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OVERVIEW

I’m Ready For Another Hit 👊

Here’s What’s Happening 👇️

Today’s top trending tickers: Ondo, Rage Guy, Toncoin, ROAM Token, and Ethereum.

Biggest gainers: $TON ( ▲ 0.85% ) , $WLFI ( ▲ 1.64% ) . $MEMECOIN ( ▲ 9.01% ) , $ICP ( ▲ 8.69% ) , and $PEPE ( ▲ 4.53% )

Biggest losers: $DOGE ( ▲ 0.36% ) , $ASTER ( ▲ 2.17% ) , $BCH ( ▲ 0.11% ) , $PI ( ▼ 2.46% ) , and $XRP ( ▲ 1.75% )

Before we dive in, here’s today’s crypto total market and altcoin market cap charts:

Source: TradingView

ON-CHAIN ANALYSIS
Structural Conviction Index: BTC Mean Coin Age Plummets 27% 🤯

Click to enlarge.

Bitcoin’s Structural Conviction Index printed -44.5 this week. Down 12.5 from last week, zero of three channels bullish.

Age Migration: Age leads the bleed at -64.9. Mean Coin Age 90-day peaked at 50.77 days on February 18 and has collapsed 27% to 37.13. The 14-day rate of change is now -6.33%. That’s old coins waking up – distribution behavior.

Custody Migration: Custody at -38.0 is less dramatic but pointing the same way. Six months of cumulative outflows total -94,735 BTC, which sounds bullish until you see mid-March posted -17,549 in a single week and this past week posted -778.

Concentration Migration: The 1,000-10,000 BTC wallets lost 0.13pp in the last 30 days. The 10,000-100,000 tier dropped 0.17pp. Those $BTC ( ▲ 0.19% ) didn’t go to retail – they went to the 100-1,000 BTC bucket, up 0.35pp. Funds and treasuries eating what big whales left on the floor.

Read: Probable distribution phase? Price doesn’t have to crash – supply just gets repriced lower while it stalls.

ON-CHAIN ANALYSIS
Structural Conviction Index: Mid-Tier Wallet Cohort Politely Declines ETH Distribution, Hands Bags Directly To Retail Instead 👜

Click to enlarge.

$ETH ( ▲ 0.37% ) ’s Structural Conviction Index printed -63.9 this week. Up 23.6 from last week’s -87.5, and, like Bitcoin zero of three channels bullish.

Age Migration: Mean Coin Age 90-day peaked at 45.90 on April 5 and has cratered 31% to 31.74 in five weeks. The 14-day rate of change is -21.43%. Old ETH is very quickly walking out.

Custody Migration: Cumulative six-month flow still nets -1.9M ETH outflows, but the last three weeks have flipped hard: +159K, +64K, and +50K ETH delivered back to exchanges. Hodlers are restocking the shelves.

Concentration Migration: Whale wallets (10K-1M ETH, excluding the staking contract tier) shed 1.05% in 14 days while retail gained 0.63%. The 10K-100K bucket alone dropped 0.50pp over the last 30 days.

Read: ETH is unwinding faster than BTC and through worse channels. It looks like whales are passing to retail.

ON-CHAIN ANALYSIS
Structural Conviction Index: XRP Whale And Retail Wallets Decline At Identical Rates 📉

Click to enlarge.

XRP’s Structural Conviction Index printed +53.6 this week. Up 38.5 from last week, both channels bullish. Note: Santiment’s MCA series broke on April 1 with negative values tied to Ripple wallet restructuring.

Custody Migration: Custody at +57.9. This past week posted -3.6M $XRP ( ▲ 1.75% ) off exchanges, the third consecutive outflow week. Six-month cumulative nets to -119.8M XRP across 18 outflow weeks of 27 total. Whoever’s accumulating XRP isn’t routing through exchanges to do it.

Concentration Migration: Whale wallets (100K-10M XRP, Ripple-controlled tiers excluded) declined 0.46% in 14 days while retail declined 0.39%. The score is up because the recent past was worse, not because whales are stacking. The 1M-10M tier shed 3.88pp over six months while 10M-100M ate 4.56pp – looks like consolidation.

Read: XRP is recovering off the April 8 trough at -93.8 on real exchange outflows. Custody is doing the work. Concentration is along for the ride.

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Fees. Investors may pay other fees, such as brokerage commissions and other fees to financial intermediaries, which are not reflected in the prospectus.
Evolving Asset Risk. Digital assets are a new technological innovation with a limited history. There is no assurance that usage of digital assets will continue to grow. A contraction in use of digital assets may result in increased volatility or a reduction in the price of the ETPs, which could adversely impact the value of the Fund.

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NEWS IN THREE SENTENCES
AI, Stablecoins, & Privacy News 🕵️

Dr. Ben Goertzel Releases 47-Page Paper Proposing Solution To Problem Only Ben Goertzel Has

SingularityNET founder Ben Goertzel published a preliminary design proposal titled “HyperClaw: Cognitive Orchestration via Attention-Metaprotocol for Hybrid AGI Systems,” outlining a MeTTa-based framework with Context Frames, an Attention-Metaprotocol, and Module Spaces using “geodesic scoring.” I understood about 12% of it all. SingularityNET.

