Good News! The War Just Ended For Real This Time
CLOSING BELL
Happy Friday!
The market climbed big time, with good news about the Strait of Hormuz: It’s actually opening!
This time it was an announcement from Iran, not the White House, that sealed the deal. President Trump said Tehran agreed to shutter their nuclear program indefinitely. Call me a hater for not believing a blockade would work.
The Dow was up nearly 900 points, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 breaking 1% on the day, and a whopping 4% and 6% for the week. The only thing down was oil, tanking nearly 9% on the day. Segments of the economy that rely on fuel, which is all, were up big, but consumer discretionary and industrials led the way. Cruise lines and aerospace were enjoying the lower fuel prices.
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SAVED BY THE BELL
Hormuz Panic Unwinds 🛢️
The news this week kept getting better about the Iran war, already on pause Monday with a ceasefire.
Oil got hit hard on Friday after Iran said the Strait of Hormuz was open to commercial traffic. The move reversed a war premium that had built quickly as traders priced in the risk of a prolonged supply shock. The market jumped right back to where it was when the war began.
The RIP: $Crude Futures fell 11.1% to about $81 and $Brent dropped 11% to below $89 after both benchmarks started the week above $100. The reported ceasefire runs 10 days, beginning Thursday at 5 p.m. ET.
For energy holders, this is the clearest sign yet that crude is trading headlines before fundamentals. If the Strait stays open and diplomacy holds, refiners, airlines, and transport names get relief, while oil producers lose the geopolitical bid that inflated prices earlier this week. The risk is that Tehran has not confirmed Trump’s nuclear claims, so another shipping threat could put the premium right back into crude. 🛢️
It’s something you really have to see to believe: Friday, Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi wrote on Twitter that their part in halting traffic in the strait is over.
Twitter tweet
MACRO HAPPENINGS
Hormuz Reopening Triggers “War Trade” Unwind 🪢
A sudden pivot toward diplomacy in the Middle East sent shockwaves through the market on Friday, April 17, as the announcement of a ceasefire and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz evaporated the geopolitical risk premium that had propped up energy and chemical valuations. The news sparked a massive rotation: as Brent crude tumbled 10% toward $81, investors dumped domestic “inflation hedges” like $OXY and $DOW to chase relief in consumer-sensitive growth names like $CVNA.
The RIP: The energy sector led the decline with $VLO dropping 7.45%, $APA falling 5.75%, and $OXY sliding 5.39% following an IEA report forecasting the first annual contraction in global oil demand since 2020. Simultaneously, chemical giants $LYB and $DOW plummeted 11.79% and 10.82% respectively, as the normalization of global shipping lanes erased the cost advantage North American NGL-based producers enjoyed over oil-reliant international competitors. Conversely, $CVNA surged 7.44% as the prospect of lower fuel costs and a 5-for-1 stock split scheduled for May 7 drew retail buyers back to the used-car platform.
Holders should watch the $80 level on Brent crude; a sustained move below this would likely trigger further margin compression for chemical producers and hit the profitability of domestic drillers. For $CVNA, the rally suggests the “short carvana on oil spikes” trade is being forcefully unwound, though its 33x P/E ratio leaves little room for earnings disappointment on April 29. Stocktwits post volume for $OXY spiked 140% as traders debated the cycle peak, while $CVNA saw a 12% jump in watchlist adds as retail sentiment turned 89% bullish. 🚢
PREVIEW NEWS
Big tech lines up after Netflix’s stumble 📡
The streaming giant’s post-earnings selloff Thursday set the table for a loaded week of tech reports, with Tesla, Intel, and IBM all stepping into the spotlight after a historic rally that pushed the IGV to its best week since 2001 and sent the XLK to an all-time high.
The RIP: $TSLA reports Wednesday after the bell, seen at $0.40 EPS on $23B in revenue with deliveries near 366K units. $INTC reports Thursday, seen at roughly breakeven EPS on $12.3B, with the 18A yield story on trial. $IBM reports Wednesday, seen at $1.81 EPS on $15.65B, with AI consulting bookings carrying the narrative. $GE kicks it off Tuesday before the bell at $1.60 EPS on $10.65B, leaning on aftermarket engine services.
The setup is unusual: semiconductor and software names just posted historic weekly gains, with $INTC up 55% in April alone and $ORCL, $AMD, and $MSFT all logging their best weeks in decades. Now those same names have to prove the rally wasn’t just short covering and sentiment. Netflix showed what happens when numbers don’t match the mood, and the guidance miss hit harder than the earnings beat. Tesla is the biggest test of whether the AI-as-auto-company rerating holds up under actual deliveries and margins, while Intel has to show that the Google and Musk partnerships are real orders, not just headlines. 📡
TRENDING STOCKS
Pops & Drops
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$DLTR ( ▲ 6.0% ) Dollar Tree: up +6.01% after rotation into discount retail names
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$BLDR ( ▲ 5.48% ) Builders FirstSource: up +5.48% after housing starts beat estimates
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$IFF ( ▲ 5.3% ) Intl Flavors: up +5.20% after peer upgrade boosts sentiment
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$RVTY ( ▲ 5.03% ) Revvity: up +5.06% after bullish healthcare sector flow
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$ADI ( ▲ 4.99% ) Analog Devices: up +5.01% after industrial chip demand update
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$MPC ( ▼ 5.55% ) Marathon Petroleum: down -5.73% after refining margin concerns surface
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$ALB ( ▼ 8.29% ) Albemarle: down -8.41% after lithium oversupply report
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$CF ( ▼ 9.65% ) CF Industries: down -9.70% after natural gas price plunge
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$SLS ( ▲ 5.88% ) SELLAS Life Sciences: up +14% after positive Phase 3 update
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$IBRX ( ▲ 6.21% ) ImmunityBio: up +9% after FDA approval optimism
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$WULF ( ▲ 6.89% ) TeraWulf: down -12% after $350M convertible note offering
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$CIFR ( ▲ 11.71% ) Cipher Mining: down -11% after secondary stock offering
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$HTZ ( ▲ 6.45% ) Hertz: down -6% after rental fleet depreciation hit
THE CASHTAG AWARDS
The BIGGEST night in Finance. May 4th. NYSE.
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We’re offering a limited number of fully comped tickets for members who want to show up, represent, and help make this night as special as it should be.
Want to celebrate with us on May 4th?
Links That Don’t Suck 🌐
😨 Trump Says Iran Will Suspend Nuclear Program as Hormuz Reopens
🏠️ Fed Governor Waller says Iran war and labor market risks are keeping central bank on hold
💰️ AI chipmaker Cerebras set to file for IPO as soon as today
👀 Anthropic’s Dario Amodei to meet with White House about Mythos
Get In Touch 📬
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