Back-and-Forth Blockade
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CLOSING BELL
Back-and-Forth Blockade
The market fell Thursday, despite hitting an intraday record high for the S&P 500. Prices are cooling off after a record-setting run on war ceasefire news. The outlook was worse Thursday, and reactions to major tech earnings were muted to red.
Trump ordered the Navy to strike any small boat in the Strait that may be laying mines Thursday, the gridlock blockade not budging an inch. The President said that the Navy also boarded an Iranian supertanker in the Indian Ocean, a part of the ever heralded ‘floating oil’ fleet that circles the globe.
In stock news, it is EARNINGS. SEASON. In all caps because you would not believe the number of stocks that are flying or crashing on their reports today. Tesla, IBM, and ServiceNow were the top names making divots in their price graphs after reports last night. Texas Instruments, on the other hand led a chip-making rally.
Michael Contopoulos, Janes Henderson Investors head of Macro, said the rally we all just watched was a return to the little leading the many: the stocks that climbed the most on hopes of stability were the top stocks on the S&P 500, the Apples, the Metas, ect.
From software to AI implementation, tech reports are coming fast a quick, and the market is having none of what once were great results.
AFTER THE BELL
Intel’s Comeback Quarter 💾
The comeback kid chipmaker and Dow component, Intel delivered its biggest positive earnings surprise in more than four years on Thursday, sending shares ripping after-hours as new CEO Lip-Bu Tan’s AI pitch showed up in the numbers, and the stock was flying across Stocktwits.
It was the sixth consecutive quarter beating expectations, Lip-Bu Tan said on the firm’s earnings call Thursday night. He said the next wave of AI is moving from the loud and fast model makers to computer processing-hungry inference and agentic training. Intel builds 50% of the CPU market in the U.S. 👨🎓
“This shift is significantly increasing the need for Intel’s CPUs and wafer and advanced packaging offerings,” Tan said. “With a solid foundation in place, we are addressing this opportunity by listening to our customers. This deliberate reset to how we operate drove a sixth consecutive quarter of revenue above our expectations.”
The RIP: $INTC ( ▲ 2.31% ) jumped +16% after hours, Q1 adjusted EPS hit $0.29 vs. the $0.01 consensus; revenue rose 7.2% to $13.58B vs. $12.36B expected. Data center and AI revenue climbed 22% to $5.1B, topping the $4.41B estimate.
Holders of $INTC should watch whether foundry and AI momentum holds, because Q2 guidance came in hot across the board: revenue at $13.8B-$14.8B vs. $13.04B Street, and adjusted gross margin at 39% vs. the 36.5% expected. Options traders paid the richest premiums in a year into the print with implied volatility at 79% in the 98th percentile, and they still underpriced it.
STOCKS
ServiceNow’s Beat, Software’s Bloodbath 🔥
ServiceNow’s first-quarter release Wednesday night was supposed to settle the AI-disruption debate tearing through enterprise software, but investors read the Middle East government deal delays and margin slip as confirmation the bears are right and dumped the entire AI SaaS complex on Thursday.
The RIP: $NOW cratered -18% on Q1 subscription revenue of $3.67B (up 22% YoY) and adjusted EPS of $0.97, both beats. We ran through the numbers last night, but the market ran through the entire software cohort after the massive sell off $CRM -9%, $WDAY -9%, $TEAM -9%, $IBM -8%, $ADBE -7%, $ZS -7%, $PLTR -7%, $ORCL -6%, $ADSK -6%, $INTU -6%, $APP -6%, $SHOP -6%, $CDNS -5%.
Holders across the SaaS complex should watch whether this is a one-time blip or a durable margin story. When the cleanest software print of the quarter gets sold 18% on 75 basis points of delayed deals, the market is telling you AI disruption fear has decoupled from fundamentals.
Price targets were generally cut today across the board, it was not pretty:
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Goldman Sachs — Buy, PT $188 → $163. Still “system of action” for AI spend.
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Jefferies — PT $175 → $135. Sentiment muted till analyst day.
