Oil Starved Dow Drops 1,000 Points
CLOSING BELL
Oil Starved Dow Drops 1,000 Points
The market changed direction to fall Thursday, the fifth or sixth day of war in Iran depending who you ask. AI is ripping through earnings reports but the market turned red, big names like Merck and Walmart were pulling the DOW well below 50k, as oil hit $81 a barrel. Right when $80 was reached the Dow fell 1k, before righting itself slightly.
The House failed to pass a war powers resolution Thursday, so for now, it’s all systems go, and all boats are barred from the greatest oil sea highway in the world.
The top story today was Broadcom earnings, a beacon of ‘maybe AI stock gains ain’t done’. To punctuate that, The Trade Desk jumped 18% after a rumor from the Information that OpenAI is in talks to use its ad tech in ChatGPT.
A federal judge ruled the U.S. must start paying out more than $130B in tariffs garnished from consumers in 2025. Over 2,000 companies filed lawsuits, but the process to get the illegal taxes back could take years, Yahoo Finance reported. The White House is convinced they can find a new excuse to inflict a further 15% tariff on everyone soon.
Tomorrow, expect the next basket of jobs numbers, expect 55,000 or so February additions. Low, but sure beats the 15,000 monthly average last year.
AFTER THE BELL
Most Affordable Grocer, Custom Computing, and Rum Report 🍻
Costco’s Membership Machine Holds: The wholesale giant delivered another steady quarter as value-seeking consumers kept filling warehouses, with $COST posting $4.58 diluted EPS on $68.24B in net sales for fiscal Q2 2026. Digital comps surged 22.6%. Total comparable sales were up 7.4% for the quarter.
The slight revenue miss won’t move the needle. Costco’s model runs on membership loyalty and basket size, and both held firm through a choppy macro backdrop. Investors want confirmation that membership renewal rates held after October’s fee increase and that margins haven’t slipped. 🛒
Marvell’s Beat-and-Raise Breaks the Streak: The custom silicon specialist delivered the beat-and-raise investors needed, with $MRVL jumping 13% after hours. Eat your heart out hardware bulls. The stock had shed nearly 20% over three months heading in, making execution the only thing that mattered tonight.
$0.80 non-GAAP EPS vs. $0.79 estimate. $2.22B in revenue vs. $2.21B estimate, up 22.1% year-over-year. Matt Murphy, Marvell’s Chairman and CEO said growth will accelerate all year, “In addition to our strong results and outlook, our design wins in fiscal 2026 hit an all-time record, which we expect will continue to fuel our future growth.”
The real catalyst is Q1 guidance. A $2.4B Q1 target beat estimates, and signals AI infrastructure demand is accelerating, not plateauing. CEO Matt Murphy’s comment that year-over-year growth will accelerate each quarter through FY2027 is the kind of forward signal that rerates a beaten-down AI name fast. 🔵
Rumble Crosses $100M Revenue Milestone: The alt-media platform hit a company first in 2025, surpassing $100M in annual revenue for the first time as $RUM posted $27.1M in Q4 revenue, up 9% sequentially.
The year-over-year Q4 decline stings. Advertising fell but subscriptions and licensing picked up the slack. 📺
STOCKS
Nvidia Stops Sending Chips To China? Again? 🧧
Apparently you can buy these things right off Newegg, but buyer beware 😀
Nvidia’s China Wildcard Resurfaces: The chipmaker made yet another flip flop on China, which may explain why revenue for exports to the tech production giant once again did not turn up in the firm’s report.
According to a Financial Times report, Nvidia redirected TSMC capacity earmarked for H200 China shipments toward its next-gen Vera Rubin servers.
The regulatory saga has dragged on for months. Nvidia received U.S. licenses as late as last week to ship small H200 quantities to China. All they needed was approval from Beijing. Now, it looks like that approval doesn’t matter. Bloomberg reported that the Trump Admin was now moving toward a license to ship chips to China, and companies that want to buy AMD or Nvidia chips would have to get a stamp of approval.
China once represented at least 20% of Nvidia’s data center revenue in 2023 before export restrictions forced by Uncle Sam to pivot to the H200 as a workaround chip. That workaround is now being shelved in favor of the Vera Rubin ramp, effectively writing off near-term China upside. Retail sentiment on Stocktwits remains cautiously optimistic but chatter is down over 82% in the past week, and shares are down nearly 2% year-to-date despite a blowout Q4 print. 📉
MACRO NEWS
Don’t Let The Door Hit You on the Way Out 🚪
President Trump fired Noem from her Department of Homeland Security Secretary Cabinate Position, slating Oklahoma Republican Senator Markwayne Mullin to replace her. The Democrats reportedly said that will not move them to pass DHS funding, though it is a start. Noem famously had a horrific accusation prepared within hours of the public shootings of both Minneapolis nurse Alex Pretty and Renee Good, calling them terrorists.
Yesterday, NC GOP Senator Thom Tillis called her leadership a disaster. Noem is the first of Trumps cabinate to get the ax after he played musical chairs with 14 cabinet sackings in his first term. Did a new song just begin?
IN PARTNERSHIP WITH RAD INTEL
Last Call Before the Share Price Chan
Global ad spend at $1T+ in 2025, and they’re projecting another 5%+ increase again this year. When the budget line gets that big, 2 things happen fast. Consolidation accelerates, and entry prices move.
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TRENDING STOCKS
Pops & Drops
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$PDYN ( ▲ 34.05% ) Palladyne AI: surged after upbeat guidance and backlog growth
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$EXPE ( ▲ 13.69% ) Expedia: climbed afternews OpenAI may not go for direct checkout. $BKNG ( ▲ 8.46% ) Booking also jumped on the news.
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$TEAM ( ▲ 7.42% ) Atlassian: popped after software sector regained bullish momentum
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$LYB ( ▲ 6.4% ) LyondellBasell: popped after analysts raised full year outlook
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$USO ( ▲ 5.19% ) Oil Fund: popped after Iran tanker attack ignited rally
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$GLW ( ▼ 6.97% ) Corning: fell after middle east turmoil hit valuation
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$LUV ( ▼ 6.89% ) Southwest: tumbled after rising jet fuel cost concerns
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$MRNA ( ▼ 6.87% ) Moderna: tanked after $950 million patent settlement charge
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$UPS ( ▼ 5.82% ) UPS: slid after dividend date and network restructuring
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$FIX ( ▼ 5.74% ) Comfort Systems: cratered after industrial sector risk off rotation
WHAT’S ON DECK
Tomorrow’s Top Things 📋
Macro: Nonfarm Payrolls (8:30 AM ET), Unemployment Rate (8:30 AM ET), Michigan Consumer Sentiment (10:00 AM ET). 📊
Pre-Market Earnings: $IMPP, $LGVN, $CLPS. ☀️
After-Market Earnings: $PED. 🌙
P.S. You can listen to all of these earnings calls on Stocktwits.
Links That Don’t Suck 🌐
🛢️ How oil price shocks ripple through your wallet, from gas to groceries
😨 United Airlines can permanently ban passengers who don’t wear headphones
🏠️ House Speaker Johnson calls on Texas Rep. Gonzales to drop reelection bid
💰️ Oracle Plans Thousands of Job Cuts in Face of AI Cash Crunch
📺️ IMAX CEO: AI is for efficiency, not to transform film production
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