OVERVIEW

After Moon-vember Comes Meh-cember

Before we dive in, here’s today’s crypto market heatmap:

Source: Santiment

And here’s a look at crypto’s total and altcoin market cap YTD:

Source: TradingView

New In Three Sentences
Crypto News 📰

📈 Pantera Says Bitcoin Could Hit $740K by 2028

Dan Morehead claims Bitcoin could moon to $740,000 in the next four years if it keeps doubling annually as it has for over a decade. He also thinks President-elect Trump’s pro-blockchain stance could finally turn crypto’s regulatory headwinds into tailwinds. With a market cap already rivaling Meta, Bitcoin might soon make the rest of the financial world look tiny. The Block.

💵 Cartels Using Tether for Dirty Money

Apparently, drug cartels like Sinaloa are laundering millions through Tether (USDT), leveraging its speed and anonymity to shuffle cash across borders. The U.S. government has already seized millions in USDT from Binance accounts tied to these operations. Tether claims it can freeze shady transactions, but its transparency issues keep raising eyebrows. Cryptopolitan.

🔗 Tron Controls $60B of USDT Transactions

Tron now processes 92% of all USDT transfers globally, hosting $60 billion in stablecoins on its network. Justin Sun has effectively turned Tron into the go-to stablecoin remittance hub for terrorists and the Mexican cartels, even though its market cap is a fraction of its utility. TheDailyHODL.

🇺🇸 Trump Wants CFTC to Take Over Crypto Regulation

Trump’s team wants to strip the SEC of crypto oversight and hand it to the CFTC, which is seen as friendlier and less overbearing. With Gensler on his way out, this could be the industry’s best chance to escape the SEC’s endless enforcement antics. Whether the CFTC is up to the task is a separate question, but the shift could turbocharge crypto innovation in the U.S. Fox Business.

🎮 Yellow Panther Calls Web3 Gaming a Full-Time Grind

Yellow Panther, a top Web3 gamer, says the job is less “play games for money” and more “run a mini-empire.” He’s built a career advising gaming projects while juggling content creation and staying competitive, but he’s not shy about calling out botched token launches that leave players with pennies. MAGAZINE.

⚖️ Court Says Tornado Cash Sanctions Don’t Hold Up

A federal court just ruled that Tornado Cash’s smart contracts aren’t property, so the Treasury Department can’t sanction them. This overturns an earlier decision blaming Tornado Cash for enabling North Korea-linked hacks and laundering. The ruling is a win for decentralized tools, even if the DOJ isn’t done targeting its developers. Axios.

ANALYSIS
Bitcoin’s Historical Performance In December 📆 

December is just around the corner – so let’s take a look at how Bitcoin has performed in past Decembers.

December: Bitcoin’s Wildcard Month

December has the unfortunate position of following November – which is, hands down, the best-performing month for crypto, period. November ranks 1st in overall average performance and 1st in its average gains when it closes in the green.

December isn’t really trying to be November, and that’s fine. It still shows up with respectable stats:

• Avg Increase When Up: 31.95%

• Avg Decrease When Down: -13.91%

• Overall Monthly Change: 12.30%

It’s a middle-of-the-pack performer that’s reliable when it wants to be but can also throw a curveball because, well, its Bitcoin.

December vs. The Rest

1. Avg Increase When Up

   • Rank: 5th out of 12

   • Avg Up: 31.95%
     Decent, but not exactly popping champagne.

2. Avg Decrease When Down

   • Rank: 4th out of 12

   • Avg Down: -13.91%
     It’s not the worst, but it’s still a reminder Bitcoin doesn’t play nice.

3. Overall Monthly Change

   • Rank: 6th out of 12

   • Overall Avg: 12.30%
     Good enough to avoid the bottom half but not winning any awards either.

Key Takeaways

• It’s Solid… Usually
  December isn’t the time to bet your life savings, but it’s not a bad month to sit back and enjoy some modest gains. Unless it’s 2013, then… good luck.

• Big Bull Years Matter
  Years like 2011 (+56.67%) and 2020 (+46.97%) show December can deliver when the stars align.

• Recent Years Are a Mixed Bag
  Two of the last five Decembers (2020 and 2023) were solid. The others? Meh, or worse.

The Bottom Line

December’s fine. It’s not going to steal November’s thunder, but it also won’t gut you like February or October. It’s the kind of month that won’t make headlines unless Bitcoin decides it wants to end the year with a bang.

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ANALYSIS
Bitcoin By The Quarter 🎢

Average Increase When Up

• Q1 +34.34%

• Q2 +38.08%

• Q3 +15.49%

• Q4 +47.33%

Average Decrease When Down

• Q1 -18.04%

• Q2 -13.11%

• Q3 -12.18%

• Q4 -16.90%

Overall Average Quarterly Change

• Q1 +12.12%

• Q2 +20.76%

• Q3 +0.47%

• Q4 +23.14%

Observations

• Q4 (October to December)

  • Exhibits the highest average increase when up at 47.33%.

  • Achieves the highest overall average gain of 23.14%.

  • Has a significant average decrease when down at -16.90%, higher volatility during downturns.

• Q2 (April to June)

  • Shows a strong average increase when up of 38.08%.

  • Records the second-highest overall average gain at 20.76%.

  • Features the lowest average decrease when down at -13.11%, probable milder downturns.

• Q1 (January to March)

  • Maintains a moderate average increase when up of 34.34%.

  • Posts an overall average gain of 12.12%.

  • Experiences the highest average decrease when down at -18.04%, indicating greater volatility during declines.

• Q3 (July to September)

  • Reports the lowest average increase when up at 15.49%.

  • Registers a minimal overall average gain of 0.47%.

  • Has the lowest average decrease when down at -12.18%, less severe downturns but also fewer gains.

Key Takeaways

• Seasonal Trends

  • Q4 is historically the strongest quarter for Bitcoin, potentially offering the most significant gains.

  • Q2 also demonstrates strong performance with substantial gains and lower volatility during downturns.

• Volatility Patterns

  • Q1 tends to be more volatile during market declines, with the highest average decrease when down.

  • Q3 shows reduced volatility but also presents limited opportunities for gains.

• Investment Considerations

  • Q4 may offer the best opportunities for returns, albeit with increased volatility.

  • Q2 provides a balance between strong gains and milder downturns, making it a potentially favorable period.

  • Q3 may be less attractive for significant gains based on historical performance.

ON-CHAIN ANALYSIS
Burnt Bag Briefing 🔥 

Want to know whether the bulls or bears are feeling the most pain today? Well, this is the place to look. 👀

24-Hour Liquidation Heat Map – Source: Coinglass – Click to enlarge.

In the past 24 hours, 99,595 traders were liquidated, with total liquidations reaching $288.14 million.

The largest single liquidation occurred on Binance, a BTCUSDT pair valued at $5.93 million.

Longs lost $139.90 million, while shorts were hit for $148.50 million. 🤕 

LINKS
Links That Don’t Suck 🔗

😱 MSNBC loses almost HALF its viewers in stunning post-election ratings report

💩 Some Bitcoiners need to grow up and focus on their own shit

🃏 Bloomberg analyst says altcoin ETFs will ignite a ‘wild’ crypto market in 2025

ℹ️ Paul Atkins emerges as top contender for SEC chair under Trump administration

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