CLOSING BELL
Market Said Give Peace A Chance

The market rebounded, finally, after the Iranians and U.S. came to a ceasefire agreement last night, brokered by Pakistan, just before the civilization-ending 8pm deadline.

The market is climbing back to where it was when the war first truly started, just before March began. The S&P 500 was up 2.5%, Nasdaq 100 nearly 3% higher, and the Dow jumped 1,000 points.

“I agree to suspend the bombing and attack of Iran for a period of two weeks,” Trump posted. “We received a 10-point proposal from Iran, and believe it is a workable basis on which to negotiate.”

The two sides will meet in a midle ground within the next two weeks, even as Iranian attacks on Kuwait or Israeli attacks on Lebanon threaten the truce.

Crude fell below 100 a barrel, finally, and airlines, cruises, and any industry that burns oil to travel, or relies on safe conditions ended higher. Ships started to move through the Strait of Hormuz, but there are still at least 50 vessels holding oil and liquid natural gas waiting to get the all clear, Neil Atkinson of the National Center for Energy Analytics told Bloomberg. The waterway used to get 100 passages a day.

The market got the all clear it needed. Semiconductors were up 5%, Micron leading the way 7% higher. Energy stocks like Chevron that have gained fell.

AFTER THE BELL
Earnings Season Is BACK Baby 👶 

The legacy carrier Delta kicked off airline earnings season with a massive beat on Wednesday, and the stock surged +11% in premarket, but srotof tanked during regular trade.

The RIP: $DAL ( ▲ 3.75% ) posted record Q1 revenue of $14.2B, beating the $13.9B estimate and growing 9% year-over-year. Adjusted EPS of $0.64 crushed the $0.61 forecast, driven by a 12% return on invested capital and $1.2B in free cash flow. The airline flagged a $2B fuel headwind for the coming quarter but expects to offset this with double-digit revenue growth in June. ✈️

Applied Digital’s AI Factory Pivot: The data center operator delivered a volatile fiscal Q3 update on Wednesday, the stock whipsawing as investors weighed an explosive revenue triple against the heavy capital costs of its rapid shift into high-performance computing.

The RIP: $APLD ( ▲ 10.37% ) reported revenue of $126M, a 139% year-over-year increase that easily cleared the $75M consensus. While GAAP net loss widened to $100M, or $0.36 per share, the company posted an adjusted net income of $0.09 per share, beating the $0.14 loss estimate.

Watch for the execution of the CoreWeave lease at Polaris Forge 1; any delay in tenant fit-out for these AI workloads is the primary risk to the current valuation. The stock’s 403% return over the last year has created high expectations for its 300 MW critical IT load targets. 🏢

Kura Sushi’s Efficient Growth: The technology-enabled restaurant chain reported fiscal Q2 results Tuesday afternoon, with $KRUS shares seeing a -17% crash. CFO Jeff Uttz is stepping down. They beat on top and bottom lines, saw a 8.6% increase in comparable restaurant sales, but I guess people really liked Jeff. 🍣

AFTER THE BELL
Meta Reclaims AI Relevance: 🤷 

The social media giant finally broke a year-long drought on Wednesday, with Meta surging after dropping a new AI model, Muse Spark.

The RIP: $META ( ▲ 6.5% ) made its largest move since January, following a $14B talent acquisition. They say Muse Spark is a natively multimodal reasoning model that outscored Google Gemini on internal benchmarks, but tonight when I tried to use it, I couldn’t log in. Meta claims the new training recipe achieves the same capabilities as the cancelled Llama 4 Maverick using over an order of magnitude less compute.

We’ll see. Stocktwits sentiment remains high as the company pivots from Llama 4’s benchmark “gaming” to tangible efficiency gains. 🧠

PRESENTED BY TEMA ETFS
Space Innovators ETF (NASA): Pre-IPO Access to SpaceX

Everyone’s waiting for the SpaceX IPO. With the Tema Space Innovators ETF (NASA), you don’t have to. Get pre-IPO exposure with the first pure play ETF focused exclusively on the modern space economy, including 10% direct exposure to SpaceX.

