Meet Your Hawks

Presented by

The market sold off Wednesday as the Iran war, stubborn inflation, and a newly divided Fed made expensive tech the wrong place to hide. The Nasdaq 100 fell into correction territory, and QQQ with it.

Energy was the lone shelter while industrials and semiconductors absorbed the worst selling. Warsh held rates steady, but three dissenters wanted a hike. After hours, Microsoft paired its $41B capex bill with 43% Azure growth and rallied, while Meta’s softer forecast and 91% free-cash-flow collapse sank shares.

Stocktwits caught the divide: Microsoft’s room stayed 62% bullish, Meta flipped 67% bearish, and Sandisk’s 83% bullish crowd tried catching the falling memory trade.

Today’s Briefing: Powered by Stocktwits Community API.

• After the Bell: Microsoft and Meta showed why the market funds AI only when growth leaves a receipt.

• Macro News: The Fed held at 3.50%-3.75%, but three officials voted for an immediate hike.

• What’s Trending Now on Stocktwits

• Are investors right to reward Microsoft’s AI spending while punishing Meta’s?

AFTER THE BELL
Same Bill, Different Receipt 🧾

Microsoft and Meta both told investors Wednesday that AI infrastructure will keep devouring cash, but the market rewarded only the company that paired the bill with accelerating demand. Microsoft rose after hours while Meta sank, proving investors are not allergic to capex, only capex without a near-term receipt.

The RIP: $MSFT jumped +7% after hours as revenue reached $90B vs. $87.7B expected and EPS hit $4.81 vs. $4.25. $META fell -8% after posting $60.8B vs. $60.3B expected, while EPS missed at $6.18 vs. $7.19.

Microsoft spent $41B on capital expenditures, up 70% but below the $42B expected. Azure accelerated 43%, its fastest growth since early 2022, surpassed the 40% estimate, and crossed $100B in annual revenue. Microsoft 365 Copilot reached 30M paid users, up from 20M three months earlier.

Meta’s ad engine also delivered, with advertising revenue rising 27% to $59.4B. But quarterly capex nearly doubled to $31.1B, the company raised the bottom of its annual spending range to $130B, and its third-quarter sales midpoint landed below consensus. Free cash flow collapsed 91% to $784M as data centers absorbed nearly everything operations produced.

Microsoft can point directly from AI spending to Azure consumption and paid Copilot seats, while Meta still relies on mature social apps to finance data centers, models, and products that barely register in revenue. Investors accepted Microsoft’s larger check because 43% cloud growth was stapled to it. Meta brought a softer forecast and asked for patience.

The Community Read: Stocktwits flipped 67% bear on $META while $MSFT held 62% bullish, read the split ->

SPONSORED BY TEMA ETFS
Invest in AI’s Transformation of Healthcare

Healthcare spending is forecast to exceed 20% of U.S. GDP,¹ yet the sector represents less than 9% of the S&P 500.² We believe AI is poised to close that gap by accelerating drug discovery, improving clinical success, and enabling better, more efficient patient care.

But healthcare innovation is complex, highly specialized, and marked by significant scientific and clinical risk. The Tema Healthcare AI ETF (HLTH) takes an actively managed approach to identifying the companies best positioned to lead this transition.

*3rd Party Ad. Not an offer or recommendation by Stocktwits. See disclosure here.

1 Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, NHE Fact Sheet, Jul 2026.
2 Bloomberg, Jun 30, 2026.

MACRO NEWS
The Hawks Find Names 🦅

Kevin Warsh’s second meeting as Fed chair ended with rates unchanged Wednesday, but three dissents turned June’s anonymous rate-hike warnings into an open split. Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie Logan wanted to raise rates immediately, while Warsh argued that higher market yields are already doing some of the Fed’s work.

“There is no soft implicit target, not on this committee’s watch,” Kevin Warsh, Fed chair, said Wednesday. “Markets have made decisions because we stepped back, in part, from trying to influence those markets.”

The RIP: The FOMC held at 3.50%-3.75% for a fifth straight meeting in a 9-3 vote. In June, 9 of 18 participants projected at least one 2026 hike, 8 saw no change, and 1 projected a cut. The 2-year Treasury yield slipped 2 bps to 4.24%.

“A few participants commented that, in light of these developments, there was a case for raising the target range,” the June FOMC minutes said.

The Fed copied June’s statement almost word for word, but the vote underneath it changed dramatically. Warsh’s first meeting ended 12-0 for a hold even though nine dots projected a hike, including six that called for multiple increases, and Warsh declined to submit his own rate forecast.

Six weeks later, three officials put their names behind the dots while Warsh stayed on hold, making Thursday’s inflation report and the next jobs data the bridge to September. Higher-for-longer rates keep pressure on $KRE regional banks, $IWM small caps, and homebuilders $DHI and $LEN. 🦅

POPS AND DROPS ON STOCKTWITS
TRENDING NOW

$MU -11% | Micron Technology

211K WATCHERS · 59% BULLISH · NORMAL ACTIVITY

Micron Technology extended its memory rout after SK Hynix posted a record 60.5T won operating profit that still missed the 64T won forecast, while $SNDK fell with it. Micron’s community wrestled with the ugly question created by sky-high expectations: If record profits cannot support memory stocks, what can?

