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OVERVIEW

Bitcoin By The Numbers: Stats, Data, And Probabilities 🔢 

source: giphy

Hope you had a Merry Christmas! Today’s Litepaper is chalk full of some facts and data that will make your bathroom breaks away from family that much more fun. 🚽 

BITCOIN
Bitcoin In 2024 By The Numbers

Bitcoin put on a show in 2024. Here’s the quick and dirty breakdown:

Overall Yearly Performance

• Started at $42,272.50 in January.

• Wrapped up December at $97,121.10. (for the purposes of this data and the holiday, December 21, 2024 is used as the cutoff date for 2024).

• That’s roughly a 130% climb. Not exactly timid.

Ranking The Months (Bullish To Bearish)

1. February: +43.66%

2. November: +37.17%

3. March: +16.61%

4. May: +11.31%

5. October: +10.96%

6. September: +7.39%

7. July: +2.98%

8. December: +0.74%

9. January: +0.73%

10. June: -7.07%

11. August: -8.74%

12. April: -14.95%

Green vs. Red

• 9 months ended in the green (January, February, March, May, July, September, October, November, December).

• 3 months slipped into the red (April, June, August).

Quarters Ranked (Bullish To Bearish)

1. Q1: +61%

2. Q4: +48.87%

3. Q3: +1.63%

4. Q2: -10.71%

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BITCOIN
A Land Of Probabilities 🔢 

Below are some extra statistical nuggets based on Bitcoin’s year-over-year performance from 2013 through 2024. Buckle up for some probability fun.

Probability: Red Year → Next Year Green

• Years That Ended Red: 2014, 2018, 2022

• What Happened The Following Year? 2015 (+35%), 2019 (+94%), 2023 (+155%)

• All 3 red years were followed by a green year.

• Probability: 100% (3 out of 3)

On average, if a year ended in the red, the next year’s return was about +95% (the mean of +35%, +94%, +155%).

Probability: Green Year → Next Year Red

• Green Years With A Following Year: 2013, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2023

  • (We exclude 2024→2025 because 2025 data doesn’t exist yet.)

• Transitions To Red:

  • 2013 → 2014: −60%

  • 2017 → 2018: −73%

  • 2021 → 2022: −64%

• 3 out of 8.

• Probability: 37.5%

Meaning, if Bitcoin has a green year, there’s still roughly a 38% chance the next year could get ugly. Conversely, a green year is 62.5% likely to be followed by another green year.

Averages After Red vs. After Green ⚖️ 

• Average Return After A Red Year: +95%

  • (From the 3 instances: 35%, 94%, 155%)

• Average Return After A Green Year: +220%

  • (From the 8 instances: −60%, +124%, +1,338%, −73%, +302%, +60%, −64%, +129%…and yes, that wild +1,338% in 2017 → 2018 skews the average upward.)

NEWS
10 Year Performance: Best To Worst 🎭️ 

2017

• Change: +1,338% (roughly)

• Insane bull run. If you timed this perfectly, congrats on your new yacht.

2020

• Change: +302%

• Nobody told Bitcoin about the global meltdown. It just soared anyway.

2023

• Change: +155%

• That’s what one might call an “oops, we did it again” bounce.

2024

• Change: +129%

• Didn’t match 2017’s mania, but still made skeptics question their life choices.

2016

• Change: +124%

• The halving year that hinted at bigger fireworks ahead.

2019

• Change: +94%

• A strong bounce after 2018’s slump—probably made you forget that crypto winter.

2021

• Change: +60%

• Bitcoin snagged a new all-time high above $68k mid-year…before calling it quits into December.

2015

• Change: +35%

• Modest, but after 2014’s meltdown, folks were just happy it wasn’t zero.

2014

• Change: -60%

• The year Mt. Gox died and gloom reigned supreme.

2022

• Change: -64%

• The year of big bankruptcies and a monstrous reset.

2018

• Change: -73%

• A nuclear crypto winter—wiped out most of 2017’s euphoria.

NEWS
Notable Runs 🏃 

Longest Monthly Green Streak: 6 Months 🟢 

It’s happened three times:

September 2016 – February 2017

October 2020 – March 2021

October 2023 – March 2024

Each run lasted half a year of relentless gains—basically the kind of stretch that turns “I should buy more” into “I should refinance my house for more BTC…right?”

Longest Run of Consecutive Losing Months 🏃 

August 2018 Through January 2019

• 6 straight negative months

  • August 2018: −9.00%

  • September 2018: −5.67%

  • October 2018: −4.06%

  • November 2018: −36.54%

  • December 2018: −8.18%

  • January 2019: −7.34%

That half-year stretch went beyond mere “crypto winter”—it felt like an ice age. This cluster of red months also erased most of the euphoria from Bitcoin’s 2017 run. 🧊 

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