Polygon Adds Privacy Feature For Stablecoin Transfers, Will Still Pass Compliance Checks That Defeat The Point

Polygon announced Monday that the Polygon wallet now supports private USDC and USDT transfers via Hinkal, a shielded-pool protocol using zero-knowledge proofs to hide sender, receiver, and amount. Polygon clarified that “every private transaction passes through KYT screening before execution.” The post described this as “opacity to the market, not opacity to regulators.” Polygon.

NEWS IN THREE SENTENCES
Real World Asset Tokenization (RWA) News 🪙

Coinbase Anoints Centrifuge As Preferred Tokenization Partner

Coinbase designated Centrifuge as a “Preferred Tokenization Infrastructure platform” and made a strategic investment. Centrifuge will build deRWAs on Base, including deSPXA, a tokenized S&P 500 exposure managed by Janus Henderson, available only to non-U.S. persons under Regulation S. Coinbase Chief Business Officer Shan Aggarwal said high-quality assets “remain constrained.” U.S. users remain constrained from accessing them. Centrifuge.

NEWS IN THREE SENTENCES
Metaverse, NFT, & Gaming News 🎮️

Decentraland Solves “Where Should We Meet” Problem 23 Years After IRC Solved It

Genesis Plaza now features portals letting users teleport directly into Flag Tag, Knights of Antrom, Slay the Steps, and Bloom Garden, an innovation the platform described as “specific, findable, the kind of thing you say without thinking about it.” Users can now coordinate by saying “Plaza, Nekko Bar portal, 8pm UTC” instead of sending a link. Decentraland.

Chiliz Reports US Sports Fans Are Finally Ready To Buy Worthless Team Tokens

Fan Token issuer Chiliz published the U.S. Edition of its Global Fan Report Tuesday, declaring “the green light is on” and “the US is open for business” following SEC and CFTC guidance. The study found 1 in 10 US sports fans already own Fan Tokens or digital collectibles, 30% are aware but haven’t purchased, and 26% would consider Fan Tokens their preferred digital engagement product, ahead of digital collectibles and prediction markets. Chiliz.

NEWS IN THREE SENTENCES
DeFi, DEX, & Lending News 🏦

Tezos Discovers The Solution To Multi-Chain Fragmentation Is To Add Another Chain

Tezos’s X Previewnet is now live, letting developers experiment with applications that interact across the EVM and Michelson interfaces “as part of the same flow.” They praised “native atomic composability” and described Michelson as “easier to formally verify.” Also, the Etherlink governance vote is expected in June. Tezos.

Crosschain Aggregator Builds Its Own Chain Because Of Course It Did

Relay announced its dedicated settlement chain Tuesday, “Relay Chain,” built on Sovereign SDK and Celestia, after the team got tired of paying gas to settle on the chains it already serviced. The Series B-funded project will now route settlement at roughly $0.005 per order with 1ms soft-confirmations, instead of paying Ethereum prices like a peasant. Celestia.

NEWS IN THREE SENTENCES
Protocol News 🏦

Two Weeks After Kelp Hack, Verifier Companies Smell Blood In The Water

Ankr now offers enterprise DVN infrastructure on LayerZero, two weeks after the $290 million KelpDAO exploit and roughly six hours after LayerZero officially declared 1-of-1 DVN configurations “no longer sufficient.” SOC 2 Type II certification, Zero Trust access, KMS-backed worker keys, CrowdStrike Falcon, and “roughly 600 bare-metal hosts” of independent infrastructure. Ankr.

OLD NEWS
Crypto Stuff That Happened Today, But A Long Time Ago 📜

Here’s what was happening in the newsletter a year ago today:

• Ethereum’s Pectra upgrade finally went live.

• The market structure looked wildly uneven – BTC was about 32% above its weekly Cloud while ETH was about 38% below its own. Balanced chaos. Very healthy.

• Solana quietly dodged a pretty ugly bullet – a ZK ElGamal vulnerability got patched before it turned into a real disaster.

Here’s what was happening in the newsletter two years ago today:

• The main story was SEC overkill – the piece argued Gensler’s media-blaming routine was nonsense, since crypto got 46 of 784 SEC actions in 2023 despite being only about 1.6% of capital markets.

• Render was the standout winner – up about 50% in a week, with the article walking through the actual use case instead of just yelling ticker symbols into the void.

OLD NEWS
Other Stuff That Happened Today, But A Long Ass Time Ago ⌛️

May 7

• 558 – The Hagia Sophia collapses.

• 1104 – Seljuk’s defeat the Crusaders States of Antioch and Edessa.

• 1718 – New Orleans is founded.

• 1765 – The HMS Victory is launched.

• 1847 – The American Medical Association is founded.

• 1867 – Alfred Nobel patents dynamite.

• 1915 – A German U-boat sinks the Lusitania.

• 1945 – Germany formally surrenders to the Allies, except the Soviet Union.

• 1946 – Sony is founded in Japan.

• 1992 – The 27th Amendment is ratified – 200+ years after it was first proposed.

• 2000 – Vladimir Putin becomes President of Russia.

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Author Disclosure: The author of this newsletter holds positions in AVAX, ADA, PUDGY, WLD, NEAR, INJ, LTC, LINK, ZEC, XLM, and FET. 📋