OVERVIEW

Every BTC Death Cross Analyzed 💀 

Before we dive in, here’s today’s crypto market heatmap:

Source: Santiment

And here’s a look at crypto’s total market and altcoin market cap charts:

Source: TradingView

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NEWS IN THREE SENTENCES
The Death Cross ☠️ 

Have you seen this word pop up over the past couple weeks: death cross? Do you know what the Death Cross is? Financial media loves the Death Cross because, well, because it has the word death in it. 💀 

And death is just something people don’t like very much.

Slap a thumbnail showing some market genius with that stupid, mouth-breathing look of terror and let the panic-clicks roll in. 😨

But what is it? Simply put, it’s when the 50 day moving average (usually a simple moving average, SMA) moves below the 200 day moving average:

BTCUSD Daily Chart – Click to enlarge.

Bitcoin experienced it’s twelfth death cross on its daily chart two weeks ago – and it’s got people worried. Should you be? 🤷

How bad is a death cross? That’s where the Litepaper comes in.

Today, we’re looking at every death cross Bitcoin has ever had on its daily chart in the history of ever, ever since the beginning. Right from the start. 😨

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
10 Cold Hard Facts About BTC’s Death Crosses 🧊

BTCUSD Daily Chart – Click to enlarge.

Want the TL;DR version before all the nitty gritty deets? Here you go:

1. September Doom Loop

   • Four out of the twelve Bitcoin Death Crosses happened in September (2011, 2014, 2015, and 2023). Apparently, Bitcoin loves celebrating Halloween a bit early.

2. Déjà Vu Date (April 7)

   • Bitcoin experienced Death Crosses twice on the exact same date (April 7, 2014, and again April 7, 2025).

3. Longest Wait Ever (389 days)

   • Twice—after Death Crosses in March 2018 and January 2022—it took an agonizing 389 days for Bitcoin’s chart to finally flip bullish again.

4. Short-Term Panic, Long-Term Payday

   • While the average 30-day return after Death Crosses is negative (-3.3%), the average 1-year return skyrockets to +88.9%.

5. Best Bounce Ever (+715%)

   • The March 26, 2020 Death Cross saw Bitcoin jump a staggering +715% in just one year, turning one of the scariest signals into crypto’s best-ever comeback.

6. Golden Cross Express:

   • The shortest time Bitcoin spent below a Death Cross was just 43 days (September 14, 2015).

7. Nearly a Coin Flip (Duration Under 90 Days)

   • Roughly half (5 out of 11) Death Crosses resolved in under 90 days, suggesting Death Crosses are about as predictable as flipping a coin.

8. Worst Immediate Crash (-34%)

   • Bitcoin’s nastiest short-term reaction was a painful -34% loss in the 30 days following the September 4, 2014 Death Cross. Ouch.

9. 180-Day Comeback Kid (+167%)

   • After the September 12, 2023 Death Cross, Bitcoin delivered its strongest-ever 180-day post-Death Cross gain of +167%, mocking anyone who panicked early.

10. Death Cross ≠ Death Sentence

    • Despite the scary name, 7 of the 11 fully measured Death Cross events ended with positive returns by the one-year mark, proving Bitcoin has a flair for the dramatic—but rarely stays down for the count.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Running the Numbers 📉

Here’s what the average returns look like across all 11 Death Crosses with full data:

• Average return after 30 days: -3.3%

  • (Best: +37% on March 30, 2018; Worst: -34% on September 4, 2014)

• Average return after 90 days: +26.2%

  • (Best: +88% on September 14, 2015; Worst: -15% on September 28, 2011)

• Average return after 180 days: +21.9%

  • (Best: +167% on September 12, 2023; Worst: -53% on January 14, 2022)

• Average return after 1 year: +88.9%

  • (Best: +715% on March 26, 2020; Worst: -53% on September 4, 2014)

In short, immediate reactions to a Death Cross are usually negative or mildly bearish—but as you extend the timeline out to three months or beyond, Bitcoin tends to shake off the doom and gloom, often with impressive rebounds. 🦘 

How Long Does the Pain Last? ⏳

Here’s another interesting tidbit: The Death Cross doesn’t usually hang around for too long. Of the 11 fully measured Death Cross events:

• 5 lasted fewer than 90 days until a Golden Cross brought relief.

• 6 lasted longer than 90 days, with the longest pain session stretching 389 days twice (from March 2018 and January 2022).

