OVERVIEW

Is Thanksgiving Good For Crypto? 🤔

Before we dive in, here’s today’s crypto market heatmap:

Source: finviz

And here’s a look at crypto’s total market and altcoin market cap charts:

Source: TradingView

NEWS
How Does Crypto Perform During Thanksgiving? 🦃

Thanksgiving week marks a distinct period in financial markets. Traditional equities see reduced volume, institutional desks thin out, and retail participation shifts. Crypto – a 24/7 market with heavy retail influence – operates under different dynamics. 🕛️ 

So how do digital assets actually perform during the holiday window?

Today’s Cryptotwits newsletter examines eight tickers: $BTC.X ( ▲ 3.85% ), $ETH.X ( ▲ 3.35% ), $XRP.X ( ▲ 1.43% ), $LTC.X ( ▲ 2.11% ), $ADA.X ( ▲ 4.75% ), $DOGE.X ( ▲ 3.82% ), $XLM.X ( ▲ 4.86% ), and $DASH.X ( ▲ 21.08% ).

Looking across their entire trading histories, I measured performance during three windows:

1. Thanksgiving week itself

2. One week after

3. Two weeks after.

And for each asset, calculated average returns, win rates, and cumulative gains through mid-December.

Here’s how they did. 👇️ 

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Bitcoin 🦃

BTC treats Thanksgiving like a polite guest. Shows up. Brings a nice bottle of wine. Doesn’t freak anyone out. 😱

Across 14 years, Bitcoin clocks a clean +3.8% Thanksgiving-week average and then quietly grinds another +6% over the next two weeks for a +10% cumulative window. Nice. Not over the top. Just reliably half-decent.

• Thanksgiving Week: +3.8%

• Win Rate: 57%

• Two-Week Follow-Through: +6.2%

• Cumulative: +10%

BTC is the grown-up in the room. Even the downside years don’t look catastrophic relative to the altcoin fire hazards. When this thing moves during Thanksgiving season, you usually get a second helping. 📈

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Ethereum 🦃

ETH likes Thanksgiving, but only the first plate. After that it wanders off and gets distracted. 🚶

ETH posts a 67% win rate during the holiday week, but the follow-through evaporates fast. The second week after Thanksgiving? Win rate falls to 44%. The average cumulative return barely clears +0.7%.

• Thanksgiving Week: +2.1%

• Win Rate: 67%

• Two-Week Follow-Through: basically statistical static

• Cumulative: +0.7%

Recent years look better, but historically ETH behaves like it’s “beta to Bitcoin” until it absolutely isn’t. ETH giveth. ETH taketh. Every year is its own adventure. 🗺️

STOCKTWITS
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TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
XRP 🦃

XRP is that cousin who either brings incredible pie or sets the kitchen on fire. 🥧

Volatility here is unhinged. You get a +62% Thanksgiving week once (2024), then a -35% two-week disaster another year (2018). Win rates are literally coin flips across every window.

• Thanksgiving Week: +3.1%

• Win Rate: 50%

• Two-Week Follow-Through: +3.5% avg but only because of massive outliers

• Behavior: vibes and litigation

Trading XRP during Thanksgiving is not a “strategy.” It’s performance art. 🎭️

STOCKTWITS
Stonkmarket News 📰

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Litecoin 🦃

Litecoin behaves like the dad who wakes up from his Thanksgiving nap and suddenly decides to fix the roof. 🏠️

LTC isn’t the strongest during Thanksgiving week… but it absolutely turns on the jets after.

• Thanksgiving Week: +4.8%

• Win Rate: 56%

• Best Asset for the 2 Weeks After: +3.8%

• Cumulative: +11.2%

LTC likes to run late. Historically, if it’s doing anything at all during November, it tends to do it after the holiday lull when rotation kicks in. 2017’s monstrous +108% cumulative run does skew the average… but even removing that insanity, LTC still overperforms this window. 🪟

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Cardano 🦃

ADA during Thanksgiving is the definition of “strong start, questionable follow-through.” 🤔

ADA’s got the best Thanksgiving-week win rate of any major coin. 71%. Huge. You’d think that means something wonderful. You’d be wrong.

• Thanksgiving Week: +0.9%

• Win Rate: 71%

• Week 2 Win Rate: 29% (lowest of all assets)

• Cumulative: +1.4%

ADA loves popping early. Then the energy drains out like someone pulled the battery. If you catch the first move, congrats. If you hold through week two, you’re probably arguing with strangers on Stocktwits or X. 😰

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Dogecoin 🦃

DOGE behaves exactly how you’d expect a dog-themed inflationary meme asset to behave during a national holiday. 🗓️

Pure chaos.

• Thanksgiving Week: +8%

• Two-Week Win Rate: 25%

• Cumulative Return: +10.7%

• Pattern: pump to applause to dump to regret

DOGE loves Thanksgiving week. The problem is everything that happens after Thanksgiving week. Attention fades. Liquidity thins. The meme gods move on. The second-week win rate is the lowest of all assets except maybe the stuff nobody tracks anymore. 🐶 

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Stellar 🦃

The numbers say XLM has the highest two-week cumulative return of any asset. Reality says “yeah, because 2017 existed.” 🔢

• Thanksgiving Week: +8.3%

• Week After: +3.6% (best of all assets)

• Cumulative: +19.3%

• Adjusted Cumulative (remove 2017): meh

Stellar’s seasonality is basically one gigantic bull-market blowout holding the average hostage. Outside of that, XLM behaves like a normal high-beta alt: sometimes glorious, sometimes tragic. 💹 

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Dash 🦃

Dash is the Thanksgiving MVP for exactly one week and then immediately retires. 👴

• Thanksgiving Week: +10.9%

• Win Rate: 75%

• Week Two: -2.5%

• Win Rate Week Two: 25%

Dash does great during Thanksgiving. Truly. But the follow-through is basically a rug. Gains evaporate in week two like clockwork. This thing is the definition of “trade it, don’t marry it.” 💒 

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Author Disclosure: The author of this newsletter holds positions in AVAX, ADA, PUDGY, WLC, IMX, XTZ, NEAR, HBAR, ALGO, INJ, LTC, LINK, ZEC, XLM, and FET. 📋