NEWS
Consumer Confidence Cruises Higher

Source: Tenor.com

Bulls remain in charge ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday, with money rotating back into tech and several other large/mega-cap leaders. Bitcoin is taking a break from flirting with the elusive $100,000 level, but risk appetite in the equity markets remains intact as we all prep for the final trading days of November. 👀

Today’s issue covers the surge in consumer confidence, popular retail and tech earnings results, and an explanation of the latest Chinese pump-and-dump. 📰

Here’s the S&P 500 heatmap. 9 of 11 sectors closed green, with utilities (+1.59%) leading and materials (-0.75%) lagging.

Source; Finviz.com

And here are the closing prices: 

Most bullish/bearish symbols on Stocktwits at the close: 📈 $HSAI, $AMBA, $VSEE, $JWN, $ADSK 📉 $HPQ, $SMTC, $STLA, $RMCO, $GPUS*

*If you’re a business and want to access this data via our API, email us.

STOCKS
Americans See Clear Skies Ahead 🤔 

The Conference Board’s first consumer confidence survey since the election provided a fresh perspective on Americans’ attitudes toward the economy.

November’s consumer confidence index ticked up 2.1 points to 111.7, led by a sharp increase in the “present situation index” and a nominal uptick in expectations. It’s now at the top of the range that’s prevailed over the last two years, driven by consumers feeling more optimistic about the current job market.

With the election over, part of the sharp jump in the “present situation” and “expectations” indexes likely came from a perception of conditions rather than actual ones. As we know, people’s views of the economy and market are highly politicized. However, the fact that this move aligns with the recent trend reiterates an overarching theme of improving “vibes.” 👍️ 

Source: Conference-Board.org

Interestingly, the perceived likelihood of a U.S. recession continues to fall, even as the labor market softens. This category reached the lowest level since the survey began asking the question in July 2022. 🧑‍💼 

Source: Conference-Board.org

From a stock market perspective, the percentage of Americans who believe stock prices will move higher over the next 12 months reached a record high of 56% (since the inception of this survey). We’ve referenced the overwhelming optimism around U.S. stocks for several months, and that trend shows no sign of slowing down. 🤩 

Source: Callie Cox Media, LLC

Meanwhile, the Fed’s November meeting minutes showed confidence that inflation is easing and the labor market is strong, allowing for further interest rate cuts (at a gradual pace). Markets expect the Fed to cut another 25 bps in December, but the picture becomes a lot murkier into 2025 when a shaky labor market and Trump’s policy plans (e.g., tariffs) add uncertainty to the mix. 😬 

Overall, the minutes showed that policymakers still have not identified an appropriate “neutral rate” or how quickly to lower rates. It continues to walk a tightrope of maximizing employment while bringing inflation down to 2%. It’s been so far, so good, but the recent fiscal shakeup could cause some turbulence in early 2025.

Still, stocks continue to climb the “wall of worry,” with retail investors and traders leading the charge into 2025. To the moon, baby. 🚀 

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EARNINGS
A Retail & Tech Earnings Roundup 👀 

Retail: It was a mixed day for retailers, with more bad news than good.

Kohl’s (-17%): The department store’s third-quarter earnings fell short of estimates, hurt by weak apparel and footwear sales. Net sales fell 8.8% YoY, with the company reducing guidance again. CEO Tom Kingsbury is also stepping down on January 15th, 2025, as Ashley Buchanan becomes the third CEO to step into the role since 2018. 🏬

Guess (-12%): The mall-based retailer remains a mess after cutting its full-year guidance and posting a third-quarter loss, citing slowed traffic in its Asian and North American stores. Investors remain concerned about its turnaround potential. 📉 

Best Buy (-5%): The consumer electronic retailer reduced its full-year sales guidance after its third-quarter earnings missed expectations. Consumers continue to seek value when making discretionary purchases, weighing on comparable store sales in the U.S. and internationally. 📺️ 

Abercrombie & Fitch (-5%:) The apparel company offered upbeat guidance for its holiday quarter. Third-quarter results topped expectations, and it raised full-year guidance. Analysts remain cautious despite management eliminating the “increasingly uncertain environment” language used last quarter. 👕 

Burlington Stores (-2%): Total revenue jumped 10.5% YoY, leading to upbeat third-quarter results. However, warm weather has eaten into cold weather category sales, dampening the company’s outlook. 🌤️ 

Nordstrom (-1%): Clothing and shoe purchases lifted performance, helping deliver a third-quarter beat and improved full-year sales outlook. Sales of women’s apparel and activewear rose double digits YoY, as its bet on select customers pays off. 🧘 

Dick’s Sporting Goods (-1%): The sporting goods retailer’s shares gave back an initial 6% jump as investors digested an earnings and revenue beat. Management reiterated the cautious environment but harped on its solid execution. ⚽️ 

Tech: The sector mostly disappointed investors, with just one standout to the upside.