In other words, it’s essentially a coin-flip scenario whether the Death Cross clears out quickly or overstays its unwelcome visit. 🪙

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
The Nitty Gritty On Each Death Cross ☠️ 

Below are all the death crosses for BTC between 2009 and April 21, 2025, followed by their respective 30 day, 90 day, 180 day, and one year performance post death cross. ☑️ 

1. September 28, 2011 – $4

• 30 Days: -33%

• 90 Days: -15%

• 180 Days: -5%

• 1 Year: +156%

• Next Golden Cross: 134 days later (February 9, 2012)

2. April 7, 2014 – $446

• 30 Days: +13%

• 90 Days: +64%

• 180 Days: -27%

• 1 Year: -43%

• Next Golden Cross: 95 days later (July 11, 2014)

3. September 4, 2014 – $489

• 30 Days: -34%

• 90 Days: +23%

• 180 Days: -42%

• 1 Year: -53%

• Next Golden Cross: 314 days later (July 15, 2015)

4. September 14, 2015 – $230

• 30 Days: +10%

• 90 Days: +88%

• 180 Days: +78%

• 1 Year: +164%

• Next Golden Cross: 43 days later (October 27, 2015)

5. March 30, 2018 – $6,835

• 30 Days: +37%

• 90 Days: -14%

• 180 Days: -6%

• 1 Year: -40%

• Next Golden Cross: 389 days later (April 23, 2019)

6. October 26, 2019 – $9,260

• 30 Days: -23%

• 90 Days: -9%

• 180 Days: -19%

• 1 Year: +41%

• Next Golden Cross: 115 days later (February 18, 2020)

7. March 26, 2020 – $6,753

• 30 Days: +12%

• 90 Days: +38%

• 180 Days: +56%

• 1 Year: +715%

• Next Golden Cross: 56 days later (May 21, 2020)

8. June 19, 2021 – $35,496

• 30 Days: -13%

• 90 Days: +33%

• 180 Days: +34%

• 1 Year: -42%

• Next Golden Cross: 88 days later (September 15, 2021)

9. January 14, 2022 – $43,092

• 30 Days: -3%

• 90 Days: -7%

• 180 Days: -53%

• 1 Year: -51%

• Next Golden Cross: 389 days later (January 14, 2023)

10. September 12, 2023 – $25,842

• 30 Days: +4%

• 90 Days: +60%

• 180 Days: +167%

• 1 Year: +122% (projected)

• Next Golden Cross: 48 days later (October 12, 2023)

11. August 10, 2024 – $60,964

• 30 Days: -6%

• 90 Days: +26%

• 180 Days: +58%

• 1 Year: N/A (time machine not included)

• Next Golden Cross: 79 days later (November 8, 2024)

12. April 7, 2025 – $79,161

• N/A.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
So, Should We Panic? 🤔

History says: not exactly. Death Crosses, scary as they sound, aren’t reliable enough to serve as definitive crash indicators. Short-term volatility? Yes. Guaranteed disaster? Hardly. 🧠 

The numbers actually tell us that betting against Bitcoin on a Death Cross alone would’ve been a losing game, particularly over longer timelines.

Bitcoin consistently rebounded with remarkable resilience following most Death Cross events. While the cross might signal turbulence, it has historically been an opportunity – not a doomsday prophecy.

If you’re looking for an ironclad doomsday omen, try searching for a broken crystal ball on eBay. If you’re looking for a quick stat you can toss at your crypto buddies over dinner, at least you’ve got one more bit of trivia in your pocket.

Thanks for reading. Now go find some coffee. Or something stronger. 🥃 

EMAIL ME
Tell Me What You Want 🔊 

Quick note here: Let me know what you’d like to see more of in the Litepaper.

More charts? More on-chain analytics? More data? Let me know! 🎇 

E-mail me here: jmorgan@stocktwits.com

LINKS
Links That Don’t Suck 🔗

🪙 Coinbase derivatives announces listing of CFTC-regulated futures for XRP: what next?

🏃 Investors flee to Bitcoin and gold as Trump’s tariffs shake markets

⭕️ Circle, BitGo to apply for bank charters; Coinbase, Paxos may follow suit: WSJ

🤯 Charles Schwab CEO says firm looking to launch spot crypto trading within 12 months

🚤 ARK adds staked Solana to two tech ETFs

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