm ET deadline, U.S. and Israeli bombing runs already starting up again, but news from Pakistani peace weavers made the market hopeful a ceasefire deal might actually come soon. Pakistan is proposing a two week extension to the ceasefire.
Reports from the White House and Tehran said both sides know about the proposal, which is enough to turn the red decline into a slight market rise for the day. Oil still finished near $110/barrel.
In non horrific news, the Artemis II mission successfully passed behind the dark side of the moon last night, catching an unimaginably rare sight of the heavenly body that protects the earth from asteroid strikes.
They were able to name previously undiscovered features today. Canadian Jeremy Hansen radioed mission control to propose we on Earth name a bright spot on the moon after Carroll Wiseman, the late wife of mission commander Reid Wiseman. She passed away from cancer in 2020.
AFTER THE BELL
Ackman Wants UMG in New York:
Bill Ackman, back in the news again after he posted support for mortgage repackagers he owns alongside the government, Tuesday pitched a $65B restructuring deal to relist Universal Music Group on a US exchange. He argues European markets have been neglecting one of the best music businesses on the planet, and $UMGP ( ▲ 58.55% ) jumped 13% on the news before the skeptics got loud. The proposal is to merge with a SPAC owned by his firm called Pershing Square $SPARC Holdings, bringing the labels of wildly successful artists like Taylor Swift and Bad Bunny back to the U.S.
The RIP: Offer implies €30.40/share, €5.05 cash plus 0.77 shares in new US-listed entity, a 78% premium to Thursday’s close. Ackman values UMG at €56B ($64.8B). Pershing Square commits €2.5B; new entity takes on €5.4B in debt. Requires two-thirds shareholder approval, per Bloomberg.
Bolloré, a French billionaire, controls 18%+ and the deal is functionally dead without him. Tencent (11%) and Vivendi (10%) also need to move on the decision. Holders of $SPOT should note Ackman’s plan includes selling UMG’s Spotify stake for ~€1.5B, which puts additional supply on the table.
STOCKS
Paramount Lures Sovereign Capital ☁️
The long-contested merger between Paramount Skydance and Warner Bros. Discovery found a massive financial anchor on Tuesday, sending $PSKY up 11% as Middle Eastern wealth funds stepped in to provide the heavy lifting for the transaction’s massive capital requirements.
The RIP: $PSKY confirmed via 8-K filing that an equity syndication led by Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, Abu Dhabi’s L’imad Holding, and Qatar Investment Authority will invest $24B to back the acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery. Per the WSJ, the PIF is contributing $10B of the total, while the Ellison family and RedBird retain the largest equity stake and all voting rights.
For current holders, the injection significantly de-risks the balance sheet for the $81B deal, though political headwinds remain the primary threat to the thesis. The merger still needs to make it through European regulators. Stocktwits sentiment trended in the bullish territory on Tuesday as retail investors digested the scale of the investment. 🎥
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INDUSTRY NEWS
Blackstone Hits Hard Cap
The world’s largest alternative asset manager finalized its newest credit fund on Tuesday, though $BX ( ▲ 0.44% ) slipped 0.9% as fears in private wealth products overshadowed the fundraise. The $10B raise confirms institutional appetite for private credit remains robust even as retail vehicles like BCRED face redemption pressure. 💿
The RIP: $BX closed Blackstone Capital Opportunities Fund V with over $10B in investable capital, hitting its hard cap. The strategy has generated a 13% net IRR since its 2007 inception. Blackstone now manages $520B across credit and insurance platforms, part of a record $1.27T total AUM base.
INDUSTRY NEWS
Broadcom’s AI Chip Pipeline Expansion Accelerates
Shares of $AVGO jumped +6.21% on Tuesday after the chipmaker agreed late Monday to produce Google’s AI chips. It also launched into an expanded deal with Anthropic for compute capacity.
The RIP: 3.5 gigawatts of compute for Google AI chips, all aimed right at Anthropic. The Claude maker said Tuesday it reached $30B in annualized revenue, becoming the top app in the free section of the Apple Store. Last year the company pulled in just $9B.
