OVERVIEW

Historical June Trends for BTC, ETH, XRP, DOGE, and ADA 💹 

Before we dive in, here’s today’s crypto market heatmap:

Source: Santiment

And here’s a look at crypto’s total market and altcoin market cap charts:

Source: TradingView

NEWS
The Mega June Thread For BTC, ETH, XRP, DOGE, and ADA

This will be great bathroom reading for the weekend. 🚽 

I’ve received wonderfully positive feedback on past breakdowns of how Bitcoin has performed on a monthly and quarterly basis.

Bitcoin isn’t enough though – ya’ll want more. And while I would love to breakdown down each and every altcoin possible, I am but one man with a wife and two kids and almost no life. So, in addition to Bitcoin, I’ve included Ethereum, XRP, Dogecoin, and Cardano.

But to see the XRP, Dogecoin, and Cardano performance, you’ll need to click here or scroll to the top of this email and click the ‘Read Online’

Hope you enjoy the data dump! 💩 

ANALYSIS
Bitcoin’s June: Could Be Worse 🫂

Note here about Bitcoin’s performance data: it might diverge from what you’ve seen before. Most recently, I’ve been limiting the data to the past 10 years for Bitcoin because the price fluctuations from first few years of Bitcoin’s existence were quite extreme. However, after feedback and requests from readers, I’ve now included the data as far back as investing[dot]com’s data goes.

Compared to other months of the year, June is the awkward cousin at the Bitcoin family reunion – overlooked, underrated, and quietly interesting.

So, let’s toss the formalities and dig into how Bitcoin has historically done in June, stack it against other months, and look at some data you’ve probably never seen/read before.

June’s Historical Performance 📆 

June clocks in with an average return of just 6.95%. Yeah, pretty “meh,” sitting 10th out of 12.

• 2011: 84.21% (Bitcoin going full YOLO mode)

• 2012: 29.15%

• 2013: -24.31%

• 2014: 1.15%

• 2015: 14.91%

• 2016: 26.68%

• 2017: 7.70%

• 2018: -14.71%

• 2019: 26.41%

• 2020: -3.38%

• 2021: -6.09%

• 2022: -37.32% (the bear market sucker punch)

• 2023: 11.97%

• 2024: -7.07%

• 2025: 0.00% (yeah, placeholder, calm down)

Breaking Down the Numbers

• Overall Average: 6.95%, a balancing act between big wins and bigger flops.

• Green Months: 9 out of 15, averaging a sweet 22.46%.

• Red Months: 6 out of 15, averaging a cringe-worthy -15.48%.

• Win Rate: 60% green. Not terrible, but it’s no April or October (both at 73%).

June’s performance is kind wonky and random: huge upside one year, nasty faceplant the next. Bottom line: when June’s good, it’s great; when it’s bad, wear a helmet.

How June Stacks Up Against Other Months 🔄 

• November: 39.66% (thanks, 2013’s insane 470.94%)

• April: 33.00% (11/15 positive months)

• October: 27.63% (consistent winner)

• May: 19.37%

• January: 14.31%

• February: 13.76%

• December: 11.31%

• March: 10.15%

• July: 7.56%

• June: 6.95%

• August: 0.44%

• September: -3.92% (only month to average negative, ouch)

June lands near the bottom but punches way above its weight when it’s green (22.46%), beating out July and August comfortably.

Seasonal Context 🗓️ 

June kicks off summer trading after the usually wild April-May moves:

• May (4th-ranked, 19.37%) sees big swings.

• July chills out a bit (7.56%, 9th-ranked).

Then summer gets sleepier with August and September’s lethargy, but ramps right back up in October and November. June’s basically the season’s gatekeeper – its outcome sets summer’s mood.

Stuff You Probably Didn’t Know 🧠 

June, the Sneaky Pivot Month 

June often hints at Bitcoin’s direction for the rest of the year:

• Big green Junes (like 2011, 2016, 2019) usually signal strong second halves.

• Rough Junes (2021, 2022) warn of weak summers.

