CLOSING BELL
Happy Monday!

The market fell again Monday, a shortened trading week opening to an ever lengthended war in Iran. The conflict started more than a month ago, and paused attacks from the U.S. are looking more like a great inhale before another breath of fire.

Crude futures climbed past $105/barrel, President Trump threatened possible boots on-the-ground action from paratroopers and Navy Seals over uranium and nuclear capabilities, while Iran still believes it has the upper hand with a strangle hold on the Strait. The Financial Times quoted Trump as wanting control of the Iranian Oil industry ‘indefinitely.’

In equities, semi stocks were still falling, Google’s blog post about a year-old algorithm is really freaking them out, still. SpaceX IPO is the talk of the upcoming listing town, the Musk effect making things fun for those watching and complicating things for the rash of companies and ETFs that now claim to offer pre-IPO exposure.

Powell spoke today, pushing the likely here to stay concept that rates are here to stay until the war and already bad job market turn into peace and a great job market. Jobs data drops this week, and treasuries saw a terrible month but a surging day for rates.

 $FNMA and $FMCC surged on a bullish call from Michael Burry, but the broader market remains fixated on the “demand destruction” narrative in semiconductors, suggesting a painful rotation from hardware to software and financials is well underway. 📉

AFTER THE BELL
The SpaceX IPO Machine Is Starting to Spin

The most anticipated public offering in market history is moving from rumor to logistics, with SpaceX reportedly targeting a confidential IPO filing as soon as this week, a valuation of up to $1.75 trillion, and a fundraise of $50B to $75B that would dwarf every IPO ever completed. News dropped Monday that Morgan Stanley was routing retail through E*Trade, sending other broker stock prices down.

The RIP: Would surpass Saudi Aramco’s $29B record IPO; Musk considering allocating up to 30% of shares to retail investors vs. the typical 5% to 10%; Bank of America targeting family offices; UBS handling global institutional; Citi coordinating international retail; Robinhood and SoFi reportedly cut from the deal per CNBC.

“Just as people in the control room hold their breath in the final moments before the launch of a rocket into space, investors are eagerly counting down the days to the likely take-off date for SpaceX’s IPO,” Dan Coatsworth, head of markets at AJ Bell, said.

The Robinhood and SoFi cut is the most immediately tradeable piece of this story. Both stocks pitched hard for a piece of the most high-profile retail distribution event in years and came away empty. Retail investors wanting pre-IPO exposure right now have five listed options: $DXYZ, $VCX, $ARKVX, $XOVR, and $RONB, all of which hold SpaceX in their portfolios at varying weights.

The critical caveat: most secondary market and fund vehicles do not give you direct SpaceX equity. You are buying a stake in a fund or SPV that owns SpaceX, which means you pay management fees, trade at premiums to NAV, and may not actually hold the underlying shares you think you do when the company goes public. 🚀

In SPCE related news, Virgin Galactic’s Liquidity Race: Space tourism pioneer $SPCE climbed 15%% in after-hours trading despite a revenue miss, as investors focused on narrowing losses and the firm’s aggressive 2026 testing schedule for its next-generation fleet.

$0.98 net loss per share vs. $1.05 loss estimate. $312K revenue vs. $495K consensus. $338M total cash and marketable securities remaining. 🚀

STOCKS
Fannie and Freddie Catch a 10x Thesis 🏚️ 

Two of the most boring stocks became the most talked-about trade Monday. Both $FNMA and $FMCC surged after Bill Ackman and Michael Burry both went public over the weekend arguing the mortgage giants are the most asymmetric opportunity in the market right now.

The RIP: $FNMA ( ▲ 51.24% ) hit a daily high of $3.24 vs. a $2.14 prior close; with $FMCC ( ▲ 47.26% ) both stocks are down more than -50% year-to-date before today’s move; Ackman called shares “stupidly cheap” with 10x upside to mid-$40s on Sunday; Burry confirmed buying on the way down from $6-$7 and again in the $4s; Bloomberg reported Friday that Trump directed both GSEs to purchase $200B in mortgage loans.

Burry responded directly to Ackman’s post, writing that it was rare to see this kind of setup in the current market. Both men agree the thesis is real but Burry tempered near-term expectations on Sunday’s Substack, writing the Iran war and higher rates have pushed any IPO to 2027 at the earliest.

Retail holders of $FNMA and $FMCC are buying a policy trade, not a business one. These two mortgage giants are government-run companies. They don’t originate loans, they just underpin them buying mortgage-backed securities from banks and lenders, to sell to investors. Remember The Big Short? These are some of the biggest repackagers of those products that went so wrong in ‘08. Uncle Sam paid out nearly $200B to keep them up, and has run them since, but recently Trump has pushed for their privatization and lower mortgage rates in general. Ackman and Burry say these giants are approaching real profitability again.

Every admin says they want to make them private, which is the catch, but if Mr. Short himself thinks they might actually IPO in a year, it;s worth looking at the possibility.

Join the conversation:

SPONSORED BY VIRTUIX
Virtuix ($VTIX) Signs U.S. Navy Agreement for AI-Driven VR Treadmill

Virtuix Inc. (NASDAQ: VTIX) signed an agreement with the U.S. Navy to evaluate its “Omni” 360-degree treadmill technology for military training.

Through its Virtual Terrain Walk (VTW) platform, Virtuix enables users to physically navigate AI-generated, photorealistic virtual environments, introducing a next level of realism for defense training and mission planning.

This marks Virtuix’s first agreement with the U.S. Navy and builds on expanding defense traction across the U.S. Army, Air Force, and Marine Corps.