SpaceX is a private security, and is less than 15% of holdings. At inception, SpaceX was 10% of the portfolio holdings. Fund holdings are subject to change. Private investments have increased liquidity and valuation risk. View temaetfs.com/NASA for current holdings and prospectus. Consider fund risk and objectives before investing. Distributed by Vigilant Distributors, LLC. No affiliation with, or sponsorship/endorsement by National Aeronautics and Space Administration.

*3rd Party Ad. Not an offer or recommendation by Stocktwits. See disclosure here.

STOCKS
Ceasefire Stocks Are A Real Who’s Who Of Popular Stock Names

As the hopeful ceasefire deal took shape, and the White House readies a delegation led by J.D. Vance to head to the east to start full talks, the market rebounded in a hardcore way. The top sectors and segments climbing, and some falling, tell the story the market forgot when the war started: chips, industrial data center projects, oil (always oil), and software:

1. Chips Lead the “Violent” Reversal: The semiconductor sector snapped weeks of anxiety. Equipment and memory names saw the biggest relief as the “war premium” on supply chains evaporated.
The Gainers: $TER (+12%), $INTC (+11%), $LRCX (+10%), $AMAT (+9%).
Retail Fever: Intel ($INTC) was the retail darling of the day, with 53,000 symbol page views on Stocktwits.
Infrastructure Sympathy: Networking and data names like $GLW (+11%) and $ANET (+9%) rose as frozen capex budgets began to thaw.

2. Industrials and “Physical” Plays Exhale: Heavy machinery and industrial stalwarts surged as the prospect of normalized trade routes returned.
Heavy Iron Rips: $CAT (+7%), $DE (+6%), $CMI (+7%).
The Laggards: Chemical and feedstock names took a hit as input pricing shifted ($LYB -8%, $DOW -5%).

3. The Energy Pivot: Oil Tanks, Travel Flies: The mere hint of the Strait of Hormuz reopening crushed oil prices and handed a massive fuel-cost reprieve to transport-heavy sectors. Airlines and cruise lines soared: $CCL (+11%), $UAL (+8%), $LUV (+7%).
Energy Crater: Geopolitical premiums evaporated for producers like $APA (-10%) and $OXY (-5%).
The Risk: A two-week ceasefire is a “short fuse.” If the Strait closes again, the $XOM and $CVX bulls could return quickly.

4. The Great Software Rotation: As money rushed into physical cyclicals (chips and machinery), high-multiple software names were the primary “source of funds.”
SaaS Selloff: Defensive tech got dumped. $WDAY (-7%), $PLTR (-6%), $PAYC (-5%).
Sentiment Shift: Despite the price drop, Palantir ($PLTR) remained a high-interest name with over 50,000 Stocktwits views.

The Bottom Line: Markets are pricing in a resolution that isn’t yet confirmed. Investors are rotating out of software “safety” and back into the physical economy, betting that the Vance-led delegation brings home a lasting peace.

MACRO NEWS
Fed Minutes Show Holds as Oil Shock Complicates Cuts ⌛️ 

Buried beneath a crazy green day, the FOMC released its meeting minutes from its March 18th no-change rate decision. The end to open hostilities in the Middle East changed the likelihood of rate changes far more than the dusty minute records of what happened a month ago.

CME Fedwatch showed bond traders are betting on a much higher chance of a rate cut by the end of the year. Oil prices climbing past $100/barrel and gas burning higher along with them made the market pause, and then start to sweat over the concept of inflation caused rate HIKE before another cut. Wednesday, it looks like a 45% chance of a cut by 2027, up from just 14% Tuesday.

Back in March, the FOMC voted 11-1 to hold rates at 3.5%-3.75%, with lone dissenter Stephen Miran pushing for a 25bp cut. The Middle East-driven ~50% surge in crude futures reshuffled the timeline and sent broad equities down ~5%.