Holy Cow Moment: June’s close could be your crystal ball for the second half. Good June? Bullish H2. Ugly June? Strap in for summer chop.

June’s Identity Crisis (Market Cycles) 

June’s personality shifts based on Bitcoin’s maturity:

• Early Days (2010–2013): Wild swings and YOLO trades.

• Middle Era (2014–2019): Moderate moves, Bitcoin goes mainstream.

• Recent Times (2020–2024): Lower volatility, thanks to grown-up institutions.

Holy Cow Moment: June’s getting tamer, turning into a more predictable entry point rather than the wild-west craziness of early Bitcoin.

Post-Halving June Oddities

Halving years add spice to June:

• 2012 and 2016 saw strong June gains around halving hype.

• 2020 and 2024 were underwhelming, but big Q4 rallies made up for it.

Holy Cow Moment: June usually chills right after halvings, setting the stage for bigger moves later. So chill out, immediate mooners; patience pays.

Red June, Not So Bad Actually 

June’s average red (-15.48%) sounds harsh, but it could be worse:

• January (-19.59%) and November (-17.48%) have uglier reds.

• June’s severe outlier (-37.32% in 2022) skews perceptions.

Holy Cow Moment: June’s dips can be juicy buys, typically shallow and quick to recover, unlike nasty Septembers.

Summer Liquidity Funk 

June feels summer’s liquidity drop, amplifying swings:

• Huge moves in either direction due to thin trading.

• Better than August (0.44%) or September (-3.92%), though.

Holy Cow Moment: June’s your last big swing-trade month before everyone hits the beach. Swing traders rejoice.

Practical Takeaways for the Crypto Curious 👍️ 

• Expect Chaos, Not Calm: June demands quick reflexes—it’s a trader’s playground.

• Watch June Closely: The month’s end sets the tone—bullish summer vibes or bearish boredom.

• Buy Those Dips: June’s red months offer tasty discounts—usually short-lived, good entry points.

• Adapt Your Strategy: Early Bitcoin was fireworks, now it’s slow-dance with institutions—adjust your moves accordingly.

Next time June rolls around, remember – it’s not just the start of BBQ season. It’s Bitcoin’s mid-year pulse-check. Pay attention, and you might just front-run everyone else’s “holy cow” moment.

Bitcoin’s historical data range for this analysis, August 2010 – May 30, 2025.

ANALYSIS
Ethereum’s June: No Please 😶 

June is definitely not one of Ethereum’s best months. It’s kind of like a chill, under-the-radar kids you knew and always thought, ‘this person might be a serial killer in the future’.

Spoiler: you were right. 🔪 

June’s Historical Performance 📆 

• 2016: -10.78% (classic early Ethereum jitters)

• 2017: 26.23% (smart contract mania begins)

• 2018: -21.67%

• 2019: 9.04%

• 2020: -2.67%

• 2021: -16.05%

• 2022: -44.95% (bear market brutality)

• 2023: 3.21%

• 2024: -8.63%

Breaking Down the Numbers

• Overall Average: -4.47%, leaning bearish but sneaky sometimes.

• Green Months: Just 3 out of 9 (2017, 2019, 2023), with a pretty solid 12.83% average.

• Red Months: A painful 6 out of 9, averaging a cringe-inducing -17.53%. Yeah, 2022’s -44.95% was rough.

• Win Rate: A meager 33%. Not exactly bragging rights compared to April and November’s 67%.

June pretty much sucks.

How June Stacks Up Against Other Months 🔄

1. April: 24.08% (consistent beast)

2. May: 24.01% (big swings, big wins)

3. November: 16.25% (juiced by huge outlier years)

4. January: 13.97%

5. February: 11.84%

6. October: 7.56%

7. July: 6.07%

8. December: 5.14%

9. March: 3.24%

10. September: 1.42%

11. June: -4.47%

12. August: -3.83% (peak summer boredom)

So June’s not a superstar, but hey, its green average (12.83%) can rival the better months when it does shine.

Seasonal Context 🗓️ 

• May (24.01%) is wild, setting up a June cooldown.