$HOOD -6% | Robinhood

99.4K WATCHERS · 43% BULLISH · NORMAL ACTIVITY

Robinhood posted record revenue of $1.31B and EPS of $0.62, but $0.14 per share came from gains tied to deconsolidating a fund while crypto revenue fell 38%. Traders must decide whether 13 business lines above $100M in annualized revenue outweigh the lower-quality boost beneath the headline beat.

$QCOM -11% | Qualcomm

75.7K WATCHERS · 74% BULLISH · LOW ACTIVITY

Qualcomm’s revenue fell 4% to $9.9B and adjusted EPS dropped 20% to $2.21 as handset sales sank 20%, overwhelming 61% growth in automotive. The bullish community is betting diversification arrives before higher memory and supply costs squeeze margins again, a familiar promise now carrying a much less forgiving price tag.

ST EDITOR’S PICKS
Links That Don’t Suck 🌐

📈 Why Is HIMS Stock Down 13% Today?

😨 Fauci takes the Fifth more than 100 times — and Republicans look to contempt charge

🏠️ QCOM Stock Drops Nearly 8% After Hours — Qualcomm’s Q3 EPS Misses, Weak Q4 Outlook Overshadows Revenue Beat

💰️ Arm shares dive after hours despite forecasts above estimates

📺️ U.S.-Iran Updates: Trump says Iran to “get a beating” as war expands with U.S.-Saudi strikes in Iraq

👀 Treasuries Jolted as Fed Hold Trims September Hike Bets

WHAT’S ON DECK
Tomorrow’s Top Things 📋

Macro: Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) (8:30 AM ET), Gross domestic product (GDP) (8:30 AM ET), Weekly jobless claims (8:30 AM ET). 📊
Pre-Market Earnings: $OCGN Ocugen Inc, $AUPH Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc, $NCLH Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd, $MA Mastercard Incorporated – Ordinary Shares – Class A, $MO Altria Group Inc., +61 more. ☀️
After-Market Earnings: $AAPL Apple Inc, $AMZN Amazon.com Inc., $COIN Coinbase Global Inc – Ordinary Shares – Class A, $ROKU Roku Inc – Ordinary Shares – Class A, $RIOT Riot Platforms Inc, +43 more. 🌙

P.S. You can listen to all of these earnings calls on Stocktwits.

Lets Check Out the Big Boys Reporting Tomorrow:

Apple reports fiscal third-quarter results Thursday after the close with shares near record highs, leaving little room for weak iPhone demand, margin pressure, or a soft September outlook.

The RIP: $AAPL fell -0.6% Wednesday after setting a $344.57 record high. Consensus calls for $1.89 EPS on $108.9B in revenue, with iPhone sales near $53B.

Apple grew revenue 17% last quarter as iPhone 17 demand and Services carried the business. Services earns gross margins above 70%, versus roughly 37% for hardware, giving Apple room to absorb higher memory costs. Thursday’s test is whether China, Services, and guidance can support a valuation near 41 times trailing earnings.

The Community Read: The $AAPL room is split 51% bullish before earnings, see what traders priced in ->

AWS Has To Pay ☁️

Amazon reports second-quarter results Thursday after the close following seven straight declines, with AWS growth and margins deciding whether its AI spending looks productive or merely enormous.

The RIP: $AMZN fell -1.8% Wednesday, its seventh consecutive decline. Consensus calls for $1.82 EPS on $196.7B in revenue, with AWS near $40.5B and roughly 31% growth.

AWS grew 28% last quarter, its fastest pace in 15 quarters, so another acceleration would confirm enterprise AI demand is reaching Amazon’s cloud. But Amazon plans roughly $200B in 2026 capital expenditures, making AWS margins and free cash flow as important as revenue. A beat without returns risks getting the Meta treatment.

The Community Read: 67% of the $AMZN room stayed bullish through seven declines, test the thesis ->

Get In Touch 📬

Want to see some change? Email me, Kevin Travers with feedback, and follow me on Stocktwits. Refer a friend for this quarter’s edition of The RIP Forecast 😎 

Terms & Conditions 📝

_{Securities Disclaimer: STOCKTWITS IS NOT A TAX ADVISOR, BROKER, FINANCIAL ADVISOR OR INVESTMENT ADVISOR. THE SERVICE IS NOT INTENDED TO PROVIDE TAX, LEGAL, FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVICE, AND NOTHING ON THE SERVICE SHOULD BE CONSTRUED AS AN OFFER TO SELL, A SOLICITATION OF AN OFFER TO BUY, OR A RECOMMENDATION FOR ANY SECURITY. Trading in such securities can result in immediate and substantial losses of the capital invested. You should only invest risk capital and not capital required for other purposes. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether any investment, security or strategy, or any other product or service, is appropriate or suitable for you based on your investment objectives and personal and financial situation. You should also consult an attorney or tax professional regarding your specific legal or tax situation. The content is to be used for informational and entertainment purposes only and the service does not provide investment advice for any individual. Stocktwits, its affiliates and partners specifically disclaim any and all liability or loss arising out of any action taken in reliance on content, including but not limited to market value or other loss on the sale or purchase of any company, property, product, service, security, instrument, or any other matter. You understand that an investment in any security is subject to a number of risks and that discussions of any security published on the Service will not contain a list or description of relevant risk factors. In addition, please note that some of the stocks about which content is published on the service have a low market capitalization and/or insufficient public float. Such stocks are subject to more risk than stocks of larger companies, including greater volatility, lower liquidity and less publicly available information. Read the full terms & conditions here. 🔍
Author Disclosure: The author of this newsletter does not hold positions in any of the securities or assets mentioned. 📋}