Ambarella (+22%): The AI semiconductor company’s third-quarter results topped expectations and raised its outlook. Record revenue for its edge AI interface products drove the beat and upbeat outlook. 🤖 

CrowdStrike (-3%): The cybersecurity giant’s weaker-than-expected earnings forecast weighed on shares as investors look for signs that the company has fully recovered from the flawed update that crashed computers globally in July. 🛡️ 

HPQ (-7%): The personal computer and printing company’s current-quarter outlook missed expectations, offsetting its third-quarter beat. Revenue growth remains the chief concern, with both its personal systems and printing divisions growing just 2% and 1% YoY, respectively. 😴 

AutoDesk (-9%): The software company beat Wall Street estimates but announced the appointment of a new chief financial officer (CFO). The overhang, from its internal accounting issues and tepid growth, continues to weigh on the stock. 😐️ 

Workday (-11%): The human resources and finance software company’s results beat expectations, but its fourth-quarter outlook was lighter than anticipated. 🙃 

Dell Technologies (-11%): Revenue was lighter than anticipated despite AI server orders hitting a record $3.6 billion and its pipeline growing over 50% YoY. Current-quarter revenue guidance was well below analyst estimates, driven by cautious customer spending for non-AI categories like PC and storage solutions. 💻️ 

3D Systems (-16%): The 3D-printing company’s loss was smaller than anticipated, but revenues missed estimates. This industry’s lack of growth has investors focused elsewhere until it can show meaningful signs of a sustained turnaround. 👎️ 

STOCKS
What In The $PGHL Just Happened? 🤯 

Manipulation in low-float stocks is nothing new, but over the last few years, there’s been an uptick in activity surrounding offshore entities listed on U.S. exchanges. Many of these are based in Hong Kong or other parts of China. 

The latest is Primega Group ($PHGL), which surged 920% and then collapsed 89% after hours. 📉 

While we don’t have time to go into the exact mechanics and full story here, we wanted to circulate a thread by Nate Anderson of Hindenburg Research, which gives a high-level overview of how these operate. He’s been talking about these situations since 2022, so we’d say he’s got a pretty solid handle on the situation.

Enjoy the wild story below, and trade safely out there. 🫡 

Today, a short-seller ‘liquidation’ scam:  

Primega Group, $PGHL, is a Nasdaq-listed, Hong-Kong based entity that some some had likely shorted due to it being an obvious scam.  

The stock spiked 108% today on no news and was halted all day after being unable to settle on an… x.com/i/web/status/1…

— Nate Anderson (@NateHindenburg)
9:29 PM • Nov 26, 2024

WHAT’S ON DECK
Tomorrow’s Top Things 📋

Economic data: Core PCE Price Index (8:30 am ET), Durable Goods (8:30 am ET), GDP Growth Rate (8:30 am ET), Personal Income/Spending (8:30 am ET), Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 am ET), Chicago PMI (9:45 am ET), Pending Home Sales (10:00 am ET). 📊

Pre-Market Earnings: Frontline ($FRO), Golden Ocean Group ($GOGL), X Financial ($XYF) 🛏️

After-Hour Earnings: None — Happy Thanksgiving Eve! 🎧

P.S. You can listen to all of these earnings calls and more straight from the Stocktwits app or website. You’ll find them on the calendar page and individual symbol pages once they’re set to begin! We’ll see you there. 👍

Links That Don’t Suck 🌐

🤑 Five airlines made $12.4 billion on seat fees over the last six years

🛰️ SpaceX gets FCC green light for Starlink direct-to-phone deal with T-Mobile

◀️ Walmart, the nation’s largest private employer, rolls back DEI under pressure

😡 Tesla’s exclusion from a new EV proposal could ignite a ‘Game of Thrones’ style feud

⚠️ Leaked Morgan Stanley documents reveal 1 in 4 ultrawealthy clients raise a red flag

🚨 Severe weather threatens Thanksgiving travel for millions as officials warn of delays

🤝 Arrowhead Pharma stock soars on $825M Sarepta licensing deal: retail activity hits year-high

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