• July (6.07%) usually chills out.

After June, summer slips into the boredom of August and September, before October and November wake everyone back up. June sets the stage – keep an eye on it.

Stuff You Probably Didn’t Know 🧠

June Is Also A Sneaky Pivot Month

• Good Junes (2017, 2019) typically lead to killer second halves. Think 2017’s epic Q4.

• Bad Junes (2021, 2022) usually signal summer doldrums.

Holy Cow Moment: Watch June’s close – it can predict your Ethereum summer. Bullish June? Gear up for Q4. Bearish? Settle in for volatility.

June’s Love Affair With Upgrades 

Ethereum network upgrades influence June’s vibe:

• 2017 surged after Homestead excitement.

• 2022 tanked during Merge delays.

• 2024 dipped post-Dencun upgrade profit-taking.

Holy Cow Moment: Ethereum’s upgrades set June’s tone – stay tuned to dev chatter. Upgrade dips are usually buyable.

Post-Bitcoin Halving June Vibes 

Ethereum follows Bitcoin’s halving moods:

• 2016 and 2020 saw mild June dips post-halving, followed by strong Q4 rallies.

• 2024’s June dip also led to a November rally.

Holy Cow Moment: June after halvings usually chills, setting up Q4 fireworks. Patience pays off here.

Red June, Not Always Terrible

June’s average red month (-17.53%) stings but isn’t the worst:

• March (-22.07%) and February (-20.98%) dip deeper.

• June’s brutal 2022 skews the average, but other red months were mild.

Holy Cow Moment: June’s reds might be buyable dips, especially in healthier market environments.

Summer Liquidity Slump 

Lower summer trading volumes amplify June’s swings:

• Big moves, both good and bad, due to lower liquidity.

• Still a better win rate than August’s bleakness.

Holy Cow Moment: June’s volatility makes it prime swing-trading territory. Trade sharp, trade fast.

Practical Takeaways 🎯 

• Brace for Chaos: June’s volatility calls for nimble moves. Forget long-term comfy trades here.

• June’s Closing Bell Matters: Sets summer sentiment – green June bullish, red June cautious.

• Dips Can Be Your Friend: June reds often offer good entry points for H2 rebounds.

• Monitor Upgrades Closely: Ethereum upgrades sway June’s price action – stay alert.

June might not scream bullish, but it whispers critical insights. Keep an eye out – this overlooked month can offer sneaky gains or valuable heads-ups for your Ethereum strategy.

Ethereum’s historical data range for this analysis, April 2016 – May 330, 2025.

ANALYSIS
XRP’s June: Nope Nope Nope 🙅 

June isn’t exactly XRP’s favorite month. I mean, June closes in the red for XRP more than a UPS truck takes right turns (which is 90% of the time, it’s a real thing, they rarely take left turns, I read it on the internet once).

June’s Historical Performance 📆 

• 2015: 22.22% (the low-volume early days)

• 2016: 18.49%

• 2017: -0.36%

• 2018: -23.92%

• 2019: -9.46%

• 2020: -13.44%

• 2021: -32.37% (regulatory sucker punch)

• 2022: -21.24%

• 2023: -8.49%

• 2024: -8.02%

Breaking Down the Numbers

• Overall Average: -1.76%, mostly negative, but hiding some gems.

• Green Months: Just 2 out of 10 (2015, 2016), but they popped big, averaging 20.36%.

• Red Months: 8 out of 10, averaging a cringe-worthy -14.61%.

• Win Rate: A sad 20%. Definitely not bragging material compared to April’s 70%.

Like Ethereum, June just sucks.

How June Stacks Up Against Other Months 🔄

1. December: 46.43% (thank 2017’s insanity)

2. April: 29.85% (consistent wins)

3. November: 25.35% (boosted by monster years)

4. January: 11.38%

5. May: 5.90%

6. October: 0.77%

7. March: 0.37%

8. September: -0.45%

9. February: -0.90%

10. June: -1.76%

11. July: -2.37%

12. August: -4.62% (summer’s biggest drag)

June barely avoids the absolute bottom.

