OVERVIEW

How Crypto Does In December 🎅

December in crypto has a reputation. The month where Santa Rally hopium collides with tax-loss harvesting and year-end portfolio shuffling. 🎅 

Half the market is convinced they’re about to get a gift. The other half is convinced they’re about to get dumped on by institutions closing books.

We’re going to find out which narrative actually holds up. This is a data-driven December breakdown for BTC, ETH, XRP, ADA, and LINK – looking at average returns, win rates, volatility patterns, streaks, and whether historically skipping the month even matters.

Some of it will confirm what you already suspected. Some of it is going to be weird.

Glossary

• Right-Tail Juice: Average return of the top 25% of Decembers. Measures explosive upside potential – how good it gets when it gets good.

• Tail Risk: Average return of the bottom 25% of Decembers. Measures how bad it can hurt when the month goes wrong.

• Seasonality Z-Score: How strong December is compared to all other months for that asset. Positive = December outperforms the asset’s norm. Negative = December underperforms.

• Skip-December Strategy: Compares what happens if you exit at December open and re-enter January 1 vs just holding through. Shows whether the month is worth sitting out or non-negotiable.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Bitcoin – The Coin Flip With Asymmetric Payouts 🎄

• Years analyzed: 15

• Win rate: 53.3%

• Average December return: +11.06%

• Median December return: +7.48%

• Average increase when up: +31.54%

• Average decrease when down: -12.35%

• Rank vs other months: 6 of 12

• Longest green streak: 3 years

• Longest red streak: 2 years

Advanced Metrics

• Right-Tail Juice: +49.99%

• Tail Risk: -22.34%

• Seasonality Z-Score: -0.06 (essentially average)

• Skew: Aggressively positive – when December rips, it rips

Skip-December Strategy

Skipping December nukes compounded returns by -68.2% vs HODL. This is a non-negotiable month. Sitting out costs you massively because the upside, when it hits, dwarfs the drawdowns.

Fact Snacks

• After a green November, December averages +10.90% with a 67% win rate (9 instances).

• After a red November, December averages +4.74% with only a 20% win rate (5 instances). Ouch.

• Win rate is barely above coin flip, but the payoff profile is wildly asymmetric. Average win (+31.54%) almost triples the average loss (-12.35%).

In A Nutshell

December is a coin flip with house money attached. The win rate is nothing special at 53%, but when it prints, it prints hard. Skipping it isn’t an option – you’d be leaving serious compounding on the table. The real signal is November: if it’s green, December often follows. If November already bled, December’s got a 20% hit rate.

Dataset range: December 2010 – December 2024

Best Price. Every Trade.

Built for active crypto traders. CoW Swap always searches across every major DEX and delivers the best execution price on every swap you make. Smarter routes. Better trades. No wasted value. Find your best price today. So why trade on any one DEX when you can use them all?

Find your best price today

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Ethereum – December Is Not Its Month 🧊 

• Years analyzed: 9

• Win rate: 44.4%

• Average December return: +6.32%

• Median December return: -7.19%

• Average increase when up: +29.28%

• Average decrease when down: -12.04%

• Rank vs other months: 8 of 12

• Longest green streak: 2 years

• Longest red streak: 2 years

Advanced Metrics

• Right-Tail Juice: +44.98%

• Tail Risk: -17.76%

• Seasonality Z-Score: -0.10 (slightly below average)

• Skew: Positive, but less explosive than BTC

Skip-December Strategy

Skipping December costs you -27.1% in compounded returns vs HODL. Still not worth it. The rare blowout Decembers (like 2017’s +70%) make skipping expensive.

Fact Snacks

• After a green November, December averages +14.16% with a 60% win rate. Not bad.

• After a red November, December averages -3.47% with only a 25% win rate. Predictable continuation.

• Median return is -7.19% while average is +6.32%. That gap tells you everything: a few monster Decembers drag the average up despite frequent losses.

• December 2024 just posted -9.86% after November’s +46.99%. The momentum didn’t hold.

In A Nutshell

ETH’s December is statistically mediocre. Sub-50% win rate, negative median, ranks 8th out of 12 months. The average looks decent only because 2017’s ICO-fueled blowout drags it up. The November correlation matters here: if November rips, December sometimes follows. If November already bled out, December rarely saves you.

This is not the month where ETH reinvents itself.

Dataset range: December 2016 – December 2024

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
XRP – The 740% Problem 🎰

• Years analyzed: 10

• Win rate: 40.0%

• Average December return: +65.60%

• Median December return: -3.94%

• Average increase when up: +194.77%

• Average decrease when down: -20.50%

• Rank vs other months: 1 of 12

• Longest green streak: 2 years

• Longest red streak: 5 years

Advanced Metrics

• Right-Tail Juice: +385.26%

• Tail Risk: -41.95%

• Seasonality Z-Score: +0.56 (notably above average)

• Skew: Off the charts – one December can make the year

Skip-December Strategy

Skipping December costs you -53.3% in compounded returns vs HODL. You don’t skip. The extreme right tail makes this mathematically non-negotiable, even though you’ll be wrong most of the time.

Fact Snacks

• After a green November, December averages +170.49% with a 75% win rate. That’s the 2017 effect distorting reality.

• After a red November, December averages -4.32% with only a 17% win rate (6 instances). November is the tell.

• The 5-year red streak (2018-2022) is brutal. Six straight losers from 2018 to 2022. Seasonality said “not today” for half a decade.

• 2017’s +740.41% December is the entire thesis. Remove it and the average drops to roughly +0%.