The committee’s framing turned explicitly two-sided. “Some participants judged that there was a strong case for a two-sided description of the committee’s future interest rate decisions… reflecting the possibility that upward adjustments could be appropriate if inflation were to remain at above-target levels,” the minutes stated.

The first rate cut is now priced as early as October, at nearly 25%. But that all revolves around oil prices that stop climbing, and keep falling. Crude prices dropped the most in six years today. Core PCE sits at 3.1% with energy prices adding a new upward impulse.

TRENDING STOCKS ON STOCKTWITS
Pops & Drops

• $CVNA ( ▲ 5.81% )  Carvana: jumped +6% after lower fuel costs improved used auto demand outlook

• $STX ( ▲ 5.88% )  Seagate: surged +6% after data storage demand tied to AI infrastructure recovery

• $AXON ( ▲ 5.0% )  Axon: climbed +5% after broad risk-on rotation lifted high-growth names

• $APLD ( ▲ 10.37% )  Applied Digital: surged +10% after AI data center demand held firm despite macro noise

• $REPL ( ▼ 24.55% )  Replimune: cratered -25% after Phase 3 trial missed primary endpoint

• $APP ( ▼ 4.69% )  AppLovin: fell -5% after rotation out of high-multiple ad tech

• $DUOL ( ▼ 5.43% )  Duolingo: slid -5% after software rotation hit consumer subscription names

IN PARTNERSHIP WITH TEMA ETFS
Space Innovators ETF (NASA): Pre-IPO Access to SpaceX

Everyone’s waiting for the SpaceX IPO. With the Tema Space Innovators ETF (NASA), you don’t have to. Get pre-IPO exposure with the first pure play ETF focused exclusively on the modern space economy, including 10% direct exposure to SpaceX.

SpaceX is a private security, and is less than 15% of holdings. At inception, SpaceX was 10% of the portfolio holdings. Fund holdings are subject to change. Private investments have increased liquidity and valuation risk. View temaetfs.com/NASA for current holdings and prospectus. Consider fund risk and objectives before investing. Distributed by Vigilant Distributors, LLC. No affiliation with, or sponsorship/endorsement by National Aeronautics and Space Administration.

*3rd Party Ad. Not an offer or recommendation by Stocktwits. See disclosure here.

ST EDITOR’S PICKS
What We Are Reading and Watching 🗞️ 👀 

Michele Steele sits down with Yuri Khodjamirian, CIO at TEMA ETFs and portfolio manager of the brand-new NASA ETF. Yuri explains why TEMA built NASA as a “pure play” space fund—and why he believes it’s impossible to have a real space ETF without SpaceX. Check it out now:

WHAT’S ON DECK
Tomorrow’s Top Things 📋

Macro: PCE Prices (MoM/YoY/Core) (Feb) (8:30 AM ET), GDP (QoQ) (Q4) + GDP Price Index (8:30 AM ET), Initial + Continuing Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET), Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q1) (11:30 AM ET), 30-Year Bond Auction (1:00 PM ET). 📊
Pre-Market Earnings: $BB BlackBerry. ☀️
After-Market Earnings: $QCLS Q/C Technologies Inc., $ITP IT Tech Packaging Inc, $EGY Vaalco Energy Inc, $CLIR ClearSign Technologies, $GURE Gulf Resources Inc. 🌙

P.S. You can listen to all of these earnings calls on Stocktwits.

Links That Don’t Suck 🌐

📈 Join IBD Live to watch and discuss the market action with top market analysts*

🏠️ Hormuz Stays Blocked for Now as Hundreds of Ships Seek Exit

💰️ What is Iran’s 10-point peace plan – and what has Trump said?

📺️ Latest investigation of Bitcoin founder ties identity to Blockstream CEO Adam Back

👀 Meta debuts Muse Spark, first AI model under Alexandr Wang

*3rd Party Ad. Not an offer or recommendation by Stocktwits. See disclosure here. 

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