Seasonal Context 🗓️ 

• May (5.90%) keeps it spicy before June chills things down.

• July (-2.37%) settles further into summer doldrums.

Then summer snoozes through August and September, waking up just in time for October and November.

Stuff You Probably Didn’t Know 🧠

June, The Not So Secret Crystal Ball

June is closing in on a decade of failure.

• Only in the green twice out of the past 10 Junes.

Holy Cow Moment: June hasn’t closed in the green since 2018.

Post-Halving Breathers 

XRP mimics Bitcoin’s halving cycles somewhat:

• 2016 had rare positivity (18.49%) before Bitcoin’s halving.

• 2020 and 2024 dipped in June, setting stage for epic Q4 rallies.

Holy Cow Moment: June’s chill after halvings typically sets up Q4 fireworks. Good buying opportunities often arise.

June’s Red Months – Scary but Manageable 

June’s -14.61% average red month isn’t great but still beats:

• January (-17.49%) and August (-17.09%).

• Many red Junes were milder dips, easier rebounds.

Holy Cow Moment: June dips can be prime buying opportunities – short-lived compared to harsher months like August.

Summer Liquidity Blues 

June gets hit by lower liquidity, exaggerating moves:

• Big swings (good or bad) with fewer trades.

• Still better than August’s dreadful win rate (10%).

Holy Cow Moment: June offers your last volatile swings before summer boredom. Perfect if you like sharp trades.

Practical Takeaways 🎯 

• Prepare for Drama: June demands agile moves – no autopilot allowed.

• Dip-Buying Potential: June’s dips can be your best friend, especially post-halving.

Sometimes, just staying away is the best thing to do in June.

(Data from XRP Historical Data, Past performance yadda yadda, standard disclaimer applies.)

XRP’s historical data range for this analysis, February 2015 – May 30, 2025.

ANALYSIS
Dogecoin’s June: It’s The Worst 🤕 

June is Dogecoin’s least favorite month, hands down. If April and December are Doge’s wild party months, June’s more like a depressing Sunday hangover you wake up from in the ER.

June’s Historical Performance 📆 

• 2018: -25.89% (the great meme crash)

• 2019: -3.44%

• 2020: -10.07%

• 2021: -21.85% (the post-Elon hangover)

• 2022: -22.70%

• 2023: -7.15%

• 2024: -21.74%

Breaking Down the Numbers

• Overall Average: -14.64%, consistently negative.

• Green Months: 0 out of 7. Yes, ZERO.

• Red Months: All 7, averaging a painful -14.64%.

• Win Rate: Just to reiterate, a big fat 0%. Zip. Zero. Zilch.

There are no words to sugar coat this turd of a month for Dogecoin.

How June Stacks Up Against Other Months 🔄

1. April: 70.61% (thanks, Elon)

2. December: 41.09% (end-of-year meme frenzy)

3. November: 33.06%

4. January: 23.22%

5. October: 17.37%

6. February: 8.65%

7. March: -3.70%

8. May: -0.35% 9.

9. August: -0.37%

10. September: -6.98%

11. July: -0.20%

12. June: -14.64%

Seasonal Context 🗓️ 

• May (-0.35%) can swing either way.

• July (-0.20%) chills out before deeper summer doldrums.

Summer generally drags, with September struggling before October-November meme magic reawakens.

Stuff You Probably Didn’t Know 🧠

June’s Sneaky Predictor?

June can forecast Dogecoin’s second-half direction:

• Mild June dips (like -3.44% in 2019, -7.15% in 2023) signal better second halves.

• Brutal June dips (2021, 2022) warn of rough summers ahead.

Holy Cow Moment: If June is only mildly red, watch for a Q4 bounce-back. If June sucks big-time, expect more pain.

Post-Halving Blues

Dogecoin doesn’t halve, but it tracks Bitcoin’s cycles:

• 2020 and 2024 had June dips post-halving but huge Q4 rallies followed.

Holy Cow Moment: June might be a good entry point in post-halving years for patient traders eyeing Q4 meme rallies.