• Recent Decembers are stabilizing: 2023 (+1.65%) and 2024 (+6.89%) are both green but modest.

In A Nutshell

XRP’s December is an extreme lottery ticket. The 40% win rate sounds bad until you see the +194% average win versus -20% average loss. December 2017’s +740% single-handedly makes this the #1 ranked month despite a 60% loss rate.

You don’t skip December on XRP – you just accept that most years it does nothing or hurts, but the one time it works, it changes everything. Recent performance suggests the volatility regime might be calming down. Maybe.

Dataset range: December 2015 – December 2024

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Cardano – December Reliably Disappoints 💀

• Years analyzed: 7

• Win rate: 42.9%

• Average December return: -1.64%

• Median December return: -15.73%

• Average increase when up: +22.47%

• Average decrease when down: -19.72%

• Rank vs other months: 9 of 12

• Longest green streak: 1 year

• Longest red streak: 2 years

Advanced Metrics

• Right-Tail Juice: +58.19%

• Tail Risk: -22.93%

• Seasonality Z-Score: -0.17 (below average)

• Skew: Mild positive, but not enough to matter

Skip-December Strategy

Skipping December improves compounded returns by +39.4% vs HODL. This is one of the few assets where seasonally exiting actually helps.

Fact Snacks

• After a green November, December averages +14.01% with a 67% win rate. November momentum helps.

• After a red November, December averages -13.38% with only a 25% win rate. Continuation of pain.

• November 2024 was +215.31%. December 2024? -21.57%. Gave a lot of it right back.

• ADA has never strung together back-to-back green Decembers.

• The median return of -15.73% tells you the base case: expect a loss.

• 2023’s +58.19% was the outlier. Every other green December has been under +6%.

In A Nutshell

December is Cardano’s problem child. Negative median, sub-50% win rate, ranks 9th of 12 months. The skip-December strategy actually works here, improving returns by nearly 40%. ADA doesn’t do December well.

Dataset range: December 2018 – December 2024

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Chainlink – December Hates LINK 🔗

• Years analyzed: 7

• Win rate: 28.6%

• Average December return: -12.15%

• Median December return: -20.99%

• Average increase when up: +4.57%

• Average decrease when down: -18.84%

• Rank vs other months: 12 of 12 (dead last)

• Longest green streak: 2 years (ongoing)

• Longest red streak: 5 years

Advanced Metrics

• Right-Tail Juice: +5.38%

• Tail Risk: -27.40%

• Seasonality Z-Score: -0.53 (significantly below average)

• Skew: Negative – even the wins are tiny

Skip-December Strategy

Skipping December improves compounded returns by +167.0% vs HODL. This is dramatic. December is actively destroying LINK returns. Sitting out nearly triples the outcome.

Fact Snacks

• After a green November, December averages -4.02% with a 67% win rate. Wait – win rate is high but average is still negative. The wins are tiny.

• After a red November, December averages -18.25% with a 0% win rate (4 instances). Red November into December = guaranteed loss historically.

• Five consecutive red Decembers from 2018 to 2022.

• The best December ever is +5.38% (2024). The best case is barely break-even.

• The current 2-year green streak (2023, 2024) is trying to break the curse, but the gains are +3.76% and +5.38%. Barely scratching.

In A Nutshell

December is LINK’s seasonal graveyard. Dead last out of 12 months. 28.6% win rate. Negative median of -20.99%. The skip-December strategy improves returns by 167% – the strongest case for seasonal avoidance in this entire report.

Even when LINK wins in December, it wins small. When it loses, it loses big. The recent 2-year green streak is encouraging, but the returns are minimal. If there’s one asset where seasonal caution makes sense, it’s LINK in December.

Dataset range: December 2018 – December 2024

Terms & Conditions 📝

Securities Disclaimer: STOCKTWITS IS NOT A TAX ADVISOR, BROKER, FINANCIAL ADVISOR OR INVESTMENT ADVISOR. THE SERVICE IS NOT INTENDED TO PROVIDE TAX, LEGAL, FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVICE, AND NOTHING ON THE SERVICE SHOULD BE CONSTRUED AS AN OFFER TO SELL, A SOLICITATION OF AN OFFER TO BUY, OR A RECOMMENDATION FOR ANY SECURITY. Trading in such securities can result in immediate and substantial losses of the capital invested. You should only invest risk capital, and not capital required for other purposes. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether any investment, security or strategy, or any other product or service, is appropriate or suitable for you based on your investment objectives and personal and financial situation. You should also consult an attorney or tax professional regarding your specific legal or tax situation. The Content is to be used for informational and entertainment purposes only and the Service does not provide investment advice for any individual. Stocktwits, its affiliates and partners specifically disclaim any and all liability or loss arising out of any action taken in reliance on Content, including but not limited to market value or other loss on the sale or purchase of any company, property, product, service, security, instrument, or any other matter. You understand that an investment in any security is subject to a number of risks, and that discussions of any security published on the Service will not contain a list or description of relevant risk factors. In addition, please note that some of the stocks about which Content is published on the Service have a low market capitalization and/or insufficient public float. Such stocks are subject to more risk than stocks of larger companies, including greater volatility, lower liquidity and less publicly available information. Read the full terms & conditions here. 🔍

Author Disclosure: The author of this newsletter holds positions in AVAX, ADA, PUDGY, WLC, IMX, XTZ, NEAR, HBAR, ALGO, INJ, LTC, LINK, ZEC, XLM, and FET. 📋