CLOSING BELL
Intel IS BACK

Happy Friday, especially if you’re Jerome Powell: the markets were green on peace talk hopes and the DOJ just dropped its criminal probe into the Fed Chair. That means FOMC succession might go on without a hitch, and the market read it as a green light to confirm Kevin Warsh.

Markets liked the clarity, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 hitting record highs. Nvidia and semis were flying, the Phila Semi Index was up 4%, all because of the other Friday gift: $INTC ( ▲ 23.6% ) , which ripped +25% posted Q1 earnings that were almost insultingly good. Revenue came in at $13.58B against a $12.42B estimate, and adjusted EPS hit 29 cents versus Wall Street’s penciled-in 1 cent.

The University of Michigan’s final April reading came in at 49.8, worse than any point during the financial crisis, COVID, or the post-Ukraine inflation spike. The ceasefire helped, a little. Friday’s rally got another nudge from reports that Iran’s foreign minister is meeting Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner in Pakistan for U.S. talks, which cooled oil prices briefly and gave tech room to breathe. Maybe actual negotiators will be better than poor ole’ JD Vance this time around.

Earnings season is sitting at an 81% EPS beat rate and 76% on revenue through 87 S&P 500 reporters. The numbers are good. The macro backdrop is a mess. That tension isn’t going away next week. 📊

AFTER THE BELL
Polymarket’s Maduro Mole 🎰 

A U.S. Army Special Forces master sergeant who helped plan the January raid on Venezuelan strongman Nicolás Maduro was arrested Thursday for allegedly using classified intel to clean up on Polymarket, the first-ever U.S. insider trading prosecution tied to a prediction market.

The ruling won’t stop at one soldier. “This case is going to set some important precedents that could impact traders in other cases,” Renato Mariotti, former federal prosecutor, said.

The RIP: Gannon Ken Van Dyke, 38, moved $35,000 into Coinbase on Dec. 26, placed $32,500 in Polymarket bets between Dec. 30 and Jan. 2, and pocketed over $400,000+ on contracts.

The CFTC framed it as a national security breach, not just a market abuse case. “The defendant was entrusted with confidential information about U.S. operations and yet took action that endangered U.S. national security and put the lives of American service members in harm’s way,” Michael Selig, CFTC chairman, said.

The DOJ and CFTC just put every trader on notice that “offshore” and “on-chain” isn’t anonymous, with $COIN ( ▲ 0.93% ) as the on-ramp that made Van Dyke findable. Watch $DJT ( ▲ 1.96% ) , whose Truth Predict launch walks straight into a tougher regulatory climate, and Kalshi, which suspended three congressional candidates Wednesday for betting on their own races. 🎰

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STOCKS
Intel Just Broke the Dot-Com Ceiling 🚀 

The chipmaker didn’t just beat earnings Thursday — it snapped a 25-year technical ceiling that had capped the stock since the peak of the dot-com bubble. For a name that spent two decades going nowhere, that’s not a small thing.

The RIP: $INTC ( ▲ 23.6% )  +23% Friday, clearing its year-2000 technical all-time high for the first time ever. Foundry revenue rose 16%, the best on record for the segment. Q2 guidance of $13.8B-$14.8B came in well above expectations, with adjusted EPS guidance of $0.20 — double what analysts had penciled in. The stock has gained +80% in 2026 alone.

The earnings confirmed something bigger than Intel: CPUs are back as an indispensable AI workload layer. Data centers are snapping them up alongside GPUs as agentic computing demands more general-purpose horsepower. $AMD ripped +12% Friday on pure read-through; D.A. Davidson upgraded it to buy, hiking its price target to $375. $ARM added +13% for the same reason. Bulls argue Intel’s foundry business hasn’t meaningfully contributed yet. Key floor to watch: $75-$76, where prior resistance now becomes support. 🔩

The halo effect has legs. Gene Munster called it a “rising tide” for the whole chip sector, arguing AI infrastructure demand is still in early innings and that CPUs are now a legitimate bottleneck alongside GPUs. With $NVDA and SoftBank already invested in Intel and the U.S. government holding an $11B stake, the political tailwinds aren’t going anywhere either. Whether Intel can hold this breakout or needs a reset to $65 is the only real question heading into next week. 🏭x

MACRO NEWS
Fed Drama Gets a Reset 🏛️ 

The Justice Department killed its criminal probe of Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Friday, clearing the last political obstacle to Kevin Warsh’s confirmation and ending a three-month standoff that rattled the central bank’s leadership transition.