It Could Be Worse? 

June’s average red (-14.64%) isn’t Dogecoin’s worst:

• March (-23.71%) and January (-22.06%) have been harsher.

Holy Cow Moment: June dips are nasty but often recoverable, especially compared to deeper crashes in other months.

Practical Takeaways 🎯 

• June as an Indicator: Mildly negative June can be a bullish signal for the rest of the year. Brutal June? Take it slow.

• Dip Buying: June’s dips could offer valuable entry points, particularly post-halving or during strong social hype periods.

• Meme Radar: Always watch Dogecoin’s social sentiment closely.

June just sucks – but dips are dips and sometimes opportunities depending on the broader crypto trend.

(Data from Dogecoin Historical Data, July 2017–May 2025. Past performance yadda yadda, disclaimers and all that.)

Dogecoin’s historical data range for this analysis, July 2017 – May 30, 2025.

ANALYSIS
Cardano’s June: Least Hungover Of The Bunch 🫡 

Looking at BTC, ETH, XRP, and DOGE’s June performance has been like ranking of who can hold their liquor the best. Oh, all five are regretting their mistakes, but Cardano is the only one that decided ‘just one more’ was just one more.

June’s Historical Performance 📆 

• 2018: -38.42% (brutal bear market gut-punch)

• 2019: -7.92%

• 2020: 11.96% (rare sighting of a green June)

• 2021: -20.47%

• 2022: -26.60%

• 2023: -23.42%

• 2024: -12.21%

Breaking Down the Numbers

• Overall Average: -8.01%, mostly negative but skewed by one winner.

• Green Months: Only 1 out of 7 (2020), posting a nice 11.96%.

• Red Months: 6 out of 7, averaging a cringey -17.51%..

• Win Rate: Just 14% green. Which is sugar coating it. 14% win rate sounds better than green only once since 2018.

June sucks for Cardano, but June isn’t as high in the rankings of suck compared to other cryptos.

How June Stacks Up Against Other Months 🔄

1. November: 25.92% (big outlier gains)

2. February: 22.07% (fueled by monster pumps)

3. April: 13.14% (reliable performer)

4. January: 12.31%

5. October: -1.68%

6. June: -8.01%

7. May: -8.38%

8. December: -8.82%

9. March: -8.83%

10. September: -9.22%

11. August: -11.38%

12. July: -11.93%

June’s not glamorous, but it’s far from the worst, sandwiched neatly in the mid-pack.

Seasonal Context 🗓️ 

• May (-8.38%) can swing either way.

• July (-11.93%) typically dives deeper into the summer slump.

Summer remains shaky, with October-November eventually turning things around. June’s outcome often sets the tone for the rest of summer – watch closely.

Stuff You Probably Didn’t Know 🧠

Upgrade Influence

• 2020’s Shelley hype brought an 11.96% June jump.

• 2021 saw a sharp drop (-20.47%) due to Alonzo’s delays.

• 2024 dipped (-12.21%) post-Chang fork as traders cashed out.

Holy Cow Moment: June’s moves often track tech milestones and the different era’s that Cardano’s development roadmap follows.

June’s Reds Aren’t the Worst

While June’s average red (-17.51%) stings, it’s milder than some other months:

• March (-24.39%) and November (-21.61%) crash harder.

Holy Cow Moment: Like much of the crypto market, June dips tend to be shallow enough to buy into, especially in healthier market conditions.

Practical Takeaways 🎯 

• Trade Carefully, Move Fast: June’s volatility demands quick decisions.

• Watch the Close: June’s finish sets the summer tone. Positive or mildly negative could mean upside ahead; deeply negative signals caution.

• Buy Those Dips: June’s lows can be solid buy-ins, especially with upgrades.

• Stay Upgrade-Savvy: Cardano’s dev cycles heavily influence June – keep informed.

Compared to hodling BTC, ETH, XRP, or DOGE in June, Cardano could be the one least likely to make you feel regret. As for the other months, that’s another story.

Cardano’s historical data range for this analysis, January 2018 – May 30, 2025.

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