Litepaper Readers Were Ahead Of The Game All Year 🥇
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OVERVIEW
Litepaper Readers Were Ahead Of The Game All Year 🥇
Just because it’s the week of Christmas doesn’t mean you won’t get a dose of The Litepaper. Santa isn’t that cruel. 🎅
You’ll find each edition of the Litepaper this week to be packed with great facts and information, just as it always is.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Spotting The March 2024 Top In Advance 👀
From March 2024 through October 2024, crypto was in the suck. Seven months of sliding, sucky price action. 🥹
But as some readers and Stocktwits users pointed out: the Litepaper gave them a heads up.
In the March 1, 2024 Litepaper, we didn’t just hint at a potential top—we practically circled it on the calendar. Gann’s 180-day and 49-day cycles, Bitcoin’s historical six-month rally limit, Ichimoku’s 26-day significance, and the seasonal caution around March all stacked the deck against continued upside. 🧱
March 1, 2024, BTCUSD Weekly Chart – Click to enlarge.
Two weeks later, the March 15 Litepaper doubled down, highlighting Gann’s seasonal dates and amplifying the “be careful” chorus.
March 15, 2024, BTCUSD 2-Week Chart – Click to enlarge.
When Bitcoin finally topped out in mid-March 2024, our readers were already leaning back, coffee in hand, instead of scrambling to adjust their portfolios.
Fast forward to today, and the analysis panned out: March is when crypto decided to stop its drive higher:
BTCUSD Weekly Chart – Click to enlarge.
Another good example came in December 2024. As the broader market hit a speed bump, Litepaper readers barely blinked. The December 3 Litepaper had already waved a caution flag.
While others tried to rationalize the slowdown after it happened, we had spelled it out weeks beforehand.
December 3, 2024, BTC MVRV Ratio (red), Price (Green) – Source: Santiment
Across the board, in crypto, there were elevated MVRV levels warning that the massive spike higher could be too extended. And since then, well, profits have been taken and short term FUD is the current climate. ☁️
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TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Silver Spike 🚀
If it wasn’t for crypto, the investment world would be talking about precious metals. Gold made new all-time highs in 2024, and it’s predicted that silver isn’t too far behind. 🪙
Precious metals and crypto share a lot of the same principles and attitudes. It makes sense: crypto and precious metals both act as hedges against inflation and as a source of insurance against all paper fiat money.
Cool fact: Some of the earliest adopters of utilizing Bitcoin and crypto as a payment for goods are bullion dealers. And, to this day, the discount off the premiums for physical metals remains the highest for crypto. 💵
And because crypto and metals share such a massive audience of speculators and investors, if something major pops up on the charts, I make a point to point it out.
In the March 15, 2024, Litepaper, silver was at $25.36, and we looked at what appeared to be an imminent, major breakout. 🔨
March 15, 2024, XAGUSD Monthly Chart – Click to enlarge.
While silver didn’t make new all-time highs in 2024, it did rally to 12+ year highs and ended up just shy of the $35 mark in October.
XAGUSD Monthly Chart – Click to enlarge.
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The Perfect Holiday Watch Party Movie 👀
Remember Glauber “Pro” Contessoto, aka “The Dogecoin Millionaire?” With crypto roaring back like it’s 2021 again, his name is making a comeback alongside Dogecoin’s price as retail looks for a repeat of the ‘meme coin’ mania. 🤑
His story was captured in a film nominated for ‘Best Documentary’ at the 2024 Astra Awards. And we’ve officially rolled it out in four digestible parts right on the Stocktwits YouTube channel, just in time for the holidays
See how THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE exposes the risks and rewards of today’s market through expert commentary and the anxiety-inducing stories of real people trying to make millions. It’s the perfect holiday watch for market lovers. 🍿
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Remember The Yen Carry Trade Crisis? Ya, We Were Waaaaay Ahead Of It
Just because it’s not crypto doesn’t mean it’s not important to pay attention to. If there are some big macro concerns, you can bet your ass I/we will get the tinfoil hats ready. ㊙️
In 2024, the first time we looked at the Yen was in the April 12 Litepaper, where I said this is the scariest god-damned chart I look at:
April 12, 2024, JXY Monthly Chart – Click to enlarge.
Things got worse, and we took another look on April 26:
April 26, 2024 JXY Monthly Chart – Click to enlarge.
Cool fact: I’ve spent a good chunk of my career in FX markets. When I covered the Daily Rip newsletter for a couple of weeks in December 2022, I began the slow ‘CAUTION CAUTION CAUTION CAUTION’ concerning the Japanese Yen (The Daily Rip, December 20, 2022), and I made a point to bring it up at least a couple of times each year. 🫵
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
The Only Trend Line That Mattered Could Only Be Found Here
Regular readers of the Litepaper recall seeing an orange trendline on Bitcoin’s chart that first appeared in the April 2, 2024 Litepaper. 🔗
In the April 2, 2024 Litepaper, I introduced an interior trendline on Bitcoin that turned out to be the real deal.
April 2, 2024, BTCUSD Monthly Chart – Click to enlarge.
Then, in the April 17 Litepaper, here’s what it looked like:
April 17, 2024 BTCUSD Weekly Chart – Click to enlarge.
Bitcoin then ended up right on top of that interior trendline, as shown in the May 1 Litepaper:
May 1, 2024 BTCUSD Weekly Chart – Click to enlarge.
We looked at that interior trendline again in the July 3 Litepaper:
July 3, 2024 BTCUSD Daily Chart – Click to enlarge.
The November 8 Litepaper showed the interior trendline maintaining its dominance and importance:
November 8, 2024, BTCUSD Weekly Chart – Click to enlarge.
And here’s what it looks like through late December 2024:
BTCUSD 3-Day Chart – Click to enlarge.
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Author Disclosure: The author of this newsletter holds positions in ADA, WMT, COPI, LTC, LINK, MIN, AGIX, ALGO, DOGE, ZEC, AVAX, XLM, XTZ, and NEAR. 📋