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Piper Sandler — Overweight, PT $200 → $140. Flags Now Assist ACV target raised to $1.5B; calls shares attractive at 5x EV/’27 rev.
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Canaccord — Buy, PT $200 → $145. Calls selloff “punitive” for a quarter that “seemed fine.”
$NOW ( ▼ 17.75% ) was the name long-only funds owned as the AI-safe SaaS compounder; losing that designation puts $CRM, $WDAY, and $ADBE in the same penalty box until one of them prints clean. Until then, every software bull needs a new thesis. 🔥
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MACRO NEWS
Cannabis Gets the Schedule III Shuffle 🌿
We brought you the rumor news last night, but the market took the real news Thursday and sent the cannabis industry into the grinder. The DOJ FINALLY rescheduled cannabis, but the market priced it as if Reefer Madness dropped in theaters.
Tilray and cannabis peers whipsawed on Thursday after the Trump administration moved to reclassify marijuana under federal law, a decadelong industry wish that landed with investors less euphoric than expected.
The RIP: $TLRY ( ▼ 11.82% ) popped at the open before fading into the red with the sector. DOJ said it will immediately move FDA-approved and state medical cannabis products to Schedule III from Schedule I, with a June hearing on full rescheduling. The shift exempts operators from IRS 280E and unlocks banking access.
Holders should watch how fast rulemaking actually moves. Rescheduling typically takes years, and critics warn the plan could create a two-track drug development system that sidesteps the FDA. The 280E exemption alone could free up cash for operators like $TLRY, $CGC, and $CRON, assuming Washington sticks the landing. 🌿
TRENDING ON STOCKTWITS
Pops & Drops
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$SKLZ ( ▲ 238.32% ) Skillz: soared +238% after $420M Papaya Gaming jury verdict
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$MOH ( ▲ 14.18% ) Molina Healthcare: jumped +14% after Q1 EPS beat, MCR held
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$WST ( ▲ 12.86% ) West Pharmaceutical: popped +13% after Q1 blowout beat
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$CMCSA ( ▲ 7.73% ) Comcast: popped +8% after Olympics and Super Bowl ad boom
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$LVS ( ▼ 8.62% ) Las Vegas Sands: tumbled -9% after Q1 beat, Macau margins
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$FCX ( ▼ 12.62% ) Freeport-McMoRan: tumbled -13% after Q1 beat
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$LULU ( ▼ 13.33% ) Lululemon: tanked -13% after new CEO pick disappointed investors
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$ASGN ( ▼ 51.69% ) ASGN: cratered -52% after Q1 miss, Everforth rebrand announced
THE CASHTAG AWARDS
The BIGGEST night in Finance. May 4th. NYSE.
The Cashtag Awards are built by the Stocktwits community and it wouldn’t be the same without you in the room!
We’re offering a limited number of fully comped tickets for members who want to show up, represent, and help make this night as special as it should be.
Want to celebrate with us on May 4th?
WHAT’S ON DECK
Tomorrow’s Top Things 📋
Macro: Durable Goods ex-Defense/Transport (Mar) (8:30 AM ET), Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Mar) (8:30 AM ET), U.S. Baker Hughes Rig Count (Oil + Total) (1:00 PM ET). 📊
Pre-Market Earnings: $PG Procter & Gamble, $SLB Schlumberger, $HCA HCA Healthcare, $NSC Norfolk Southern. ☀️
After-Market Earnings: $FLG Flagstar Bank National Association, $CHTR Charter Communications, $PBI Pitney Bowes Inc, $WU Western Union Company. 🌙
P.S. You can listen to all of these earnings calls on Stocktwits.
Links That Don’t Suck 🌐
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😨 Anthropic’s Mythos breach was humiliating
🏠️ Microsoft plans first-ever voluntary employee buyout for up to 7% of U.S. workforce
📺️ Trump orders U.S. military to ‘shoot and kill’ Iranian small boats choking Strait of Hormuz
*3rd Party Ad. Not an offer or recommendation by Stocktwits. See disclosure here.
Get In Touch 📬
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