Broadcom is effectively the “toll collector” for the custom TPU market, with these multi-gigawatt deals providing revenue visibility well into the next decade. CEO Hock Tan said in February they were running 1 GW for Google processing compute, the company helps build Google’s processors, and next year it looks like the volume is tripling. Retail should monitor if massive custom chip volumes dilute gross margins, which remained flat at 77% this quarter. Analysts at Rosenblatt reaffirmed a buy rating and $500 price target following the news. 💿
INDUSTRY NEWS
Medicare Advantage Increase Sends Healthcare Climbing 🩹
As we talked about yesterday, Medicare Advantage insurers are breathing a massive sigh of relief after the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) raised rates more than previously expected. In January they offered a measly 0.09% rate increase, but the final 2027 payment rates landed at a much heftier +2.48%. It unlocks an estimated $13 billion in additional government payments. Keep an eye on $HUM, $UNH, and $CVS as they reclaim key moving averages following this regulatory green light. 🏥
“We view the revision more as righting an actuarial wrong, not CMS backing off its disciplinarian stance toward MA plans.” — Jefferies Analysts
TRENDING STOCKS ON STOCKTWITS
Pops & Drops
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$CAR ( ▲ 20.01% ) Avis Budget: up +20.01% after used car prices hit multi-year highs
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$CRWD ( ▲ 6.18% ) CrowdStrike: up +6.18% after Wolfe Research analyst upgrade
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$ANET ( ▲ 5.85% ) Arista Networks: up +5.85% after cybersecurity sector tailwinds
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$PANW ( ▲ 4.89% ) Palo Alto: up +4.89% after AI threat-driven security demand
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$AAPL ( ▼ 2.07% ) Apple: down -2.07% after foldable phone delays, UBS note
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$FJET ( ▼ 5.13% ) Starfighters Space: down -5.13% after speculative retail profit taking
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$CPB ( ▼ 5.18% ) Campbell’s: down -5.18% after analyst price target cuts, downgrade
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$TTD ( ▼ 6.8% ) Trade Desk: down -6.80% after growth stock valuation reset
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$AXON ( ▼ 9.73% ) Axon Enterprise: down -9.73% after profit taking amid macro risk
EDITOR’S PICKS
Content Worth Consuming 🥐 🗞️
Comedian Nathan Macintosh joins Michele Steele on Stocktwits TV ahead of his appearance at the Cashtag Awards on May 4th at the New York Stock Exchange, and the conversation quickly turns into a sharp, funny take on why tech and money have everyone on edge.
Don’t miss a story! Follow @StocktwitsNews for a live feed in real time. ✍️
WHAT’S ON DECK
Tomorrow’s Top Things 📋
Macro: Crude Oil Inventories + Cushing (10:30 AM ET), 10-Year Note Auction (1:00 PM ET), FOMC Meeting Minutes (2:00 PM ET). 📊
Pre-Market Earnings: $DAL Delta Air Lines, $BBGI Beasley Broadcast Group, $HES Hess Corporation. ☀️
First Airline Into the Oil Fire: $DAL, the first major carrier to report since crude crossed $110 and jet fuel blew past $4 a gallon. Consensus sits at $0.62 EPS vs. $0.46 a year ago; revenue est: $14.8B-$15.1B, up ~7% YoY. Wells Fargo cut target to $75, Jefferies to $72, both maintaining Buy. Anyone holding $DAL, $UAL, $AAL, or $LUV should treat the forward demand commentary as the only number that matters. ✈️
After-Market Earnings: $APLD Applied Digital Corp, $NWBO Northwest Biotherapeutics Inc, $STZ Constellation Brands, $CVAC CureVac N.V., $ARTW Art`s-way Manufacturing Co. Inc.. 🌙
P.S. You can listen to all of these earnings calls on Stocktwits.
Links That Don’t Suck 🌐
😨 US Strikes Kharg Island as Trump Repeats Threat to Destroy Iran
🏠️ Ackman’s Pershing Square makes $64B bid for Taylor Swift label Universal Music Group
🚀 Emotional Artemis II crew names moon crater ‘Carroll’ after NASA commander’s late wife
👀 Apple’s foldable iPhone is on track to launch in September, report says
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