$VTIX is gaining momentum:
•Defense Expansion: Growing pipeline across four U.S. military branches
•AI-Driven Platform: VTW transforms real-world environments into navigable 3D simulations
•Dual-Use Strategy: Consumer and defense markets support long-term growth

With increasing military interest, Virtuix continues to expand beyond gaming into high-value defense contracts.

*3rd Party Ad. Not an offer or recommendation by Stocktwits. See disclosure here.

MACRO NEWS
Powell Gives Markets a Hall Pass on Rate Hikes ✏️ 

The Fed chair walked into a Harvard classroom Monday and gave investors the most welcome message they have heard in weeks, saying interest rates are in a “good place” and that the oil price surge has not significantly changed the Fed’s inflation outlook, sending rate hike odds collapsing.

The RIP: Fed funds rate held at 3.5% to 3.75% last meeting, Monday the market shifted from pricing a hike in late 2027 back to pricing cuts following Powell’s Monday remarks; with core PCE running around 3%; tariffs adding an estimated 0.5% to 1% to inflation on a one-time basis; Brent above $108 Monday. It was the best day for bonds since August.

“We’re not really facing it yet, because we don’t know what the economic effects will be, but we’ll certainly be mindful of that broader context when we make that decision,” Powell said at Harvard.

Powell’s logic is the same playbook central banks have used in every oil shock since 1973: look through the energy spike because by the time rate hikes work their way through the economy, the shock is usually over.

The risk is that this war is certainly not over, Brent is still above $100, and Powell has six weeks left in his term before Kevin Warsh takes over with his own views. Holders of rate-sensitive names like $XLF, $XLRE, and mortgage-adjacent plays got the relief they needed today, but the thesis only holds if April 6 brings a ceasefire and oil comes back down. 🏛️

TRENDING STOCKS
Pops & Drops

• $GLND ( ▲ 37.15% )  Greenland Energy: ripped +37% after commencing trading on the NASDAQ

• $NOW ( ▲ 5.59% )  ServiceNow: jumped +6% after software demand optimism

• $U ( ▲ 5.6% )  Unity: popped +6% after retail sentiment turned bullish again

• $INSM ( ▲ 5.52% )  Insmed: climbed +6% after positive sector momentum boosted price

• $SYY ( ▼ 15.28% )  Sysco: tumbled -15% after $29B acquisition paused share buybacks

• $CIFR ( ▼ 12.59% )  Cipher Mining: cratered -13% from crypto mining revenue concerns

• $MU ( ▼ 9.88% )  Micron: fell -10% after aggressive spending plans spooked investors

• $TPL ( ▼ 8.67% )  Texas Pacific: slid -9% after energy sector weakness hit land

IN PARTNERSHIP WITH VIRTUIX
Virtuix ($VTIX) Secures Key Navy Agreement, Expanding Defense Footprint

Virtuix (NASDAQ: VTIX) has signed its first agreement with the U.S. Navy. Through a research and development partnership, the U.S. Navy will evaluate Virtuix’s Virtual Terrain Walk (VTW) technology for military training and simulation.

Leveraging AI-driven 3D reconstruction, VTW enables personnel to physically move through photorealistic virtual environments, in any direction and without boundaries, for immersive training and mission planning.

The Navy agreement builds on an expanding defense footprint since Virtuix’s Nasdaq debut in January 2026, including sales to the U.S. Army, Air Force, and Marine Corps.

By bridging high-end consumer gaming with AI-powered military training, Virtuix is executing a dual-use strategy across two high-growth markets, positioning $VTIX with multiple avenues for growth in the second half of fiscal 2026.

*3rd Party Ad. Not an offer or recommendation by Stocktwits. See disclosure here.

ST MEDIA
Top Stocktwits Stories 🗞️ 

WHAT’S ON DECK
Tomorrow’s Top Things 📋

Macro: S&P/CS HPI Composite – 20 n.s.a. (MoM) (Jan) (9:00 AM ET), Chicago PMI (Mar) (9:45 AM ET), JOLTS Job Openings (Feb) (10:00 AM ET), CB Consumer Confidence (Mar) (10:00 AM ET), Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Barr Speaks (3:00 PM ET), API Weekly Crude Oil Stock (4:30 PM ET), FOMC Member Bowman Speaks (5:10 PM ET). 📊
Pre-Market Earnings: $IMNN Imunon Inc, $TONX TON Strategy Co., $XTNT Xtant Medical Holdings Inc, $DTST Data Storage Corp, $CSAI Cloudastructure, Inc., $AIRO Airo Group Holdings Inc, $AMS American Shared Hospital Services, $MLSS Milestone Scientific Inc., +1 more. ☀️
After-Market Earnings: $NKE, $WKHS, $BYND Beyond Meat Inc, $BTBT Bit Digital Inc, $NBY Novabay Pharmaceuticals Inc, $LAES SEALSQ Corp, $BGMS Bio Green Med Solution Inc., $USAR Usa Rare Earth Inc Class A, +16 more. 🌙

P.S. You can listen to all of these earnings calls on Stocktwits.

Links That Don’t Suck 🌐

📈 The 2 reasons oil prices are surging as the Iran War enters its 5th week

🤑  Crypto stocks at ‘big discounts,’ may be nearing bottom: Bernstein analysts

😨 Trump threatens ‘completely obliterating’ Iranian infrastructure as possible escalation looms

🏠️ Major US airports return to normal as TSA workers get paid

💰️ China suppliers warn of higher prices for Americans due to Strait of Hormuz closure

📺️ Fed Chair Powell sees no threat of private credit ‘contagion,’ says interest rates are in a ‘good place’

Get In Touch 📬

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