The Powell investigation, launched in January over alleged cost overruns on the Fed’s billion-dollar HQ renovation, is closed. U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro handed the matter to the Fed’s own inspector general and walked away.

“I will not hesitate to restart a criminal investigation should the facts warrant doing so,” Jeanine Pirro, U.S. Attorney for the District of Columbia, said.

The RIP: Pirro closed the investigation into Powell’s testimony on the Fed’s $2.5B building renovation, punting the matter to the Fed’s Office of Inspector General. The two-year Treasury yield fell 5 basis points to 3.78% on the news. Powell’s term as chair expires May 15; the next FOMC meeting is June 16-17.

This week at Warsh’s nomination hearings in the Senate, Sen. Thom Tillis, a Republican from North Carolina said he would hold back Warsh until this specific targeted campaign ended.

“You have extraordinary credentials. They’re impeccable,” Tillis said. “Let’s get rid of this investigation, so I can support your confirmation.”

Markets liked the clarity: the Nasdaq was up +1.3% and the S&P +0.65% at midday, while the Dow lagged at -0.2%. What the market liked less was what it implies: Warsh, who ducked questions about the 2020 election under oath this week, gets closer to the chair. Nobody’s wrong exactly.

He said he would be no sock puppet, but Trump said last year he would not have chosen Warsh if he thought he would not cut rates. Rate-sensitive names like homebuilders $DHI and $LEN, plus regional banks across $KRE, stand to benefit most if the June meeting tilts easier. Powell still hasn’t said whether he’ll resign his governor seat, which runs to 2028. 🏛️

TRENDING STOCKS
Pops & Drops

• $ATOM ( ▲ 38.93% )  Atomera ⚡: soared +39% after expanded Synopsys GaN modeling deal

• $POET ( ▲ 28.84% )  POET ⚡: ripped +29% after Celestial AI order via Marvell

• $ZBCN ( ▲ 2.68% )  Zebec Network ⚡: jumped +15% after altcoin rally, no specific catalyst

• $SMCI ( ▲ 8.71% )  Supermicro: jumped +9% after AI server play tracked Intel

• $NEM ( ▲ 8.68% )  Newmont: surged +9% after Q1 beat and $6B buyback

• $NOW ( ▲ 6.36% )  ServiceNow ⚡: popped +6% after bargain bids post-Wednesday plunge

• $SNDK ( ▲ 6.16% )  Sandisk: soared +6% after memory maker caught Intel halo

• $TTD ( ▲ 5.97% )  Trade Desk: jumped +6% after CEO’s $150M buy, tech rally

• $CDNS ( ▲ 5.91% )  Cadence: climbed +6% after chip-design sector ripped with Intel

• $CRSP ( ▼ 11.59% )  CRISPR ⚡: tumbled -12% after gene-editing sector sold off

• $CMCSA ( ▼ 12.9% )  Comcast: cratered -13% after streaming losses, broadband bleed continues

• $NTLA ( ▼ 14.12% )  Intellia ⚡: plunged -14% after gene-editing stocks cratered broadly

• $CHTR ( ▼ 25.5% )  Charter: collapsed -26% after worst-ever drop, broadband subs hemorrhaged 📉

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ST EDITOR’S PICKS
What We Are Reading and Watching 🗞️ 👀 

Links That Don’t Suck 🌐

🤑  P&G warns of $1 billion profit hit in fiscal 2027 from higher oil prices

😨 Meta and Microsoft have joined the tech layoff tsunami – but is AI really to blame?

🧑‍⚖️ Musk v. Altman heads to court next week. Here’s what’s at stake

At least 10 injured, homes destroyed after tornadoes hit northern Oklahoma: What we know

📺️ Iran’s top diplomat expected in Pakistan on Friday night to discuss peace plans: MS NOW

👀 US soldier charged with using classified intel to win $400K Polymarket bet on Maduro raid

Get In Touch 📬

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